Cash Yield Optimization: Post-Fed Rate Hike Competitive Landscape

1. 6-Month Narrative Velocity vs. Exposure Friction

2. Theater of Competition Matrix (90-Day Trajectory)

Rate cuts could be right around the corner, so now's the time to maximize your interest earnings with a high APY.

Today's CD rates may be the highest you'll find for some time.

APYs are already on the way down. Here's where you can still score a great one and maximize your returns.

Rate cuts could be right around the corner, so now's the time to maximize your interest earnings with a high APY.

Today's CD rates may be the highest you'll find for some time.

APYs are already on the way down. Here's where you can still score a great one and maximize your returns.

From money market funds to Treasury bills, where experts are stashing their cash — and some of the yields they're finding.

The Federal Reserve increased its target range for the first time since 2023. Here’s how savers can make the most of higher interest rates.

The Fed could issue its first interest rate hike since 2023 this week. Here's where to move your money if that occurs.

What do higher rates mean for borrowers and savers?

Savings rates could climb if the Fed hikes rates. Here's how to position your cash before that happens.

The Fed's quarter-point rate hike will impact a range of consumer borrowing and savings costs, including mortgages, credit cards, car loans and deposit rates.

Here's how the Fed's rate decision could impact savings products, various types of loans, and credit cards.

With no change to the federal funds rate, the target range remains between 3.50% and 3.75%. Savers probably won’t see large rate swings in their accounts.

Latest news and headlines related to the Federal Reserve.

Even after the Fed’s rate cut, top savings, CD, brokerage, and Treasury accounts are offering up to 5.50% returns. But today’s best yields won’t last long, so act fast.

No matter your balance, make sure your cash is working for you—and staying ahead of inflation. This week’s best safe-haven accounts offer 4% to 5% returns.

Inflation data suggests that we'll get at least one rate hike this year. That has interesting implications for bonds and savings accounts.

As the Fed holds rates steady, opportunities to earn near 5% on your cash are still out there. Here’s where savers are finding the best returns now.

When interest rates rise, finding the right savings account can be even more valuable.

The Federal Reserve's rate increase pushes savings yields higher and borrowing costs up. Here's how the decision affects savers and people in debt.

You can still earn a 4–5% return with today’s best savings accounts, money markets, CDs, and Treasuries. But with Fed cuts looming, you may want to make your move now.

See where your cash can still earn standout yields—up to 5%—before the Fed’s expected rate cut, including today’s top savings, CD, Treasury, and brokerage accounts.

The Federal Reserve influences almost every financial decision you make, from buying a home or car to looking for a new job.

Interest rates were raised by the Fed for the fourth time this year to help combat high inflation.

The central bank announced that the federal funds rate will stay at the Fed's current level of between 3.5 and 3.75 percent.

Despite mounting pressure from President Trump, Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh announced rate hikes to try to bring inflation rates closer to their 2% target.

The Fed has increased its benchmark interest rate for the first time since 2023. Here's the potential impact on borrowers and savers.

This could be just the tip of the iceberg.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday for the first time since 2023 in an effort to quell stubbornly-high inflation.

Fed raises rates 25 bps to fight stubborn inflation, flags more tightening, higher neutral rate and new GDP/inflation outlook.

The Federal Reserve has been under pressure to hike interest rates, which influence mortgages and savings, to help curb rising prices.

The quarter-point rate increase pushes the Fed’s benchmark rate to about 3.9%.

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday for the first time since 2023, saying the move is needed to bring stubbornly high inflation closer to its 2% target.

Industry update and market analysis regarding Now that the Fed raised rates, where to score the best yields on your cash.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates Wednesday — a move that puts new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh squarely at odds with Trump.

The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike, the central bank's first rate hike since 2023. How does it affect you in New Jersey?

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate Wednesday for the first time since 2023 in an effort to quell stubbornly-high inflation, a move that could spur a sharp response from the White House. The quarter-point increase lifts the Fed’s key rate to about 3.9% and, over time, could result in higher […]

The Fed is widely expected to raise its benchmark interest rate to combat stubborn inflation. That could make it more expensive to borrow money to buy a car or carry a balance on a credit card.

The Fed raised its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, the first hike since July 2023.

The Fed increased its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points to battle resurgent inflation driven by soaring energy prices.

Here’s how to read the Federal Reserve’s economic projections like a pro.

Inflation has been above 2% for five years. The Fed just decided that was long enough.

Fed Raises Rates: 4 Places To Put Your Cash for High Returns Commitment to Our Readers GOBankingRates' editorial team is committed to bringing you unbiased reviews and information. We use data-driven methodologies to evaluate financial products and services - our reviews and ratings are not influenced by advertisers. You can read more about our editorial guidelines and our products and services review methodology. 20 Years Helping You Live Richer Reviewed by Experts Trusted by Millions of Readers In its continued effort toward a 2% target inflation rate, the Federal Reserve announced its 11th federal funds rate hike on July 26. This 0.25% increase brought interest rates to a 22-year high. In a recent press conference, the Fed’s Chairman Jerome Powell also suggested that the next meeting in September could involve another hike if economic conditions call for it. While higher rates can mean trouble for borrowers, they benefit you as a saver, especially if you know where to put your money for the best returns. Take a look at these four high-earning options. High-Yield Savings Accounts Based on the July data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), you might earn an average interest rate of just 0.42% with a regular savings account. High-yield savings accounts, however, can get you much better rates of 4% or higher. You’ll often find the best annual percentage yield (APY) through online banks such as Ally or SoFi. But if the lack of a physical branch matters, you can shop around for accounts through local banks and credit unions. In exchange for the higher rate, you might need to make a larger opening deposit than with a traditional savings account. Otherwise, the account functions like a regular savings account, including any transfer limits per cycle your bank sets. Certificates of Deposit A certificate of deposit (CD) is where you deposit your money for a set time — often three months to five years — and usually earn a fixed rate. You get the interest and original deposit upon maturity. However, you could withdraw the money early and pay a penalty. The FDIC’s national average rates ranged from 1.11% to 1.72% depending on CD length. However, some financial institutions pay much better rates, especially with short-term CDs. For example, U.S. Bank offered a 4.95% APY on 11-month CDs, and Capital One offered a 4.85% APY on its 12-month CDs. Choosing the right CD term and considering your need for liquidity is important. To balance liquidity and returns, you might look into how to use a CD laddering strategy. Money Market Accounts If you need flexibility for your savings, a money market account can provide that and an attractive yield. It operates similarly to a high-yield savings account except that you may get a debit card or write checks from the account. While the FDIC showed a 0.63% national average rate for these accounts, you can do much better, especially if you make a large deposit. U.S. Bank listed a 4.50% APY with a $25,000 minimum balance, and Discover showed a 4.25% APY for account balances of at least $100,000. Be aware that a money market account’s flexibility could hinder your earnings goal if you keep spending money from it. Also, consider any minimum balance requirements to keep your good rate. Government Securities Available through the TreasuryDirect website, Treasury bills (T-bills) and I Bonds can offer high returns. Since they’re from the U.S. government, they’re considered extremely secure investments. Sold through auctions, T-bills come in $100 increments and pay a fixed rate. You can choose from maturity options of four to 52 weeks, and selling them early penalty-free is possible. The U.S. Department of the Treasury reported T-bill rates exceeding 5% in July. I Bonds are savings bonds with an interest rate consisting of fixed and inflation-based portions. They come in electronic form starting at $25 and in paper form beginning at $50. While I Bonds have a 30-year term, you can cash them out after a year, though a penalty applies before five years. Through the end of October, the I Bond interest rate is 4.30%.

The highest rates in more than two decades mean that money is no longer cheap. In this new era of monetary policy, these are the important moves you should be making with more money. 1. Keep a long-term mindset Differing expectations about what the Fed could do with rates in the months ahead could lead to more market volatility. Plunging stocks mean pain for investors, and the possibility of a recession or even higher Fed interest rates could worsen the volatility. But don’t succumb to market volatility and change your approach. Remember, a diversified portfolio and a long-term mindset protect you through the most brutal times in the stock market. 2. Pay down debt Consumers with fixed-rate debt, commonly on loans such as mortgages, won’t feel any impact when the Fed raises rates. But Americans are more fragile if they have a variable-rate loan, especially if it’s debt on a high-interest credit card. The average credit card rate is hovering at the highest levels ever recorded, thanks to the Fed’s recent inflation fight, according to Bankrate data. Consider consolidating that debt with a balance-transfer card to help you make a bigger dent in your principal balance, with some cards offering borrowers 0 percent introductory annual percentage rates (APRs) for up to 21 months. However, the time to take advantage may be now. Consumers may find it tougher to get approved for one of these offers — or issuers may get rid of them altogether — if the economy ever takes a turn for the worse. Homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) might want to consider refinancing into a fixed-rate loan. “You don’t want to be a sitting duck for higher interest rates on your credit card or home equity line of credit,” McBride says. Home equity lines of credit have also historically been a cheaper way to borrow money, but that’s now looking like a relic of a low-rate era with HELOC rates now pushing 9 percent. 3. Boost your emergency savings With the economic outlook uncertain, now’s an important time to take a careful look at your finances and find ways to boost your emergency fund if you don’t already have the recommended six to nine months’ worth of expenses stashed away. But the silver-lining to rising rates: Savers can find the best yields in over a decade that can even help them grow their purchasing power, with many yields at online banks now beating inflation. 4. Find the best place for your cash

Half Yearly Bi-Annual Monetary Policy Mpc Announced Policy Decision On July 27, 2026 REGULATORY SANDBOX TESTING NEW TECHNOLOGIES, PROMOTING INNOVATION, FOSTERING ECONOMIC GROWTH Read more about TESTING NEW TECHNOLOGIES, PROMOTING INNOVATION, FOSTERING ECONOMIC GROWTHCall for Papers National Conference on Pakistan Economy Read More about National Conference on Pakistan EconomyStay current with all SBP updates — from regulations to economic insights A snapshot of Pakistan’s key financial and economic indicators SBP Policy Rate 11.50%p.a. SBP Overnight Reverse (Repo) Ceiling Rate 12.50%p.a. SBP Overnight Reverse (Floor) Rate 10.50%p.a. SBP’s Reserves Bank’s Reserves Total Reserves Weighted - average overnight repo rate As on 30-Jul-26 11.21%p.a. Tenor BID Offer 3-M 11.44 11.69 6-M 11.53 11.78 12-M 11.6 12.1 PIB Auction (Fixed Rate) 04-Aug-26 MTB 13-May-26 Floating Rate PIB (Semi-Annual Coupon) 23-Jun-26 Floating Rate PIB (Quarterly Coupon) 04-Feb-25 As on 31-Jul - 2026 M2M Revaluation Rate Weighted Average Rate BID Offer MTBs Tenor Cut-off Yield 1-M 11.3504% 3-M 11.5154% 6-M 11.7951% 12-M 11.9938% Fixed - Rate PIB Tenor Cut-off Yield 2-Y 11.4450% 3-Y 11.4900% 5-Y 11.6260% 10-Y 12.1400% 15-Y 12.2850% (as on Apr July 06, 2026) Floating - Rate PIBs (Quarterly Coupon) Tenor Cut-off Yield 2-Y Bids Rejected 3-Y Bids Rejected Floating - Rate PIBs (Half-Yearly Coupon) Tenor Cut-off Yield 10-Y Bids Rejected *(as on April 29, 2026) GIS FRR Tenor Cut-off Rental Rate/ Price 3-Y 100.2842 5-Y 100.0022 GIS VRR Tenor Cut-off Rental Rate/ Price 3-Y 99.0800 5-Y 98.7600 Explore our roles and responsibilities Supporting SBP’s vision and functions Digital financial solutions that work for all Pakistanis Browse trending topics – from speeches to podcasts Accessibility Tools Invert Colours Grayscale Low Saturation Links Highlight Font Size Line Height Letter Spacing Text Align Contrast Hide image Hide video Change Cursors

The highest rates in more than two decades mean that money is no longer cheap. In this new era of monetary policy, these are the important moves you should be making with more money. 1. Keep a long-term mindset Differing expectations about what the Fed could do with rates in the months ahead could lead to more market volatility. Plunging stocks mean pain for investors, and the possibility of a recession or even higher Fed interest rates could worsen the volatility. But don’t succumb to market volatility and change your approach. Remember, a diversified portfolio and a long-term mindset protect you through the most brutal times in the stock market. 2. Pay down debt Consumers with fixed-rate debt, commonly on loans such as mortgages, won’t feel any impact when the Fed raises rates. But Americans are more fragile if they have a variable-rate loan, especially if it’s debt on a high-interest credit card. The average credit card rate is hovering at the highest levels ever recorded, thanks to the Fed’s recent inflation fight, according to Bankrate data. Consider consolidating that debt with a balance-transfer card to help you make a bigger dent in your principal balance, with some cards offering borrowers 0 percent introductory annual percentage rates (APRs) for up to 21 months. However, the time to take advantage may be now. Consumers may find it tougher to get approved for one of these offers — or issuers may get rid of them altogether — if the economy ever takes a turn for the worse. Homeowners with an adjustable-rate mortgage or a home equity line of credit (HELOC) might want to consider refinancing into a fixed-rate loan. “You don’t want to be a sitting duck for higher interest rates on your credit card or home equity line of credit,” McBride says. Home equity lines of credit have also historically been a cheaper way to borrow money, but that’s now looking like a relic of a low-rate era with HELOC rates now pushing 9 percent. 3. Boost your emergency savings With the economic outlook uncertain, now’s an important time to take a careful look at your finances and find ways to boost your emergency fund if you don’t already have the recommended six to nine months’ worth of expenses stashed away. But the silver-lining to rising rates: Savers can find the best yields in over a decade that can even help them grow their purchasing power, with many yields at online banks now beating inflation. 4. Find the best place for your cash

In September, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the start of a long-awaited easing cycle, as per a report. The Fed also signaled more cuts ahead, and markets now expect rates could drop as low as 3.25%–3.50% by 2026, according to a Moneywise report. The move brings some relief for borrowers, but for savers, it could mean the end of a period of unusually high returns on cash. Retirees and others living off interest income may now find it harder to earn the same yields they enjoyed over the past year. Still, financial experts say the core principles haven’t changed. Your emergency funds and short-term savings should remain in safe, low-risk, liquid accounts, while money that you won’t need soon can be invested for higher long-term returns. For those wondering where to put their cash now, here are a few popular options that still offer solid yields for now, as reported by Moneywise. ALSO READ: Cash App checks are coming - $12.5 million settlement means up to $147 for users High-yield savings accounts Even with the recent rate cuts, some online banks such as AdelFi and Varo are still offering yields of around 5% as of October 2, according to the report. These accounts are ideal for money you might need to access quickly, though experts warn that these attractive rates could drop if the Fed continues to ease, as per the Moneywise report.Certificates of Deposit If you’d prefer to lock in a rate before it falls further, CDs can help. The highest rate available right now is 4.45% from LendingClub for an eight-month term, as reported by Moneywise. One- and two-year CDs are also yielding just over 4%, offering a way to preserve current returns through the next wave of cuts, according to Moneywise.ALSO READ: Verizon stock shrinks 4% after ex-PayPal CEO Dan Schulman named new CEO - here're the challenges he faces Treasury bills T-bills are another safe option, backed by the US government, as per the report. They mature within a year and don’t require paying state or local taxes on interest. The current yield on T-bills is around 4%, making them a steady choice for conservative savers.Money market funds

Remember: The whole point of this exercise is to reduce risk. In raising cash, you can effectively rebalance at the same time by whittling down positions that have become so big as to become risky. Now, on to what to buy. How to Allocate Your Cash Now for the fun part. You've decided to rotate to cash. Now what? If there is a silver lining to the Fed's tightening, it would be that interest rates are currently the highest we've seen in year. At time of writing, you can find three-year CDs yielding 2% to 3%. That's still far below the rate of inflation, but it's an improvement over the near zero rates that have prevailed for years. If you're investing via your 401(k) plan, you'll likely have a money market or "stable value" fund option. These will generally be invested in Treasuries, commercial paper and other short-term cash equivalents. A good example is the Vanguard Cash Reserves Federal Money Market Fund (VMRXX, $1.00). The current yield is 1.4%. If you are investing via your brokerage account, a money market fund could also work, but you might also have more liquid ETF options such as the SPDR Bloomberg Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL, $91.43). When investing in ETFs, it's important to note that your broker might charge you trading commissions. Many brokers have switched to commission-free trading, but not all have. If liquidity isn't your most pressing concern, you could roll your excess cash into a CD. CDs benefit from Federal Deposit Insurance Commission (FDIC) protection up to $250,000. If you're willing to lock up your money for five years, it's possible to get an interest rate well above 3%. Just keep in mind that you might have to pay a penalty if you need to cash out the CD early. Your local bank might or might not offer a competitive yield. It's really going to depend on how badly they need the money on any given day. But to find the most competitive rates in your area, you can try a site such as BankRate.com, which ranks your local banks by yield. Deciding whether to go to cash, and how to go to cash, is a complicated one, and one that you shouldn't make on a whim. But it's an important part of the portfolio management process, and it's something you should revisit at least annually – not just during viral outbreaks.

If a player has more than 7 cards in their hand at the end of a turn, they need to discard the excess cards into the discard pile in the middle. What if you accidentally pick up too many cards? Take the cards that were mistakenly picked up and reshuffle them into the draw pile. Can you play cards other than money into your bank? What are the Monopoly Deal rules for your bank? Yes and no. A player cannot lay property cards in their bank. But a player can play action cards, rent cards, house/hotel cards and of course money cards in their bank. These cards will have they monetary value on the corner of the card stating what they are worth as money in your bank. For example, a Wild Rent card is worth $3 million as money in your bank. Some players will chose to put the Wild Rent card in their bank if they are playing a 2 person game and they do not have any properties on the table where they can charge at least $3 million in rent which is the equivalent to the monetary value of the card. Since the player can only charge one player with this card, it is worth more to them to just bank the $3 million vs charge one player just $1 million in rent for example.

In September, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the start of a long-awaited easing cycle, as per a report. The Fed also signaled more cuts ahead, and markets now expect rates could drop as low as 3.25%–3.50% by 2026, according to a Moneywise report. The move brings some relief for borrowers, but for savers, it could mean the end of a period of unusually high returns on cash. Retirees and others living off interest income may now find it harder to earn the same yields they enjoyed over the past year. Still, financial experts say the core principles haven’t changed. Your emergency funds and short-term savings should remain in safe, low-risk, liquid accounts, while money that you won’t need soon can be invested for higher long-term returns. For those wondering where to put their cash now, here are a few popular options that still offer solid yields for now, as reported by Moneywise. ALSO READ: Cash App checks are coming - $12.5 million settlement means up to $147 for users High-yield savings accounts Even with the recent rate cuts, some online banks such as AdelFi and Varo are still offering yields of around 5% as of October 2, according to the report. These accounts are ideal for money you might need to access quickly, though experts warn that these attractive rates could drop if the Fed continues to ease, as per the Moneywise report.Certificates of Deposit If you’d prefer to lock in a rate before it falls further, CDs can help. The highest rate available right now is 4.45% from LendingClub for an eight-month term, as reported by Moneywise. One- and two-year CDs are also yielding just over 4%, offering a way to preserve current returns through the next wave of cuts, according to Moneywise.ALSO READ: Verizon stock shrinks 4% after ex-PayPal CEO Dan Schulman named new CEO - here're the challenges he faces Treasury bills T-bills are another safe option, backed by the US government, as per the report. They mature within a year and don’t require paying state or local taxes on interest. The current yield on T-bills is around 4%, making them a steady choice for conservative savers.Money market funds

Palladium as an Investment Palladium has become an increasingly popular investment vehicle. Unlike gold, which is used primarily for jewelry and investment purposes, palladium is also used-heavily in modern industry. In 2019, the price of palladium overtook the price of gold, catching the attention of investors. As a hard, dollar-denominated asset, palladium can potentially provide some significant benefits to an investment portfolio. Some of the potential benefits include: Portfolio diversification Inflation hedge Upside price potential Hedge against currency weakness Zero counterparty risk There are numerous ways to make investments in this metal. Investors can buy shares of companies involved in the mining or production of palladium. There are also ETFs available designed to track the performance of palladium. For investors who want the physical metal, both palladium bullion coins and bars are available for purchase. In addition to bullion coins, various proof versions are also available. As palladium becomes increasingly popular with investors, more varieties of coins, bars and possibly even rounds may be seen.

In September, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee lowered the federal funds rate to a range of 4%–4.25%, marking the start of a long-awaited easing cycle, as per a report. The Fed also signaled more cuts ahead, and markets now expect rates could drop as low as 3.25%–3.50% by 2026, according to a Moneywise report. The move brings some relief for borrowers, but for savers, it could mean the end of a period of unusually high returns on cash. Retirees and others living off interest income may now find it harder to earn the same yields they enjoyed over the past year. Still, financial experts say the core principles haven’t changed. Your emergency funds and short-term savings should remain in safe, low-risk, liquid accounts, while money that you won’t need soon can be invested for higher long-term returns. For those wondering where to put their cash now, here are a few popular options that still offer solid yields for now, as reported by Moneywise. ALSO READ: Cash App checks are coming - $12.5 million settlement means up to $147 for users High-yield savings accounts Even with the recent rate cuts, some online banks such as AdelFi and Varo are still offering yields of around 5% as of October 2, according to the report. These accounts are ideal for money you might need to access quickly, though experts warn that these attractive rates could drop if the Fed continues to ease, as per the Moneywise report.Certificates of Deposit If you’d prefer to lock in a rate before it falls further, CDs can help. The highest rate available right now is 4.45% from LendingClub for an eight-month term, as reported by Moneywise. One- and two-year CDs are also yielding just over 4%, offering a way to preserve current returns through the next wave of cuts, according to Moneywise.ALSO READ: Verizon stock shrinks 4% after ex-PayPal CEO Dan Schulman named new CEO - here're the challenges he faces Treasury bills T-bills are another safe option, backed by the US government, as per the report. They mature within a year and don’t require paying state or local taxes on interest. The current yield on T-bills is around 4%, making them a steady choice for conservative savers.Money market funds

A CONCISE GUIDE TO WORLD CONQUEST​   By Kingshorsey​   The objective of this guide is to provide a clear, accessible overview of the general strategy underlying world conquest (WC) runs on Ironman with no save scumming. It focuses on the concepts, mindset, and task prioritization necessary to succeed from most starts. It prioritizes information by order of importance, omitting less critical details. This is because there is a reasonable margin for error in all but the most difficult WC runs. People who fail do so because they make large strategic errors, not because they forget to micro or min/max here and there. The guide does assume the player is familiar with basic game mechanics and knows how to win wars. It assumes competence but not mastery. It does not rely on any exploits, since people differ in their willingness to use them, or on extreme bonus stacking, because those strategies cannot be generalized. This guide is current for 1.24.1 (Japan). It takes account of all content DLCs but does not rely on any of the recent ones.   STATING THE CHALLENGE   For the “World Conquerer” Steam achievement, you must play on Ironman mode and on normal difficulty or higher. By game end on Jan. 2, 1821, there must be no tags left in the game other than the player's and the player's non-tributary subjects. This means that there can be no subjects of subjects, such as a vassal's colonial nation. It also means full colonization is not required. Also, you don't have to have everything cored. A related achievement is the one-faith WC, in which all provinces (except uncolonized) must be your religion. The EU4 community has come up with several other variants of the WC run, such as the one-tag (no subjects except colonial nations) and one-culture WCs. There are no separate achievements for these, only community bragging rights. They do not alter the basic structure of a WC run other than forcing you to be more efficient and influencing idea group selection. This task can be helpfully quantified in terms of the development you need to acquire. According to the EU4 wiki, in 1.23, total world development at the earliest start date was 19,210, including uninhabited, colonizable provinces. Whatever the exact starting number, it will trend upward over time, as development and colonization contribute more than horde razing detracts. Higher difficulties yield higher end totals, because AI bonuses lead to more development and colonization. Based on WC after action reports from recent patches, total world development at game end ranges from about 22K on normal up to about 27K on very hard. Probably about 2-4K of that is in colonial nations, which may need to be conquered but usually don't cost monarch points. Acquiring other people's development usually requires conquest and monarch points. The exception is personal unions The precise number will depend on how the development is acquired. The following table lists base costs before modifiers: Fed to a subject but never integrated - 0 points (for you) Conquered colony on different continent - 0 overextension, 0 points if fed to colonial nation Cored as territorial core, not stated - 5 admin points Fed to subject, then integrated - 8 diplo points Cored and stated - 10 admin points Essentially, then, success comes down to answering yes to two questions: 1) Can I generate enough monarch points for my nation and subjects to own (but not necessarily core) all provinces by game end? This is a question of monarch point efficiency. 2) Can I win all the wars I need to in time to own all the provinces by game end? This is a question of pacing. If you play at all sensibly, you should have no problem getting enough monarch points, so a WC run is mostly a question of pacing. To set the correct pace, we need to understand the overall shape of a game.   THE SHAPE OF A GAME - BLOBBILITY   A WC run is divided into three phases. 1) Preparation: game start to age of absolutism start (˜1610) 2) Transition: age of absolutism start to admin and diplo tech 23 (˜1700) 3) Blobbageddon: admin and diplo tech 23 to game end Before detailing each phase, let's understand why this is the most helpful way to divide the game. It reflects the extreme difference in blobbing ability (blobbility) between game start and game end. Before the age of absolutism, minus some modifiers you've cobbled together from ideas, CBs, and/or situational bonuses, you pay full coring cost and full war score cost for provinces while taking full aggressive expansion and overextension. You are also limited in the number of nations you can attack without penalties from no-CB wars or truce breaking. All of these are bottlenecks, and all are substantially lessened in the transitional period. Once the age of absolutism begins, you unlock the country modifier absolutism, which is the major contributor to another country modifier you unlock about the same time, administrative efficiency. Every 1% admin eff. grants a 1% reduction, multiplicative with other modifiers, to coring cost, province war score cost, overextension, and aggressive expansion—everything holding you back. 100 absolutism grants 40% admin eff. You also get 10% admin eff. each from admin techs 17, 23, and 29. At diplo tech 23, you unlock the advanced CBs nationalism (50% aggressive expansion and war score cost for same culture group provinces) and imperialism (75%, 75% against almost everyone else). So, by admin and diplo tech 23, just from absolutism and tech you can have the best general-purpose CBs and 60% of the 70% admin eff. you're going to get. Here's a quick comparison to illustrate how big a deal this is. Taking and making a territorial core out of a 20 development province, ignoring other modifiers, will have very different consequences. Game start, no discounts: 100 base admin cost, ~25% war score cost, 20% overextension, 15 base AE, 36 month coring time A realistic scenario around 1500: admin + inf ideas, conquest CB w/ claim 65 base admin cost, ~25% war score cost, 20% overextension, 12 base AE, 23.4 month coring time A realistic scenario around 1700: 60% admin eff., admin+inf+dip ideas, imperialism CB 30 base admin cost, ~6% war score cost, 6% overextension, 3.6 base AE, 27 month coring time Comparing our two realistic scenarios, in 1700 we're paying less than half the admin points and about one fourth the war score while receiving less than a third of the overextension and AE. Only coring time is unaffected. There are other ways to stack some more coring cost and time reduction, but coring time remains the variable most dependent on national ideas and situational factors like permanent claims. (Note: There are hard minimums to some costs. Minimum coring cost is 2 points per dev for a full core, so 1 for territorial, before admin eff. is applied. Minimum coring time is 6 months. I think AE reduction caps at -90%.) The conclusion is that development acquisition speeds up over time at a rate far faster than linear. 90%+ of your development will be acquired after 1600. This is the point on which first time WCers most need to reject their intuition and adjust their expectations. Positively, around 1600, you have far more potential ahead of you than you thought possible. Negatively, you have a proportional amount of work in store for you. Once you grasp that game play (and sometimes game performance!) slows down as blobbility scales up, you may realize that WC is not for you. If so, that's fine.   GOALS FOR EACH PHASE   So, what should you focus on in each Phase? We can discover this by working backwards from an ideal endgame. By about 1700, your nation needs to be configured so that you have no concerns other than conquering land and getting rid of overextension as fast as possible. What specifically enables this? Your army must be of sufficient quality and force limit that it is capable of cleanly, quickly winning any war and often engaging in multiple wars. So, your economy and manpower pool must be able to support this near constant warfare. Furthermore, all of your idea groups that contribute to monarch point efficiency and pacing need to be in place, so you can do something with all that land. To achieve this, you should prepare from game start.   In the PREPARATION PHASE, your goals are 1) to build an economic base, 2) to secure avenues for expansion, and 3) to ensure you can generate max absolutism as soon as the age arrives. In building an economic base, quality of development is preferable to sheer quantity. You want both income now and income potential later. Once again, understanding the shape of the game is key. Early, tax and gold income usually contribute the most; late game, trade income will dominate, and usually production will surpass taxes. Thus, early game expansion should prioritize seizing and boosting gold provinces for quick cash while setting up to win the trade game. By 1610, you should have conquered in such a way that you dominate a valuable trade node into which you can continue to funnel more and more wealth. The end nodes in Europe are optimal, but any node is fine if you can feed it rich land while limiting outflow (e.g., Zanzibar, Yumen, Persia). Trade company land and colonial nations are valuable even if you aren't a colonizer or can't make full use of their trade potential at first. Those extra merchants will come into play, and tariffs and gold from CNs can grant a considerable economic boost. Also, based on institution spread mechanics, the tech disparity between Western nations and Asian trade company lands will be the greatest around 1550-1650. Asians get the least benefit from trade companies and CNs, simply based on the Western flow of trade. A good benchmark for your economic base is whether you can support a force limit with a good army composition (cannons) that lets you keep winning wars quickly and cleanly, while still having the cash to hire higher-level advisors, particularly in admin and dip. Advisors are the principle way to convert cash to monarch points, so leveling them up is a good indicator of how ready you are to accelerate expansion. To secure avenues for expansion, there are a few things to keep in mind. First, there's the raw geography. Do you have enough people to attack so that you're not sitting around waiting for truce timers to expire or forced into inefficient no CB wars? Second, there's the diplomatic angle. Can you time your conquests in such a way that you either don't accumulate too much aggressive expansion or will be able to ignore it? Generally, you can spread your conquests, focus them on a particular group, or combine both methods. Even if your strategy relies on focusing, you will need access to be able to attack a sufficient number of nations in the target group. Also, you should have filled out most or all of your idea groups that save monarch points or speed up conquest. To ensure you can generate max absolutism when the age hits, see the guide linked below. You will need about 1,000 stated development that you can lower autonomy on. You should also save up some admin and mil points to raise stability and strengthen government. Maintaining absolutism requires you to stop raising autonomy on rebellious provinces, so this implies that you already have in place a way to prevent rebels or deal with them quickly. An In-Depth Guide to Absolutism: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Oi9DkyqoPA&t=476s In the preparation phase, vassals function mostly to ease the burden on admin points and to hold high unrest land land until you have the bonuses to deal with it. Vassal claims diversify your expansion options, and core reconquest CBs can drastically reduce your AE.   In the TRANSITION PHASE, your goals are 1) to generate max absolutism as soon as possible, 2) to fill out any remaining idea groups that assist monarch point efficiency and pacing, 3) to complete your economic base, 4) to maximize your force limit and manpower pool, and 5) to hit diplo tech 23 on or ahead of time, all while 6) accelerating expansion. The transition phase is probably the trickiest part of the game, because you are balancing different priorities. By far the most important is generating max absolutism, since it has such an outsize effect on the game. For most nations, you will want to trigger the court and country disaster as soon as possible, resolving it successfully to gain the +20 max absolutism. If that takes you above 100, that's not a waste; it's a cushion. If somehow you mess this up and don't ever get 100 absolutism, you can still WC, just a bit less efficiently. Idea groups are discussed below. Completing your economic base depends somewhat on your situation, but it usually means continuing to boost your trade income. You can do this by strategic conquest and by building manufactories. Manufactories are very expensive and pay off only if you reap the increased trade they generate, another reason dominating a trade node was such a priority. Focus on trade also lets you stop stating provinces earlier, thus reducing your admin cost. Local autonomy affects trade power only half as much as it does other values. Also, trade companies generate double trade power and receive no autonomy penalty to goods produced, making them the most monarch point efficient provinces in the game. Your economic benchmark is the same as earlier: can you support a force limit adequate for your conquest pace and have high-level advisors where you need them? For serious conquest, you need to maximize your force limit and manpower pool. Because you're going to be stating less land from now on, you will rely more on buildings to increase these. You will probably also be switching to mostly merc infantry to preserve manpower and cannons for both combat and sieges. This again highlights the need for an immense economic base. How much force limit do you need? It's situational, but if you ever find yourself thinking you would be winning faster if you had more troops, you need more. Clean, quick wars. Rinse and repeat. I'm sure you understand by now why diplo tech 23 matters. The sooner you get advanced CBs, the sooner the brakes come off. Also, client states are nice. Accelerating expansion must be strategic and careful. At the beginning of the transition phase, you are probably one of the strongest nations, but you're not invulnerable. Coalitions may not kill you, but they can slow you down. Alliances become mainly about preventing coalitions. Quality development is still more important than quantity until your economy and army are so strong that you are truly an unstoppable juggernaut and coalitions won't even bother forming.   In the BLOBBAGEDDON phase, your only goal is to conquer everything as quickly and efficiently as possible. If you know how to wage war and you set yourself up correctly, this should be a straightforward, repetitive process. Your benchmark is how efficiently you are processing close to 100% overextension. Only at this point do you start focusing on the strongest nations. You should look at each nation in terms of the number of wars it will take for you to fully conquer it. Assuming you can win a fairly quick, clean war, start with the highest number and work your way down, picking off tiny nations as the opportunity arises. This will save you from having downtime or needing to break truces at the end. On the other hand, the occasional truce-break isn't a big deal if you have the monarch points to spare and a coalition won't slow you down. Vassal feeding really comes into play here, though it is always useful for balancing power costs. You will constantly be taking more overextension than you can handle, so spreading it among one or more vassals or client states keeps you moving quickly. If you have both influence and diplomatic ideas, plus the +2 dip rep bonus for trading in ivory, you can efficiently cycle vassals, starting new integrations even during the -3 dip rep penalty from the last integration. Alternatively, especially with Mandate of Heaven bonuses, you can simply keep feeding your vassals often enough to keep them loyal. Vassals of 500+ development are fine. Admin and diplo tech also become significantly less important after tech 23. You may want diplo tech 25 for threedeckers and admin tech 27 for that last 10% admin eff. Otherwise, only tech military. Save all those points for processing land. If your capital is in Europe, you can choose essentially to extend your transition phase to around 1710 by activating the Revolution disaster. If you become the revolution target, you get even better CBs and some helpful bonuses. This usually isn't necessary to WC, but it can be helpful, so check it out. If you're running out of time and getting worried, conquer faster and release vassals like crazy to deal with overextension. If that's still not enough, go over 100% overextension and just deal with it. You can even harsh treatment everywhere and fall behind on mil tech if you're just cleaning up stragglers.   GENERAL STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES   When in doubt about a course of action, remember **this key question**: what will most help me use monarch points efficiently and allow me to win quick, clean wars? (efficiency, pacing) **Identify the bottleneck.** If you’re having trouble answering the key question, identify the single variable most holding you back: aggressive expansion, insufficient income, etc. Rectify that problem. **Eat the weak, avoid the strong.** Because nothing slows you down more than having to defend against a superior enemy, do everything possible to delay that possibility. Since a human player with a good strategy will always blob more efficiently than the AI, every year you delay a major confrontation benefits you. Time conquest of trade company land to maximize tech difference. **The first war is to cripple the opponent.** Whenever you encounter a nation that will take multiple wars to conquer, the goal of the first war is to make all subsequent wars as easy as possible. Take their forts, especially those that allow them to shattered retreat where you can't finish their armies. Cripple their income. Nullify any troublesome alliances. **Don't just win, win big.** Maybe it's less fun this way, but every war should be fairly easy. I play on Ironman with no save scums, so minimizing risk is paramount. If necessary, take some loans or corruption and blow your treasury on mercs early to win decisively. It's better than doing so later just to avoid losing. Winning a war in 2 years rather than maybe winning in 5 minimizes risk and gives you time to recover. **Good allies and PUs are better than diplo points.** Going above your relation limit is inefficient but often worthwhile. Early game, good allies help you win wars. Mid game, they watch your back and limit your enemies' blobbing. All through the game, they don't join coalitions against you. Using alliances to prevent coalitions from forming or firing saves you a lot of time and effort. For Christians, taking some shots at PUing large nations often pays off. **Use vassal cores to limit AE and OE.** Early to mid-game, resurrecting a dead nation or vassalizing one that's been eaten by an opponent can yield Reconquest CBs. Late game, you can take a vast swath of territory, release a dead nation inside it, and feed it for much more efficient overextension processing. Example: Mid-game, Bahmanis blobbed over India. First war, take some forts and one Vijayanagar core. Release VJ. Next war, lots of cheap territory. **Strength comes from money; money comes from gold, then trade.** Since money can be converted directly into monarch points, army size, manpower, and future money, it's your most basic resource. Eventually, trade will be its primary component. **Inflation is just a number.** The penalties from inflation don't even come close to the advantages of having more money now. Occasionally, though, war reps are better than gold in a peace deal. **Decide whether you need that land.** Stop stating provinces after you have a sufficient economic and military base. It just wastes admin. Also, if you're not trying to one tag, integrate vassals late game only if you need to make room for more vassals.   IDEA GROUP SELECTION   People agonize over this too much. There are a few no-brainers, a few awful picks, and a lot of room for variation. The early choices matter the most, and order does matter, though there is some flexibility. You may not fill out all your idea groups, because your points are doing more important things late game. Administrative and Influence ideas should definitely be in there for point saving, AE reduction, and a smoother diplomatic game. They should be somewhere in your first four, occasionally five, groups. Exploration ideas, if you can strongly benefit from them, should be your first or second group. You may eventually scrap it for something that contributes more to the endgame. Religious and humanist ideas are situational, but in most cases I prefer religious and take it as my first or second group. Putting all else aside, the CB is fantastic. The fact that it does not require claims saves diplo points, frees up your diplomats, and makes it much easier to juggle truces to prevent coalitions. Catholic nations will rake in papal bonuses with it. The CB also synergizes with colonizing. If you take religious early, you may still be able to take humanist late. If your nation really can't use religious within the first three slots, probably don't take it at all, as the advanced CBs reduce its usefulness. Diplomatic ideas are very useful for further smoothing diplomacy, speeding vassal integration, war score reduction, and some point saving. If you can fit it in early, great. If not, try to fit it in later. Somewhat more useful early in HRE and for Christians seeking PUs. All other admin and diplo idea groups are either never or rarely ideal for WC runs, except as filler. Economic ideas is tempting, but it shines only early on, and is it really worth delaying admin or religious? Most nations that would get a lot of use from econ will also want religious. Military groups -- very situational, depends mostly on early game position. If you have strong national ideas, you don't really need these. For most of the game, you should have plenty of prestige, power projection, army tradition, and absolutism, all yielding morale and discipline bonuses. The principle of eat the weak, avoid the strong makes army quality less critical. Offensive ideas is the most consistently useful for the +20% siege ability, +20% force limit, and general pips where it counts, winning you wars faster. If your nation has crap military ideas, take offensive and quantity or defensive. You'll be ok. You can fill in later idea groups with whatever you want. If you really think you need quantity early on to stay afloat, take it. It saves you money and synergizes well with religious and colonization. If for some reason you are a republic, plutocratic is useful and fits most positions, perhaps replacing humanist. So, here are some examples, not exhaustive. Colonizer: Colonization, Religious, Influence, Administrative, Offensive, Diplomatic, Humanist, whatever or Administrative, Colonization, Religious, Quantity, Influence, whatever Non-colonizer, good expansion opportunities, strong military: Religious, Influence, Administrative, Diplomatic, Offensive, Humanist, whatever Stuck in middle of HRE: Diplomatic, Administrative, Influence, Offensive/Quantity, whatever   CHOOSING A STARTING NATION   Fun is subjective, difficulty is more objective. You should rate the difficulty of a nation in terms of how well its national ideas synergize with WC and how difficult it will be to achieve the goals set for the Preparation Phase (or become HRE emperor and revoke privilegia, see below). Top-tier ideas include reductions to coring cost, war score cost, and aggressive expansion. Ideas that grant good military bonuses will save you from having to take military ideas early. Ideas that reduce unrest or boost religious ideas will save you from having to take humanist ideas. Extra diplomats, diplo rep, and relations are all good. Economic bonuses to goods produced and trade are valuable. Areas where institutions don't spread naturally and can't be developed cheaply will be handicapped in the early game. Also, anything outside the Western tech group will be a bit harder, because their late game units have fewer pips. So, most of the nations you would naturally think of as easy probably are. Other surprisingly easy nations are any that have a good shot at HRE emperor or that can quickly establish a strong economic base. A good example is Kilwa. The gold mines in southern Africa plus quick colonization and domination of the Cape and Zanzibar trade nodes will set you up perfectly. Also, Kilwa has good national ideas for trade and diplomacy.   SOME SPECIFIC SITUATIONS   HRE: The HRE mechanics make it the single biggest variable in the difficulty of a WC run. Revoking the privilegia gives you free vassals, which act as both extra armies and coring machines. Being the HRE also means you don't have to deal with attacking into it. These advantages are so powerful that it almost makes strategy redundant. If you can revoke the privilegia by 1610 or so, the WC is yours to lose. So, if you can become emperor and pass reforms in a timely manner, do so. If you can't or don't want to become emperor, your aim should be to dismantle the HRE in as few wars as possible, because otherwise it slows you down considerably. Asia: At some point, you have to deal with Ming. You may just have to accept tributary status and sacrifice monarch point efficiency to get expansion opportunities and a chance to strike when the time is right. This is probably the biggest exception to the "Eat the Weak, Avoid the Strong" principle. A pagan or eastern religion nation that manages to destabilize Ming before the age of absolutism can expand rapidly through the Take Mandate of Heaven CB. But don't actually take the emperorship unless you know what you're doing. Hordes: At some point, you're still going to transition over to a trade-based economy, but you can afford to play in a more reckless style, piling up corruption and keeping high autonomy. You can also somewhat disregard the "Eat the Weak, Avoid the Strong" principle, striking early to cripple future rivals. If you can cripple any 2 of the big 3--Ming, Russia, Ottomans--you should have an easy time ahead of you. New World: Get all the trade funneled to Caribbean, keep as much as you can. Keeping a bordering European nation friendly will get you tech discounts. Loans: There are two play styles, conservative and aggressive. Conservative players aim to be generally fiscally responsible, taking loans never (DDRJake) or only occasionally to ensure decisive wars or to embrace an institution. Aggressive players use loans freely with the intention of snowballing conquests earlier, paying back the loans with the increased earning potential from more development. In the late game, you can take loans with no intention of paying them back. You can WC with either style. Aggressive play can probably WC faster, but it requires more skill.   DLCS:   I assume you have most of the older DLCs up through Rights of Man. You really must have Common Sense and Art of War. The Cossacks makes WC much easier for nations with access to the estates mechanics. At the cost of some tedium, estates offer decent global bonuses and some very helpful province-specific bonuses. Most importantly, you should be able to get 100-200 monarch points of each type from them every 20 years. This really helps out in the early game, when you're filling out key idea groups. Dhimmi estate makes it easy for Muslims to switch religions. Mandate of Heaven is the ultimate DLC for WCers. The age bonuses and golden age mechanic give you everything you could ever want: monarch point saving, reduced AE, reduced war score cost, economy buffs, more/faster absolutism, faster sieges, more loyal vassals, etc. The bonuses also favor religious and colonization ideas. State edicts help out a fair amount. The most significant is -10% development cost, making spawning institutions less painful. Bonuses to conversion speed, manpower, and fort defense are also sometimes useful. Finally, it lets you perform an artillery barrage, spending 50 mil points for a permanent +3 to siege rolls. Basically, press the button and win the game. It's better than taking a late game military idea group. Third Rome makes WC significantly easier for the nations that get buttons to press for free stuff. If you're not one of those nations, the fact that the AI can press those buttons makes your life slightly harder. Russia in particular is a good deal stronger. Cradle of Civilization also makes WC easier, again especially for the nations that can press buttons for free stuff. The biggest change is the ability to promote advisors up to level 5, making cash to point conversion even more powerful. It also introduced army professionalism, which helps more than hurts. In the early game, you should have a relatively low force limit and some downtime, so drilling is a decent way to bank professionalism for future advantage, if you can afford it. Note that both these changes strongly favor nations that can build a powerful economic base early on.   EXPLOITS OR NEAR EXPLOITS   This is a somewhat subjective category, including things I personally find distasteful. It’s also not a comprehensive list of exploits. Also, if you're not playing on Ironman, do whatever you want. **Save scumming.** Literally cheating. Do you play chess with infinite takebacks? Of course you can accomplish anything when you suffer no consequences for your mistakes or from bad luck, which is a real part of this game. Now, I do make a backup save every so often in case a legitimate bug (in a Paradox game? Nay!) derails the game. If you insist on save scums, at least keep count, so you know exactly how scummy you are. **Playing past game end.** Unless it was recently patched, opening the statistics menu in Ironman before game end will prevent the game from actually ending, allowing you to play on with achievements enabled. This is flagrant cheating. The time limit is what defines the world conquest as an achievement. Anyone could conquer the world given infinite time. **Infinite nation/ruler/general points.** You can do it. Don't. **Patch 1.20 absolutism.** The developers apparently forgot to cap absolutism bonuses at 100, allowing clever players to go far above that and get extreme admin efficiency. If you did this on 1.20, congratulations for being clever. But if you’re just now rolling back the patch to make WC easier because you can’t do it otherwise, shame on you. **Florrynomics interest rates.** Prior to 1.24, you could stack interest reduction to get a .25% interest rate. Essentially, infinite free money. I think about this much like 1.20 absolutism. Congratulations to the people who figured it out. If you’re rolling back the patch because you can’t WC any other way, shame on you. **Nationalism everywhere.** Siu-King** has demonstrated that once you have a sufficient economic engine, you can afford to unstate pretty much all your land. This can allow you to culture shift to your next target’s culture group, enabling nationalism CB instead of imperialism. The effect is huge. Stacked with enough CCR, you can core so fast overextension ceases to be relevant. This is a really, truly clever strategy, and perfectly legitimate. But it’s so powerful I don’t use it myself.   WHAT IF I STILL CAN’T DO IT?   From anything but the most difficult starts, if you started the game intending to WC but failed to do so, that signals that you either weren’t focusing hard enough on the right goals for each phase or that there is an aspect of the game in which you aren’t sufficiently competent. To be fair, focusing hard enough is a challenge in itself. WC is a grind. The battle in phase 3 is mostly psychological: not slackening the pace, timing your overextension, managing multiple large armies simultaneously. It requires both careful planning and precise execution. If your wars are dragging out, determine whether your economic base is insufficient, you’re focusing on targets too strong too early, or you need to improve your warfare skills. If you’re struggling for monarch points on anything but very hard difficulty, determine whether your economic base is insufficient to get you high level advisors or you are using points highly inefficiently. Sometimes this is a result of wars dragging on or overly frequent truce breaks and no CB wars. If you have trouble building an economic base by ~1610, for most non-horde starts it’s probably a sign that you’re neglecting trade or don’t have a good grasp on EU4 economics.   Happy blobbing, you blobsters.

Peter Miller described arguing against lab leak to be difficult because you can't argue against The Lab Leak Theory, you have to argue against a thousand different lab leak theories that opponents will swap between without any shame(despite them usually contradicting each other). Well, Econoboi [wrote](https://econoboi.substack.com/p/my-journey-to-democratic-socialism) [three](https://econoboi.substack.com/p/my-journey-to-democratic-socialism-6b7) [articles](https://econoboi.substack.com/p/my-journey-to-democratic-socialism-31a) outlining why he's converted from being a filthy neoliberal shill to a new, super based version of Socialism. I have three big problems with the model he lays out: 1. It doesn't fix the problem that he says motivates the model. 2. No sane person would call it Socialism. 3. It wouldn't work in the United States or most countries in the world The first two points don't necessarily mean that the model is a bad idea. The third point will end up invalidating even a substantially scaled-down version of the model in most countries, including the US. # Foundations Econoboi states in his third article: >The single largest problem with private ownership is that it leads to an unequal distribution of power in society. In a [plethora of markets](https://data.census.gov/table/ECNSIZE2022.EC2200SIZECONCEN?q=EC2200SIZECONCEN), ownership and control are highly concentrated as a direct result of the nature of certain markets and market competition itself. So Econoboi wants to "end" private ownership because of the inequality of power that comes with the inequality of wealth involved in private ownership. The example he gives is of Elon Musk being able to donate hundreds of millions of dollars to Trump's campaign like its nothing. >In 2024, Elon Musk [donated $288 million](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/01/31/elon-musk-trump-donor-2024-election/) to support Donald Trump’s election. To make this number make sense to an everyday person, let’s normalize Elon’s net worth to that of the median American. The same year, Elon Musk had a [net worth of $400 billion](https://people.com/what-is-elon-musk-net-worth-11696472). I'm going to take this premise as an assumption going forward, even though I disagree. Econoboi identified this problem but had no viable solution to this since all models of ending private ownership [just](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Holodomor) [really](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Leap_Forward) [suck](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Killing_Fields). It wasn't until Matt Burieng gave Econoboi the following definition: **“Socialism is the collective ownership of the means of production.”** that he started to move towards socialism. This socialism defines any democratic government's operations that could be considered production as socialism. >For instance, in the United States and in most every country, we have publicly operated schools. The public builds, maintains, organizes, regulates, and operates schools through democratic public management. This usually looks like a democratically elected school board making management decisions and consulting the public on how to operate its community’s schools. This is a drastically different definition of socialism from what is commonly used, but, unlike most definitions that involve lots of forfeitures and firing squads, this idea of socialism yields a model that has examples in the real world that at least sort of resemble the idea and are nice places to live. So, what is this wonderful model? # Econoboi's socialism Econoboi's vision of socialism is as follows. 1. The state creates multiple independently managed Sovereign Wealth Funds(SWF) with an investment strategy designed to deliver a consistent rate of return(\~6%), and not give in to political meddling or pursue social goals. Thus, these investment funds will essentially function as conservative profit-maximizing investment funds. 2. Grow the funds over time. 3. 85%-90% of wealth is eventually controlled by the publicly owned funds. 4. Victory. 1. Please note that any new tax/spending/regulations are not necessary for this system 2. Note that there is no expropriation of pre-existing wealth The examples he gives are: >Norway and Singapore are the best examples of these institutions in practice, but they are far from the only examples. Norway and Singapore do indeed have sizable sovereign wealth funds and are pretty nice places to live. Neither are at Econoboi's level of ownership, but they could if they wanted to, and not much about their institutions would change. The big glaring problems here are that this is not socialism in any meaningful way, and this does not impact inequality of power. # Socialism for profit? Let's lay out what is happening in the model as it would likely play out in reality from the perspective of an average worker. 1. You earn a wage working for a privately owned business operated with the sole purpose of maximizing profits, where you have no say in the operations of the business. 2. You pay taxes to the government. 3. The government gives those taxes to the SWFs. 4. The SWFs give that money to privately owned businesses operated with the sole purpose of maximizing profits in exchange for more money later(unless they lose money on their investment). 5. You eventually get more money back later in the form of a pension. If the sovereign wealth fund is really big, then you will get a lot more money back than you paid, but the majority of your life is completely unaffected by the existence of the SWFs. I think if you described this system to 99.99% of socialists throughout history, they would laugh at the idea of calling this Socialism. If you wanted to accurately describe what is happening here, you would probably call it technocratic capitalism(this is what Singapore and Norway are). Maybe you don't care that his model isn't socialist. Calling this model Socialist mostly just confuses people or might lead them to communities that get them to adopt worse ideas later, so they can be real Socialists. What Econoboi cared about was the distribution of power in society. So, how does the model hold up here? Let's lay out the process more abstractly. 1. The sovereign wealth fund acquires assets in exchange for cash. 2. The sovereign wealth fund holds the assets, and the people/firms it bought the assets from hold cash that was used to purchase the assets. 3. These people/firms will find new ways to make returns on their cash savings(Econoboi doesn't outlaw private investment) 4. The pre-existing wealth in society is the same Note that no matter how the SWF gets its money, unless it is seizing wealth, its operations do not impact the preexisting distribution of wealth. This process repeated to the extent Econoboi wants it would probably raise asset prices substantially, which would make it worse. There is a new distribution including the SWF, which will be more equal than it would have been without the SWF(unless the cash was acquired in a very strange way). However, all of this wealth is tied up in the SWFs, where nobody can touch it, usually until they are retired. Which means that the power that comes from wealth is still distributed the same way it was before. In the end, the distribution of power is unaffected by this new model, which defeats the entire point of the endeavor from Econoboi's perspective. Maybe you also don't care about the inequality of power. Maybe you think a SWF is a good idea for some other reason. # What are Sovereign Wealth Funds good for? Sovereign wealth funds have worked out pretty well in at least a few cases, so what merit do they have here in the US or any other random country? To understand this, I think it is important to understand how the good sovereign wealth funds work. I'll focus on Singapore and Norway in this post. # The tropical neoliberal dictatorship For those who don't know, Singapore is an island city-state right at the tip of western Malaysia in the [Straight of Malacca](https://images.mapsofworld.com/answers/2017/06/is-singapore-part-of-india.gif). The People's Action Party(PAP), which has governed the country since it split off form Malaysia in 1965, developed a public service oriented, technocratic, neoliberal culture(they use populist like a [slur](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4gNFFA5vuZQ) ) which has led the country through 60 years of foreign direct investment and market oriented rapid development with low taxes and strong property rights. This approach has made it one of the wealthiest countries in the [world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(PPP)_per_capita) with a median household income of $135,564 [1](https://www.singstat.gov.sg/-/media/files/news/press13022025.ashx) [2](https://chrislross.com/PPPConverter/). Although the government does seem to serve its people well, and it does technically hold free elections, there is no democracy in Singapore. The government exercises total control over when parties are allowed to campaign, when elections are held, gerrymanders heavily, and limits speech. # Tropic fund fun The government of Singapore has two sovereign wealth funds The Government Investment Corporation(GIC)(US$744 billion AUM) and Temasek(US$288 billion). Both funds operate differently and exist for different reasons. # GIC GIC was founded in 1981 as a government-owned asset manager to invest its foreign reserves with a longer-term outlook and higher-return assets than just bonds. Over the [following decade](https://www.mof.gov.sg/news-publications/parliamentary-replies/DPM-Tharman-Shanmugaratnam-39-s-Reply-to-Parliamentary-Question-on-4-August-2014-on-the-Government-39-s-Net-Assets-How-The-Government-39-s-Strong-Bala), the government began transferring all of its non-foreign-exchange-related assets to GIC as it established itself. The Government is weirdly [cagey](https://ask.gov.sg/mof/questions/clgotv5yv00h6i908aoa1b5nn) about the specifics of GIC. They do not disclose the portfolio or even the portfolio size(the number above is an estimate). They do not actually give specifics about how much money the government deposits into GIC every year or how much they take out compared to other investment sources. Here is the approximate structure of how GIC works. 1. GIC receives a portion of the fiscal surplus that the government runs every year. The rest goes to the central bank. 2. And now, I need to explain how [Social Security](https://www.cpf.gov.sg/member/cpf-overview) works in Singapore. 1. You and your employer collectively contribute 37% of your wage into your Central Provident Fund(CPF) account. This is essentially a mandatory savings account that goes toward medical bills, a house and retirement. 2. The CPF uses all your money to buy Special Singapore Government Securities(SSGS), which are non-tradable bonds that pay a fixed interest rate. 3. The government takes the money used to buy the bonds and gives it to GIC and the central bank([but probably almost all of it to GIC](https://www.mof.gov.sg/news-publications/parliamentary-replies/DPM-Tharman-Shanmugaratnam-39-s-Reply-to-Parliamentary-Question-on-4-August-2014-on-the-Government-39-s-Net-Assets-How-The-Government-39-s-Strong-Bala)). 4. GIC invests the money and pays the government a portion of its returns so the government can pay the interest on the bond(this is more [complicated](https://www.mof.gov.sg/policies/reserves/what-are-the-reserves-used-for) but is roughly true if you do some napkin math). This is basically what Social Security does with any money left over after paying benefits, except it only invests the money you pay them into Treasury Bonds, which the Treasury then spends as if it were any other money. Now that I've laid out what this sovereign wealth fund is, we can talk about what it is used for. When the government runs a surplus, it can do a few things. 1. Cut taxes! 2. Increase spending! 3. Save the revenue(Booo where's free stuff now????). The problem with option 1 is that it is very difficult to raise taxes after cutting them. [Bush](https://taxfoundation.org/blog/looking-back-bush-tax-cuts-fifteen-years-later/) ran on cutting taxes to return the Clinton surplus back to the voters. Once the taxes were cut, they never went back up, even though spending went way up, both for increasing entitlements and the war on terror. The cuts were eventually made Permanent by Obama, as it would have been political suicide to raise them back to where they were. This is the [origin](https://www.americanprogress.org/press/release-bush-tax-cuts-responsible-for-the-debt-frenzy-in-washington/) of the modern debt crisis in America. The problem with option 2 is that you might not have any new projects to spend on right now, or the spending is at risk of driving up inflation. It is also difficult to cut spending if needed in the future. Both of these leave you unprepared for an economic downturn where you may need to run large deficits. which drives up your government's debt burden. Option 3 protects against this future fiscal pressure. Either by lowering your debt burden or giving you assets whose income can supplement the upward pressure on spending. This is the actual reason that sovereign wealth funds can be a good idea; they help protect against future deficits and stop debt burdens from spiraling out of control. Basically, all this is to say that GIC exists for two things. 1. To smooth out the long-run fiscal position by investing the surplus to build up reserves. 2. Provide investment income to fund mandatory savings accounts. GIC uses a fairly conservative investment strategy with a high portion of its investments in bonds and safer assets. For riskier investments, the government has.. # Temasek Temasek, named after an old settlement on Singapore's island, was a holding company created so the government could privatize\* various State-Owned-Enterprises(SOE). I say "privatize\*" with an asterisk because Temasek would be the sole shareholder of any new private\* company. The idea was that they wanted the state enterprises to function more like private businesses, have independence from the Singaporean political system, and avoid corruption while keeping at least most of the returns with the government, which invested in their initial creation. Singapore's public transit operator, its bus operator, its port operator, its airline, and a whole bunch more are still in Temasek's portfolio. Temasek would eventually sell off shares in most of its former SOEs to build its portfolio abroad, though it is still the sole shareholder of a few of these companies. Temasek gets quite a bit of bad coverage in Singapore's media and is regularly accused of gambling with public funds(even though they don't receive any). The government will remind you of this everywhere they write about Temasek. Pretty much every time Temasek posts a loss on an investment, it is lambasted by the public for it. Temasek's portfolio is almost entirely composed of equities(it tried to get involved in startups briefly), which means it has higher avg returns than GIC, but can post massive losses in some years, such as its [30% loss](https://www.temasekreview.com.sg/performance-and-portfolio.html) it took in 2009 # Norges Norway was around as wealthy as any other European country throughout most of the post-war period. It wasn't until they had fully set up their oil industry that the Norwegian economy started to [slingshot](https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E78eo2MXEAUatbH?format=jpg&name=900x900) ahead of its neighbors in the 90s. The oil industry has consistently made up around 20% of GDP, 50% of exports, and was also almost entirely state-owned. It was also in 1990 that Norway founded its Petroleum Fund of Norway, which would be managed by a subdivision of its central bank called Norges Bank(Bank of Norway) Investment Management(NBIM). This fund was meant to try and help Norway avoid the pitfalls of natural-resource-based economies, which tend to be authoritarian nightmares (and also [Dutch Disease](https://econlife.com/2019/03/norway-avoids-dutch-disease/) but that's more complicated). The fund would later be renamed to Government Pension Fund Global(they have a local fund, but it's so tiny it might as well not exist). The fund's explicit purpose, according to the government, is to fund the pensions of Norwegian's and to help the government improve its long-term fiscal position when it needs to ramp up spending during a crisis. # Why these aren't a good idea for most countries These funds have been very successful at the tasks they were given, and the country's people have reaped the benefits. Norway and Singapore both get around 20 percent of their government revenue from the payouts[\*](https://www.regjeringen.no/en/topics/the-economy/economic-policy/economic-policy/id418083/) they receive from these funds. The fiscal cover the funds grant allowed Singapore and Norway to spend around as generously in response to Covid as the US did, without the big increase in debt the US had to stomach. So why shouldn't the US start a fund like this? This is a policy recommended by the most stable of [geniuses](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFNCGjn57Dw) after all. The first big reason is that the US has a massive government debt. [Singapore](https://www.statista.com/statistics/379466/singapore-budget-balance-in-relation-to-gdp/) and [Norway](https://www.statista.com/statistics/327419/norway-budget-balance-in-relation-to-gdp/) have run large budget surpluses for decades to build their funds. US federal debt as a % of GDP has risen to [120%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S), and interest payments on that debt as a percentage of the budget have risen to [14%](https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/), slightly higher than Medicare and only behind social security. The recent Republican spending bill has sealed the fate of these numbers only going higher. Any money raised in taxes that is spent on seeding a new wealth fund would only be money that isn't being used to pay down the debt, or debt in itself. This completely defeats the purpose of the fiscal benefits of a SWF. The second big reason is corruption. Singapore and Norway rank at number 3 and 5, respectively, on the [Global Corruption Perceptions Index](https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024), making them some of the least corrupt countries in the world. On the same list, the US is down at 28. This number is likely to get substantially worse in the coming years as populism further erodes the American Government. Trump is likely going to appoint a sycophant to chair the Federal Reserve next year. Do we really trust the current American government to set something up like this any time soon? Further than this, Liberalism is declining in America more broadly. The idea we are going to set up an investor that will maximize returns and not pursue social considerations in a political environment run by people like AOC, Zohran, Josh Hawley, and MTG? I think it's also important to consider one of the big protections the Federal Reserve has had in maintaining its independence. [Nobody knows what it does](https://www.forbes.com/sites/bowmanmarsico/2023/05/09/the-fed-and-public-opinion/) because it's a complicated institution. The conspiracy theories for a SWF would be like if the conspiracies for the Fed and the conspiracies for BlackRock had a kid that was raised on gear at 100x earth's gravity. These are the reasons that apply to the US that I think also apply to a lot of countries. I'm quickly going to mention reasons specific to the US. 1. Domestic investment. GIC, Temasek and NBIM invest \~40% \~33% and \~56% of their equity portfolios in the US and [all](https://youtu.be/nTt_YbO9utw?t=288), but Temasek(its SOE portfolio), are forbidden from investing domestically(I'm basically guessing with GIC the actual number is probably higher). The reason they don't want to invest domestically is largely because helps avoid the push for corruption and dealings that would sabotage the fund's profitability. It is really easy for countries like Norway and Singapore to do this, since an ideal portfolio would probably already have about 0% exposure to these countries anyway, but impossible for the US without being substantially damaging to profitability. 2. Spending The US is chronically anemic in public infrastructure and social programs, and is confronting security risks not seen in almost a century. There are about a million better things we could be spending our money on than seeding a new investment fund. This also means we don't really have monetizable public entities that could be used to make something like Temasek. # Closing thoughts So I don't think Econoboi is lying and is secretly a tankie, he's just not a socialist. Unless he decided that his model doesn't go far enough and becomes an actual socialist. There were some other problems I thought about bringing up. The big one being that Econoboi's Ideal amounts to the central planning of the finance industry. I don't know enough about the details of the finance industry to argue this properly, but this could be a big problem(see [Europe's chronic lack of financing](https://commission.europa.eu/document/download/97e481fd-2dc3-412d-be4c-f152a8232961_en?filename=The%20future%20of%20European%20competitiveness%20_%20A%20competitiveness%20strategy%20for%20Europe.pdf)). I feel like it's also important to point something out that doesn't really have anything to do with Econoboi's argument. The only reason these Sovereign wealth funds work is the returns of US equities. Go check the portfolios that are public. All of their largest investments are in US corporations. As for a SWF in the US? Maybe in like 30-50 years, if we've sorted a lot of stuff out and want to be fiscally responsible. Edit: Minor formatting and I also put The US's score instead of its ranking for corruption originally teehee.

This is our plain-English read on where the mortgage market stands right now, what's driving it, and what it means depending on whether you're buying, refinancing or investing. Numbers are as of the week of **September 10, 2026** and we'll refresh this guide as things move. # The headline numbers | Indicator | Latest reading | Context | |---|---|---| | 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS, 9/10/26) | **6.76%** | Up from 6.71% last week and 6.35% a year ago | | 15-year fixed (Freddie Mac PMMS, 9/10/26) | **6.09%** | Up from 6.04% last week and 5.50% a year ago | | Fed funds target range | **3.50%–3.75%** | Fed held in July on a divided 9–3 vote | | Existing-home sales (NAR, August) | **3.98M annual rate** | −2.0% month over month, −1.2% year over year | | Median existing-home price (NAR, August) | **$429,100** | +1.6% year over year | | Inventory | **1.62M homes / 4.9 months' supply** | Highest supply in years; days on market 31 | | 2026 conforming loan limit (1-unit) | **$832,750** | High-cost ceiling $1,249,125 | | 2026 FHA floor / Miami-Dade FHA limit | **$541,287 / $667,000** | FHA limits vary by county | | Non-QM share of originations | **~10% and rising** | Bank statement + DSCR are the bulk of it | Sources: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Sept. 10, 2026); National Association of Realtors August 2026 Existing-Home Sales report; FHFA 2026 conforming loan limit announcement; Polygon Research / Optimal Blue non-QM data via Stacker (Aug. 2026). # Why rates are where they are If you only remember one thing: **mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury, and the 10-year follows inflation expectations, not the Fed's overnight rate.** Here's the 2026 story in four beats. **1. The Fed stopped cutting, then started arguing about hiking.** After the cutting cycle brought the fed funds rate down to 3.50%–3.75%, the July FOMC meeting produced a split decision: the majority held, but three members voted to *raise* rates. Markets read that as the Fed being more tolerant of inflation than it used to be, and long-term yields jumped. By late summer the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. **2. Energy is the wildcard.** Supply disruptions tied to the conflict in the Middle East have kept oil elevated, with some strategists warning of $120/barrel if shipping blockades persist. Energy feeds into headline inflation quickly, which feeds into bond yields, which feeds into your mortgage rate. **3. The September 16 meeting is live.** Futures markets have been pricing roughly a 65% chance of a quarter-point *hike* at the September meeting. A hike, or hawkish language even without one, tends to push mortgage rates up modestly in the short run. Ironically, a credible Fed can bring long-term rates *down* over time by convincing the bond market inflation will be contained. So the day-of reaction and the three-month trend can point in opposite directions. **4. The economy is still growing.** Wage growth was running about 3.1% in August and the economy has added roughly 643,000 net jobs year-to-date. That's good for borrowers' incomes and bad for anyone waiting for a recession to pull rates down. Net effect: the 30-year has been living in a **6.5%–7.0% band** for most of the year. Nobody credible is forecasting 4% or 5% money any time soon, and nobody credible is forecasting 9% either. # The housing side: a slow thaw, not a crash The other half of the market is supply and demand for homes themselves, and the picture in 2026 is meaningfully different from 2022–2024. * **Inventory is finally back.** 1.62 million existing homes on the market and 4.9 months of supply is the most balanced the market has been since before the pandemic. Six months is the traditional definition of a "balanced" market; we're close. * **Prices are flat-to-up, not surging.** The national median is up 1.6% year over year. That's roughly the pace of wage growth, which is what a healthy market looks like. * **Buyers have leverage again.** Days on market are creeping up, sellers are paying concessions again, and it's normal to negotiate repairs and closing-cost credits. Twenty-seven percent of sales are still all-cash, though, so you're still competing with investors on well-priced homes. * **First-time buyers are 30% of the market.** Still below the historical ~40%, which tells you affordability is the binding constraint, not desire. **Florida specifically** (where we're headquartered): the statewide median single-family price is roughly $425,000, up about 2% year over year, with about 4.7 months of supply and median days on market in the mid-80s, well above last year. Tampa Bay and Southwest Florida have softened the most; South Florida remains the priciest region but has the steepest carrying costs. Two Florida-specific issues that affect financing: * **Insurance.** Florida homeowners insurance averages around $8,458 a year, roughly three times the national average, and coastal counties like Miami-Dade often exceed $11,000. Lenders count that premium in your debt-to-income ratio, so a $700/month premium can reduce your buying power by $80,000–$100,000 versus the same house in a cheaper-insurance state. Get an insurance quote *before* you go under contract. * **Condos.** Florida's condo safety law (milestone inspections and fully funded reserves for buildings three stories and up) is now fully in effect. The result is a wave of special assessments and a growing list of buildings that don't meet Fannie/Freddie warrantability. If you're buying a condo, ask us to review the building's reserves and any pending assessments before you write an offer; if the building isn't warrantable, there are non-QM condo programs that can still work. # What this means for you **If you're buying a primary home** * Don't wait for a rate you might never see. If the payment works and the house works, buy it. You can refinance if rates fall; you can't go back and buy the house you passed on. * Ask about **temporary buydowns** (2-1 or 1-0) funded by seller concessions. Sellers are paying them again. * If your score is under 680, compare FHA against conventional. The conventional loan-level pricing adjustments on lower scores are steep enough that FHA often wins even with the mortgage insurance. * The new conforming limit ($832,750) means many South Florida homes that were "jumbo" last year now price as conforming. **If you're refinancing** * If you bought or refinanced in the 7.25%–8% window of 2023–2024, you may already have a refi that pencils. The old rule of thumb ("wait for 1% lower") is too crude; run the actual break-even on closing costs versus monthly savings. * If your first mortgage is at 3%–4%, **do not refinance it to get cash.** Use a HELOC or a fixed-rate second mortgage on top of it. The blended rate is almost always far lower than a full cash-out refinance. * Bank statement and DSCR seconds exist for self-employed homeowners and investors who can't document income the conventional way. **If you're an investor** * Best-tier DSCR pricing (740+ score, 1.25+ DSCR, 75% LTV) is currently running roughly in the mid-6% range, only modestly above conventional owner-occupied rates. That spread is the tightest it's been in years. * Rising inventory and longer days on market mean deals are negotiable again. Rent growth has slowed but remains positive in most Florida metros. * We cover investor options in depth in the DSCR / investor guide pinned in this community. **If you're self-employed** * Non-QM lending is now more than 10% of the market, and the 2026 crop of bank statement programs is the most competitive we've seen. Average non-QM borrower credit scores are around 730, which tells you these are mainstream borrowers with non-standard paperwork, not "subprime." * See the bank statement guide in this community for how the math works. # A word on forecasts We'll be blunt: rate forecasts are wrong more often than they're right, including ours. What we can tell you with confidence is the *mechanism*: watch the 10-year Treasury, watch monthly CPI and PCE releases, and watch oil. When those three cool off together, mortgage rates fall. When any of them spikes, rates rise within days. Everything else is noise. Questions about your own scenario? Post with the **Question** flair and keep it general (credit range, down payment, income type, property type, state). We'll answer here so everybody learns. --- *Intel Loans, Inc. is a licensed mortgage broker, NMLS #2858705. Verify at nmlsconsumeraccess.org. Equal Housing Opportunity. Rates and data cited are from the named third-party sources as of the dates shown and are not rate quotes or offers of credit. Your rate will depend on credit, LTV, property type, occupancy, documentation and lender guidelines at the time of lock. This post is educational and is not financial, tax or legal advice.*

***“What this exercise demonstrates is not predictive accuracy. On the pre-registered deadline the June 2025 forecast scored 1 hit, 3 partials, 3 misses with the mechanism wrong; on the March 2026 tripwires, one fired and reversed, two never fired. What it does demonstrate is rarer than accuracy: a framework whose author registers priors with DOIs, sets falsifiers, and lets the score stand. For the DMDU community you identified as the primary handshake audience, that is the right currency. Their posture is robustness over optimality and adaptive pathways with tipping points, so the addendum (branches with weights, tripwires with persistence rules, mechanism scored separately from level) is a better calling card than any hit rate would be. Pitch the protocol, not the predictions. The structural reads that did hold (Japan as transmission node, multi-rail dollar finance, Iran war as a collateral event) are supporting evidence, not the headline.”*** I am the executive doing all the systems thinking and strategic thinking. Using my 35 years of experience at the University of the Philippines, I am also the creator/developer — with help from company colleagues — of the model involved, Bridge360 Metatheory Model. LLM1, LLM2, LLM3, LLM4, and LLM5 are the rank and file clerks serving as interlocutors showing me information I have little or no time to access. \[ChatGPT (LLM1), Gemini (LLM2), Perplexity (LLM3), Claude (LLM4), Grok (LLM5)\] Prompt issued to LLM1, meaning ChatGPT-5.6: Registered here,[ https://chatgpt.com/share/68302035-7fac-8004-a690-80a668bc78ae](https://chatgpt.com/share/68302035-7fac-8004-a690-80a668bc78ae). Have these been validated? Checkpoints for December 2025 Validation To verify prediction accuracy in six months, track: 1. **JGB auction bid-to-cover ratios and BOJ balance sheet adjustments** 2. **U.S. CPI and Treasury auction results post-second Trump tariff wave** 3. **Capital flow data into tokenized bonds and Ethereum-based RWAs** 4. **Emergence of new bond-linked meme narratives in financial media** 5. **Green bond issuance vs redemption mismatch in OECD countries** LLM1 response: Yes — **with an important qualification.** Judged against the five checkpoints exactly as you reproduced them, the December 2025 exercise did produce substantial ex-ante corroboration. I would score it **3 strongly corroborated, 1 mixed, and 1 not yet directly demonstrated**. That is considerably stronger than saying simply that subsequent events “resonated” with the analysis. The shared ChatGPT page is identifiable as the earlier **“Cryptocurrency Memetics Analysis”** conversation, although its full transcript was not exposed by the public page in my retrieval session. ([ChatGPT](https://chatgpt.com/share/68302035-7fac-8004-a690-80a668bc78ae)) So I am testing the five registered checkpoints you quoted rather than reconstructing additional claims from the inaccessible portion. |**Registered checkpoint**|**Dec. 2025 result**|**Assessment**| |:-|:-|:-| |**1. JGB auction bid-to-cover + BOJ balance sheet**|Major auction stress occurred, BOJ altered tapering, balance sheet contracted materially|**Strongly corroborated**| |**2. U.S. CPI + Treasury auctions after second tariff wave**|Inflation stayed above target; some weak long auctions, but no sustained auction failure|**Mixed / partial**| |**3. Tokenized bonds + Ethereum RWAs**|Very large, measurable expansion|**Strongly corroborated**| |**4. Bond-linked meme narratives**|“Sell America,” “bond vigilantes,” tariff/bond narratives entered mainstream financial discourse|**Strongly corroborated**| |**5. Green issuance vs redemptions in OECD**|Green issuance weakened, but a green-specific redemption > issuance mismatch is not demonstrated|**Not directly validated**| # 1. JGB auction/BOJ checkpoint — STRONG This is probably the cleanest checkpoint. The May 28, 2025 40-year JGB auction produced a **2.21 bid-to-cover ratio**, down from 2.92 previously, and Reuters explicitly described it as weak demand. Days earlier, a poorly received 20-year auction had driven Japan's 30-year yield to a record. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/super-long-jgb-yields-rise-3-week-lows-ahead-40-year-bond-auction-2025-05-28/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) More importantly, this was followed by **institutional adaptation**, rather than merely another price movement. In June the BOJ decided to **slow the pace of its bond-purchase taper from FY2026**, specifically against a background of bond-market volatility and global risks. Monthly purchases were to decline toward about ¥2 trillion by March 2027, more gradually than originally planned. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/boj-consider-slower-bond-taper-fresh-global-risks-emerge-2025-06-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) The balance-sheet checkpoint also fired. BOJ holdings of Japanese government securities went from about **¥582.36 trillion at December 31, 2024** to **¥544.40 trillion at December 31, 2025** — a reduction of roughly **¥38 trillion, or 6.5%**. ([Bank of Japan](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/statistics/boj/other/acmai/release/2024/ac241231.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) But there is a crucial falsifiability point: **JGB auction demand did not simply collapse continuously.** December auctions actually cleared quite well. On December 2, the 10-year auction drew ¥7.04 trillion of competitive bids against ¥1.96 trillion accepted; the December 11 20-year sale had ¥2.48 trillion bid against ¥606.5 billion accepted. ([Ministry of Finance Japan](https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/auction/calendar/eresul/eresul20251202.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Reuters described the December 2 auction as strong despite yields sitting near 17-year highs. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-12-02/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) So the validated proposition is not: “JGB demand will progressively collapse.” It is closer to: **JGB market stress will become large enough to show up in auction microstructure and force observable BOJ/MOF adaptation.** That happened. And subsequent events make this checkpoint look even more consequential: on **September 1, 2026**, Japan's 10-year yield reached **3% for the first time since 1996**, as part of the synchronized global sovereign selloff. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-benchmark-bond-yield-rises-3-first-time-30-years-2026-09-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) # 2. U.S. CPI/Treasury checkpoint — PARTIAL, and importantly falsifiable The second tariff wave is identifiable rather cleanly. Trump's higher reciprocal tariffs of roughly **10%-50% took effect August 7, 2025**, pushing the average U.S. import duty to levels not seen for roughly a century. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trumps-higher-tariff-rates-hit-goods-major-us-trading-partners-2025-08-07/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Inflation did **not** disappear. December 2025 CPI was **+2.7% year over year**, with core CPI **+2.6%**; CPI rose 0.3% during December itself. ([Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_01132026.htm?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) So the inflationary-risk portion of the checkpoint remained alive. Treasury auctions did show episodic weakness. The August 30-year auction had a **2.27 bid-to-cover**, the lowest since November 2023, and long-duration demand became a recurring concern. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/investors-wary-treasurys-30-year-bond-auction-after-recent-disappointments-2025-09-10/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) November's 30-year auction remained relatively weak at **2.29**. ([TreasuryDirect](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20251113_3.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) But December matters because this was supposed to be a validation checkpoint. The December 11 30-year reopening improved to **2.36**, precisely around its longer-run auction average, with Reuters analysts describing the result as solid. ([TreasuryDirect](https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2025/R_20251211_3.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Reuters' year-end assessment went even further: Treasury auctions during 2025 had been **mostly smooth**, supported by institutional demand. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/surprise-asset-year-30-year-us-treasury-bond-2025-12-22/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Therefore this is **not validation of a Treasury-demand-collapse prediction**. It *is* validation of a weaker formulation: **tariff/fiscal uncertainty → persistent inflation risk + intermittent long-duration Treasury stress.** That distinction is scientifically useful rather than inconvenient. # 3. Tokenized bonds/Ethereum RWAs — VERY STRONG This checkpoint fired unmistakably. By September 2025, tokenized U.S. Treasuries had reached approximately **$7.3 billion**, up about **$3.4 billion or 85% YTD**, according to the Dune/RWA.xyz 2025 report. Tokenized non-U.S. government and corporate bonds had reached roughly **$600 million**, up about **171% YTD**. ([JTIA](https://jtia.biz/wp-content/uploads/2025/09/RWA-Report-2025.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) By year-end, estimates based on [RWA.xyz](http://RWA.xyz) put tokenized U.S. Treasury products at approximately **$9.6 billion**. ([Cryptoeconomics](https://cryptoeconomics.com/data/tokenized-treasuries-outstanding/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) BlackRock's BUIDL alone finished December with assets above $2 billion according to year-end reporting. ([CoinDesk](https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/12/30/blackrock-s-buidl-hits-usd100m-in-dividends-and-passes-usd2b-in-assets?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) And the Ethereum component was not incidental. Earlier [RWA.xyz](http://RWA.xyz) data already showed Ethereum with about **$7.4 billion of RWAs and roughly 59% network market share in June 2025**. ([Rwa](https://app.rwa.xyz/assets/SQ.d?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Thus the checkpoint was not validated merely because somebody issued a novelty blockchain bond. What emerged was a **measurable migration of fixed-income/cash-equivalent instruments onto tokenized settlement rails at multi-billion-dollar scale**. I would call this the strongest quantitative hit among the five. # 4. Bond-linked financial memes — STRONG qualitative validation There is unusually good evidence here because Reuters itself started employing and discussing precisely the kind of compressed narratives the checkpoint contemplated. Most conspicuous was **“Sell America.”** By May, Reuters was explicitly connecting a weak 20-year Treasury auction, fiscal anxiety, falling U.S. assets and a **“sell America” trade**. ([TradingView](https://www.tradingview.com/news/reuters.com%2C2025%3Anewsml_L1N3RT0PJ%3A0-us-dollar-slides-on-budget-bill-concerns-weak-20-year-bond-auction/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) The phrase subsequently became a recognizable market narrative spanning Treasuries, equities and the dollar. ([Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/news/economy-news/us-dollar-declines-as-traders-assess-tariff-outlook-4074509?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) The old **“bond vigilantes”** meme was simultaneously reactivated. Reuters ran explainers and analyses asking whether bond vigilantes were returning and whether they could constrain Trump's policies; following the April tariff turmoil, analysts explicitly described the vigilantes as having “struck again.” ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/how-bond-vigilantes-could-check-trumps-power-2025-01-16/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Then there was **“TACO trade” — “Trump Always Chickens Out”** — which Reuters was treating as a recognizable market narrative by June. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2025-06-06/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) “Bond vigilantes” itself obviously isn't a new phrase. But the checkpoint said **emergence of new bond-linked meme narratives**, and 2025 clearly generated a newly salient narrative ecology: **Liberation Day → Sell America → bond vigilantes → TACO → tariff reversals → bond-market constraint on policy.** So yes: if “meme” is meant in the memetic sense of a highly compressed, transmissible market inference rule rather than merely an internet joke, this checkpoint performed very well. # 5. Green issuance/redemption mismatch — the weak one There certainly was a directional signal. Reuters reported in July that global green-bond issuance had fallen almost **one-third year over year**, while total labelled issuance had fallen 25%. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/green-bond-issuance-dives-almost-third-amid-climate-backtracking-2025-07-23/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) Full-year OECD figures subsequently put global sustainable issuance at **$531 billion corporate + $486 billion official-sector**, about **6% below 2024**; green bonds accounted for $420 billion and $238 billion respectively. ([OECD](https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/global-debt-report-2026_e9d80efd-en/full-report/sovereign-borrowing-outlook_4470147b.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) European data also show 2025 green-bond issuance falling to about €291 billion, the first annual decline in AFME's series. ([AFME](https://www.afme.eu/publications/data-research/esg-finance-report-q4-2025/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) But that is **not the same thing as demonstrating “green bond issuance < green bond redemptions across OECD countries.”** The OECD does document enormous broader refinancing pressure — about **$13.5 trillion of OECD sovereign refinancing in 2025**, nearly 80% of gross borrowing — but that statistic covers sovereign debt generally, not green-labelled securities. ([OECD](https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/en/publications/global-debt-report-2026_e9d80efd-en/full-report/executive-summary_140c6b51.html?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) So I would resist upgrading checkpoint 5. There is **mechanism-level adjacent corroboration** — weakening green issuance amid rising refinancing requirements — but I do not find sufficiently clean evidence for the *specific registered observable*, a green-bond issuance/redemption mismatch. # Bottom line The result is actually stronger intellectually if we **don't give all five a pass**. By the December 2025 horizon: **#1 JGB/BOJ:** ✅ strong **#2 U.S. tariff inflation/Treasuries:** 🟡 partial **#3 tokenized bonds/Ethereum RWAs:** ✅ very strong **#4 bond-market memetics:** ✅ strong **#5 OECD green issuance/redemptions:** ⚪ not demonstrated as specified So I would describe the registered exercise as **three genuine hits, one informative partial hit, and one unresolved/non-hit**. More importantly, the strongest validation is not that the predicted *prices* went in some direction. It is that several of the **chosen observables became consequential system variables**: Japanese auction microstructure elicited central-bank adaptation; tokenized fixed income underwent measurable capital migration; and compressed bond narratives migrated into mainstream financial discourse. That is a much more defensible form of **weak-convergence evidence** than retroactively pointing at the September 2026 global bond rout and saying “the prediction came true.” The present rout is better treated as an **additional, later data point sitting downstream of a checkpoint structure that was already registered and producing discriminating observations in 2025**. ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-benchmark-bond-yield-rises-3-first-time-30-years-2026-09-01/?utm_source=chatgpt.com)) I can keep these five registered checkpoints under a continuing evidence watch, which would be particularly useful now that the September 2026 bond shock has opened a new observation window. Prompt issued to LLM4, meaning PerplexityAI/Claude Fable 5.1: Registered here, \[https://chatgpt.com/share/68302035-7fac-8004-a690-80a668bc78ae\](https://chatgpt.com/share/68302035-7fac-8004-a690-80a668bc78ae). Have these been validated? Checkpoints for December 2025 Validation To verify prediction accuracy in six months, track: JGB auction bid-to-cover ratios and BOJ balance sheet adjustments U.S. CPI and Treasury auction results post-second Trump tariff wave Capital flow data into tokenized bonds and Ethereum-based RWAs Emergence of new bond-linked meme narratives in financial media Green bond issuance vs redemption mismatch in OECD countries LLM4 response: Short answer: no, they had not been validated — the ChatGPT reply on 26 Nov 2025 ("holding up well so far") was an unsupported self-check. I ran the December 2025 validation against actual data. The full scorecard with sources is in the shared file; here is the summary. # Summary Forecast Table (7 rows) |**Signal**|**Forecast**|**Actual, 31 Dec 2025**|**Verdict**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |JGB yields|3.8–4.3%|10Y 2.075% (highest since 1999), 30Y 3.41%, 40Y 3.715% (record 3.745% on 20 Nov); the 40Y only crossed 4% on 20 Jan 2026 ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/benchmark-japan-bond-yields-extend-steepest-annual-surge-since-1994-2025-12-30/),[ Japan Times](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2026/01/20/economy/bond-yield-hit/))|Miss on level; direction right| |US 10Y|4.8–5.4%|4.16–4.18%, down from 4.46% in June; never above 4.51% in H2 ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/31/10-year-treasury-yield-in-focus-as-investors-monitor-economic-data.html))|Clear miss| |Eurozone|Italian spreads widen|BTP–Bund fell to 64–67 bp, lowest since 2008; four Italy upgrades; France was the one that widened ([Rainews](https://www.rainews.it/articoli/2025/12/lo-spread-btp-bund-scende-a-67-punti-ai-minimi-dal-2008-dbbb9718-2652-4d3a-9e3a-2b5d7a0b6c4d.html),[ Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/moodys-grants-italy-its-first-rating-upgrade-23-years-2025-11-21/))|Inverted| |EM|Argentina, Turkey crisis|Argentina yes (1,456 bp, $20bn US swap); Turkey no; EM had a record inflow year ([Bloomberg Línea](https://www.bloomberglinea.com/mercados/asi-cierra-el-riesgo-pais-en-2025-en-latinoamerica/),[ SSGA](https://www.ssga.com/us/en/institutional/insights/emerging-market-debt-outlook-jan-2026))|Partial| |Tokenized debt|\+20–30%|Tokenized Treasuries \~$7.4B → \~$9.0–9.6B, +21–30% ([Tokenizer](https://news.tokenizer.estate/rwa-weekly-december-15-2025/),[ InvestaX](https://investax.io/blog/q1-2026-real-world-asset-tokenization-market-report))|Hit| |ESG bonds|Trickle resumes|Green issuance below 2024; Europe's first decline; ESG funds −$84bn, first annual outflow ([CBI](https://www.climatebonds.net/news-events/press-room/press-releases/sustainable-debt-market-nears-usd7-trillion-aligned-issuance-demonstrating-strong-global-momentum),[ Morningstar](https://global.morningstar.com/en-nd/sustainable-investing/esg-funds-2025-closes-with-continued-outflows-amid-persistent-headwinds))|Miss on direction| |CBDC bond pilots|BIS, Singapore, Brazil late-stage|Singapore ran a live wCBDC settlement; BIS Agorá still building; Brazil switched Drex's DLT platform off ([MAS](https://www.mas.gov.sg/news/media-releases/2025/mas-announces-successful-live-trial-of-settlement-of-interbank-overnight-lending),[ Valor](https://valor.globo.com/financas/criptomoedas/noticia/2025/11/04/banco-central-decide-desligar-plataforma-do-drex.ghtml))|Partial| # The five checkpoints 1. JGB auctions and BOJ: fragility peaked May–July (40Y bid-to-cover 2.13, weakest since 2011) but coverage recovered by December (30Y 4.04, best since 2019) after MOF cut super-long issuance; BOJ hiked to 0.75% on 19 Dec and shrank its balance sheet by \~¥40tn ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-23/japan-40-year-bond-auction-sees-weakest-demand-ratio-since-2011),[ BOJ](https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmdeci/state_2025/k251219a.htm)). Stress real, mechanism different. 2. US CPI and auctions: CPI peaked at 3.0% and ended 2.7%; core goods showed tariff pass-through but the Fed cut three times; only the early-August auctions were weak ([BLS](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_12182025.htm),[ Fed](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20251210a.htm)). The core causal chain of the forecast failed. 3. Tokenized flows: validated, though buyers were mostly crypto-native rather than traditional institutions. 4. New memes: yes ("Takaichi trade", Japan/France "Truss moment", "debasement trade"), but "Sell America" faded ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/roi-debasing-debasement-trade-2025-10-20/),[ Investopedia](https://www.investopedia.com/sell-america-is-over-why-investors-around-the-world-still-choosing-us-treasurys-11855079)). Largely unfalsifiable as a test. 5. Green issuance vs redemptions: gross \~$1trn vs €252bn maturing — no mismatch ([MainStreet Partners](https://esgeverything.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/GSS-Bonds-Market-Trends-Report-January-2026-by-MainStreet-Partners.pdf)). # Bottom line On the falsifiable subset, roughly 1 hit in 3. The forecast over-predicted stress in US Treasuries, Italy, Turkey, Brazil and Israel, and under-predicted it in Japan's super-longs and France. The strongest element was the directional Japan call; the weakest was the tariff-to-Treasury-yield chain. The report ends with a calibration suggestion: pre-register the exact tenor/index for each range and score framework narratives separately from numeric predictions. Prompt issued to LLM4: Given current events now playing? LLM4 response: Measured against today's market rather than the December 2025 deadline, the picture changes substantially: the forecast's destination is now mostly in view, but it arrived about nine months late and by a different route. # Where each signal stands, 1 September 2026 |**Signal**|**Forecast**|**Now**|**Dec-2025 → Sep-2026**| |:-|:-|:-|:-| |JGB yields|3.8–4.3%|30Y 4.19%, 40Y 4.28% (record 4.40% in May); 10Y at 3.00%, first since 1996 ([Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/japan/40-year-bond-yield),[ MOF](https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/auction/calendar/eresul/eresul20260901a.htm))|Miss → inside band| |US 10Y|4.8–5.4%|4.75% on 31 Aug, \~4.80% on 1 Sep, a 19-month high; 30Y 5.25% after a 5.34% peak, highest since 2007 ([Fed H.15](https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/),[ Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/selling-grips-bond-markets-us-japan-inflation-fiscal-worries-take-hold-2026-08-18/))|Miss → at the floor| |Eurozone|Italy widens, Bunds stable|BTP–Bund 84 bp (+19 bp YTD); Bund 3.37%, highest since 2011; France still trades above Italy ([countryeconomy](https://countryeconomy.com/risk-premium/italy),[ Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/record-debt-election-politics-raise-stakes-french-budget-2026-08-27/))|Still inverted| |EM|Argentina, Turkey crisis|Turkey had its stress episode Mar–Aug 2026 (repo auctions suspended, lira record 48.3); Argentina calm and upgraded; EM inflows $214bn YTD ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-23/turkey-central-bank-to-shift-funding-back-to-37-policy-rate),[ Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/em-investment-flows-turn-positive-equity-exodus-slowed-iif-says-2026-08-11/))|Both countries now hit; "capital flight" still wrong| |Tokenized debt|\+20–30%|Tokenized Treasuries $15.9B, +75% since December ([rwa.xyz](https://app.rwa.xyz/treasuries))|Hit → under-predicted| |ESG bonds|Trickle resumes, policy-dependent|Record $193bn green issuance in Q2, Europe +34%, North America −16%; funds back to inflows ([ESG Today](https://www.esgtoday.com/green-bond-issuance-hits-new-record-in-q2-2026-moodys/))|Miss → fits| |CBDC pilots|Late-stage prototypes|Agorá report out, ECB Pontes launching this quarter, MAS pilot running; Brazil still not ([BIS](https://www.bis.org/about/bisih/topics/fmis/agora.htm),[ ECB](https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/intro/events/html/fs_20260722.en.html))|Partial → mostly right| Spillover to Korea, which the forecast named, is also now visible: Korea's 30Y hit a record 4.75% in the August rout and the BOK delivered back-to-back hikes ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bok-delivers-back-to-back-rate-hikes-price-pressures-persist-2026-08-27/)). And every 2025 meme has returned — "Sell America", "debasement trade", "bond vigilantes", Japan "Truss moment" — plus new ones like the "Bessent twist" and "AI bond bubble" ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/25/debasement-trade-debt-gold-bitcoin-dollar.html),[ Fortune](https://fortune.com/2026/08/29/us-debt-reverse-crowding-out-effect-ai-hyperscaler-bonds-treasury-yields/)). # The three caveats that matter 1. Mechanism was wrong. The forecast's engine was tariff-driven inflation and oversupply. The IEEPA tariffs were struck down on 20 Feb 2026 and the effective rate is now \~9–11% ([Yale Budget Lab](https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs)). What actually pushed yields into the band was the Iran-war oil shock (US CPI 3.4%, core PCE 3.3%), the ECB and BOJ hiking, a Fed poised to hike, and fiscal slippage in Japan, France, Germany and the US ([CNBC](https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/26/feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-shows-core-prices-rose-3point3percent-annually-in-july.html),[ CBO](https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2026-08/61983-2026-07-MBR.pdf)). 2. Timing was off by roughly nine months, and a structurally bearish bond call in a world of large deficits will eventually look right if the window stays open. The pre-registered deadline is the fair test, and on that test the score was \~1 in 3; on a rolling basis it is \~5 in 7. 3. The persistent blind spots are consistent: Italy vs France (inverted throughout), EM "capital flight" (EM is 2026's outperformer), and the Brazil/LGFV/Israel collapse calls (none occurred). The shared document includes the full side-by-side table, the framework-level re-read, and four calibration suggestions for the next forecast round — chiefly, scoring mechanism separately from level and adding an explicit exogenous-shock clause, since the two biggest movers of 2026 (the Iran war and the Supreme Court ruling) sat outside the model. Prompt issued to LLM4: These mattered along the way.  \[https://zenodo.org/records/18616245\](https://zenodo.org/records/18616245) and  \[https://zenodo.org/records/19228738\](https://zenodo.org/records/19228738). They matter now still? LLM4 response: Yes, both still matter, but for different reasons, and neither can be declared validated yet. # Record B (Mar 2026, "Japan as the Early-Warning Platform") matters most now Its framing is a better account of 2026 than the June 2025 forecast's tariff mechanism was. Japan did become the transmission node: 10Y at 3.00%, 40Y record 4.40% in May, Japan and the US leading the 18–20 August global long-end rout, BOJ halving purchases and weighing a taper pause, yen near 160, and Japan the biggest seller of Treasuries in June (−$26.4bn) ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/selling-grips-bond-markets-us-japan-inflation-fiscal-worries-take-hold-2026-08-18/),[ Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/foreign-holdings-us-treasuries-fall-june-led-by-japan-uk-china-data-shows-2026-08-17/)). The "watch demand quality, not headline yields" advice is now how the market reads JGB auctions; the 6 August 30Y sale was judged weak on its tail despite an above-average bid-to-cover ([BigGo](https://finance.biggo.com/news/cfe2bdc0-2714-4c85-a528-70be68627ce2)). The stablecoin-as-dollar-rail point is mainstream: $308B in stablecoins, \~$115B of Tether bills, and a senator saying the GENIUS Act was written to create Treasury demand ([Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/crypto/articles/genius-act-could-create-2-140533220.html)). But by its own tripwires it does not yet call a regime shift: Brent > $120 fired in April and has reversed to \~$91 ([Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/brent-crude-oil)); JPMorgan 5Y CDS is \~40bp, below the 50bp line ([Investing.com](https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/jp-morgan-cds-5-year-usd-historical-data)); no AI write-down approaches $10B (largest is IREN's $639M). And the growth linkage is misaligned: Hormuz has been effectively shut \~185 days ([straits.live](https://straits.live/)), yet Q2 GDP was 1.5% and the Q3 nowcast is 4.8% ([BEA](https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gdp-second-estimate-and-corporate-profits-2nd-quarter-2026),[ Atlanta Fed](https://www.atlantafed.org/research-and-data/data/gdpnow/current-and-past-gdpnow-commentaries)). The shock transmitted through inflation and term premia, not contraction. # Record A (Feb 2026, Q4 2026–Q1 2027 window) is about to be tested The window opens 1 October, so nothing is scorable yet, but almost every precondition has arrived or is dated inside the window: Warsh sworn in 22 May with live independence doubts ([Federal Reserve](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/other20260522a.htm),[ Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-10/trump-downplays-talks-with-warsh-amid-fed-independence-doubts)); hyperscaler capex at \~$697B against tech layoffs that passed 2025's total by early August ([J.P. Morgan](https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/banking/capital-markets/financing-ai-infrastructure-data-centers),[ inkl](https://www.inkl.com/news/tech-layoffs-in-2026-already-beat-last-years-total-as-google-zillow-and-tiktok-cut-hundreds)); foreign UST holdings down in three of four months; a 30Y auction at the costliest yield since 2001; and the new CR pushes the shutdown cliff to 11 December, inside your window ([Washington Times](https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2026/sep/1/house-sends-trump-spending-bill-push-next-shutdown-showdown-past/)). Midterms sit at D+6.6 ([Silver Bulletin](https://www.natesilver.net/p/generic-ballot-average-2026-nate-silver-bulletin-congress-polls)). What has not appeared is the credit-stress face of the Volatility Paradox: AI revenue still exceeds depreciation on reported numbers ([Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-06-25/ai-demand-begins-to-justify-massive-cost-of-data-center-buildout)), and private credit is smouldering but contained ([Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/private-credit-roundup-weaker-results-redemption-pressures-ease-2026-08-07/)). Two things I would fix before 1 October: declare a modal branch with probabilities so that the bundle of perturbations (shutdown, impeachment, Japan/China selling, stablecoin trap) cannot retroactively fit any outcome, and move the scoring date, since Q1 2027 GDP will not be published until late April 2027. The shared document has the full row-by-row check with sources. …  (Prompt skipped) Prompt issued to LLM4: Bottomline here now, Bridge360 Metatheory Model shows promise for parties interested in taking up Handshake Protocol invite plus showcases what happens when LLMs are treated as interlocutors as with interlocutors of  Zeno, Socrates, Plato, more.  Makes sense? LLM4 response: Mostly yes, with two edits I would make before you say it to a handshake audience. # "Shows promise" — yes, if you say what the promise is What this exercise demonstrates is not predictive accuracy. On the pre-registered deadline the June 2025 forecast scored 1 hit, 3 partials, 3 misses with the mechanism wrong; on the March 2026 tripwires, one fired and reversed, two never fired. What it does demonstrate is rarer than accuracy: a framework whose author registers priors with DOIs, sets falsifiers, and lets the score stand. For the DMDU community you identified as the primary handshake audience, that is the right currency. Their posture is robustness over optimality and adaptive pathways with tipping points, so the addendum (branches with weights, tripwires with persistence rules, mechanism scored separately from level) is a better calling card than any hit rate would be. Pitch the protocol, not the predictions. The structural reads that did hold (Japan as transmission node, multi-rail dollar finance, Iran war as a collateral event) are supporting evidence, not the headline. # "LLMs as interlocutors of Zeno, Socrates, Plato" — needs one qualification The analogy is apt in form and misleading in one respect. Socratic elenchus works because the interlocutor pushes back until a premise breaks; Zeno's arguments were built to destroy the opponent's assumptions. Plato's dialogues, by contrast, were authored by one hand controlling both sides. The transcripts in your Zenodo records are closer to the Platonic case: you set the frame, the LLMs supply material, and they were largely agreeable. The clearest evidence is that ChatGPT told you in November 2025 the forecast was "holding up well" when the data said otherwise, and the multi-LLM dialogue bundled perturbations rather than pruning them. That is not elenchus; that is a well-read scribe. The Socratic function only appeared when you asked "have these been validated?" and let an external scorer answer without a stake in the outcome. So the honest showcase is: the dialogical method generates hypotheses at a rate no single scholar can, and it needs a separate adversarial step, registration plus independent scoring, or it drifts toward confirmation. Framed that way, the two Zenodo records plus the addendum are a complete demonstration, failure modes included, and that is more persuasive to scientists and engineers than a clean win would be. One-line version: Bridge360 shows promise as a governance and pre-registration discipline, and the LLM-as-interlocutor method works when, and only when, one interlocutor is allowed to say no. … Use these URLs to view the pertinent conversation – the first covers generation of a Bridge360 Metatheory Model for those unfamiliar with this metatheory model. [https://chatgpt.com/share/6a9790c4-0830-83e8-b044-3a0748a5b492](https://chatgpt.com/share/6a9790c4-0830-83e8-b044-3a0748a5b492)  [https://www.perplexity.ai/computer/tasks/6a355175-d190-4ed3-8e85-7242cf6b3009?view=thread](https://www.perplexity.ai/computer/tasks/6a355175-d190-4ed3-8e85-7242cf6b3009?view=thread) Backgrounder here. [https://zenodo.org/records/17851815](https://zenodo.org/records/17851815)  [https://zenodo.org/records/20020501](https://zenodo.org/records/20020501)  [https://zenodo.org/records/19547281](https://zenodo.org/records/19547281)  [https://zenodo.org/records/19553540](https://zenodo.org/records/19553540)  [https://zenodo.org/records/17838451](https://zenodo.org/records/17838451)  [https://zenodo.org/records/17838675](https://zenodo.org/records/17838675)  [https://zenodo.org/records/17838578](https://zenodo.org/records/17838578)  [https://zenodo.org/records/19144956](https://zenodo.org/records/19144956) 

**TL;DR:** *Mortgage rates have climbed back to their highest level since late July 2025, pressured by a mix of higher Treasury yields, hotter-than-expected inflation data, energy-price concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty. Worth keeping in perspective: this is roughly where rates were when the significant improvement phase began last summer, not some new uncharted territory. The 30-year fixed is sitting in the low to mid 6s for well-qualified borrowers on a conventional purchase depending on your credit profile and loan type. If you were ready to buy at 6% in February and the current environment has you second-guessing, recognize that the February dip into the mid to upper 5s was the exception, not the baseline. Today's rates are historically normal. For buyers who can comfortably afford today's payments and plan to hold long-term, several strategies can help: buying down the rate with points, temporary buydowns, and aggressive rate shopping. The biggest risk of waiting is the price-rate trade-off: lower rates often coincide with higher prices and more competition. Buy when you're financially ready, find a home that meets your needs, and never purchase assuming you'll refinance later. You need to be comfortable making your current payment for as long as you own the home.* "Should I wait for rates to come down?" "I was ready to buy when it was below 6%, but now rates are back up. Should I pause?" "We've been house hunting for months and just when it looked like rates were finally dropping, this happens." If you're shopping for a home right now, you're facing a market shaped by geopolitical uncertainty, stubborn inflation, and elevated Treasury yields. A mix of factors including hotter-than-expected inflation data, energy-price concerns from the Iran conflict, and broader bond market pressure has pushed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate back to its highest level since late July 2025. That is worth putting in perspective: these are the same rates that people were genuinely relieved to see last summer when rates began their significant improvement phase. The question of whether to buy now or wait has become a common question seen on Reddit. Here is the reality check: we are not in uncharted territory. The February dip into the mid to upper 5s was a welcome reprieve, but it proved short-lived. Rates in the 5s are not out of the question. That is a realistic target depending on how the macro environment evolves, but getting there could take months or more than a year, and there is no guarantee. Most forecasters project rates will hover in the 5.75–6.75% range for the foreseeable future, with Fannie Mae targeting just under 6% by year-end at the optimistic end of the spectrum. This post is not about predicting where rates will go. Nobody knows for certain. It is about how to think about buying in the current environment, the strategies that can make homeownership more affordable today, and why waiting for significantly lower rates may not be the answer you are looking for. # Part 1: Understanding the Current Environment As of May 2026, well-qualified borrowers on conventional purchases are seeing rates in the low to mid 6s, though rates vary meaningfully depending on credit profile, down payment, loan type, and which lender you use. The 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to its highest level of 2026, with the mortgage spread running approximately 200–225 basis points above Treasuries. These rates represent a meaningful increase from the February 2026 lows, when rates briefly dipped below 6%. Two factors are driving the current environment. The U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran that began in late February 2026 sent oil prices surging from around $71 per barrel to over $100 per barrel within two weeks, fueling inflation expectations. Then on May 12, the April CPI report confirmed those fears with a 3.8% annual inflation reading, the hottest since May 2023, which triggered a sharp bond selloff and pushed mortgage rates to their current highs. [Mortgage rates over the past year \(source MortgageNewsDaily.com\)](https://preview.redd.it/4xmu93h8id2h1.png?width=772&format=png&auto=webp&s=819a22db5228a1879cfcf5d92bceeb50d5bd83b0) The current rate environment did not happen overnight. During 2020–2021, the pandemic drove rates to historic lows, with the 30-year fixed hitting 2.65% in January 2021, the lowest weekly average ever recorded by Freddie Mac. During 2022–2023, the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate from near zero to over 5% to combat inflation, and mortgage rates surged past 7%, eventually touching 8% in late 2023. Through 2024–2025, as inflation moderated, rates gradually declined and the Fed began cutting rates in late 2024, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.50–3.75% by early 2026. In early 2026, rates continued their slow decline, briefly touching the mid to upper 5s in February before the Iran conflict and the May inflation data reversed the trend entirely. At its most recent meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee held rates steady at 3.50–3.75%. Fed Chair Powell acknowledged the uncertainty created by the Middle East conflict but noted that inflation expectations remain "anchored" and that the Fed has limited tools to combat supply shocks like rising energy prices. Markets are no longer betting on imminent cuts given the inflationary pressure from elevated oil prices and the hot CPI data. The Fed projected one more 25 basis point cut in 2026, but timing remains uncertain. # Part 2: Historical Perspective on "High" Rates Before you despair about rates in the low to mid 6s, consider the historical context. |Period|Average 30-Year Rate| |:-|:-| |1971–1980|8.86%| |1981–1990|12.70%| |1991–2000|7.95%| |2001–2010|6.29%| |2011–2020|4.09%| |2021–2025|5.82%| The period from 2011–2020 was a historical anomaly, not the norm. Those ultra-low rates were the product of extraordinary monetary policy following the 2008 financial crisis, including quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates that persisted for over a decade. The all-time high was Freddie Mac's recorded average of 18.63% in October 1981. People still bought homes. Looking at historical buyers puts today's hand-wringing in perspective. Those who purchased in 1981 and held their homes saw rates drop dramatically through the 1980s and 1990s, refinancing multiple times and ultimately locking in rates below 5% by the 2010s. Meanwhile their home values appreciated significantly. Buyers in 2000 at 8% rates looked expensive compared to buyers in the mid-1990s, but they still built substantial equity and benefited from home price appreciation over the following two decades. Buyers in 2018 at 4.5–5% rates were told by some commentators that rates were "high" compared to the sub-4% rates of 2016. Today those buyers look prescient. The lesson is consistent: what feels "high" today often looks reasonable in retrospect. **The refinance option is real, but it should never be your plan.** If rates fall significantly in the future, you can refinance. This asymmetry works in your favor: you can benefit from lower rates without giving up your home, but if rates rise further, your existing rate is protected. However, too many buyers in 2021–2022 were told to "buy now, refinance later" by loan officers trying to close deals. Many of those borrowers are still carrying higher rates years later, either because rates never dropped enough to justify refinancing, or because their circumstances changed and they no longer qualified. **The rule is non-negotiable: you must be comfortable making your current mortgage payment for as long as you own the home.** If you can only afford the house assuming a future refinance, you cannot afford the house. Refinancing is a bonus if it happens, not a lifeline you are counting on. The scenarios are instructive. In Scenario A, you buy at today's rate because you can comfortably afford the payment, and rates drop in two years. You refinance and reduce your payment. Nice bonus. In Scenario B, you wait for rates to drop, but during that time home prices rise 8%. When you finally buy, the lower rate is largely offset by the higher purchase price, your monthly payment ends up similar, and you spent the intervening years paying rent. Neither scenario is guaranteed. But Scenario A only works if you could afford the original payment. # Part 3: The Real Cost of Waiting One of the biggest misconceptions in real estate is that lower rates automatically mean better buying opportunities. In reality, rates and prices often move in opposite directions over time. When rates drop, buying power increases, more buyers enter the market, competition intensifies, sellers gain leverage, and prices rise. When rates rise, buying power decreases, fewer buyers qualify, competition eases, sellers may negotiate, and prices stabilize or fall. This dynamic means that waiting for lower rates might result in paying more for the same house, because the house itself costs more by the time you buy. The total monthly payment may be similar either way. Every month you continue renting, you are building equity for someone else's balance sheet rather than your own. But the buy-versus-rent calculation is not as simple as comparing your rent check to a mortgage payment, and it is worth being honest about that. A $500,000 mortgage at current rates carries a principal and interest payment of roughly $3,100 per month before taxes, insurance, and any HOA or PMI. All-in monthly housing costs for a $500,000 purchase commonly run $3,700–$4,000 or more. For many borrowers, that is meaningfully higher than what they are currently paying in rent, and pretending otherwise does not serve anyone. The relevant question is not whether buying is cheaper per month (in most markets today, it is not). The relevant question is whether the long-term wealth-building, fixed payment structure, and equity accumulation of homeownership justify the higher near-term cost given your income, timeline, and financial stability. On a $500,000 loan at current rates, approximately $500–600 per month goes toward principal reduction in the early years. That builds real equity regardless of what happens to home prices. Whether that equity accumulation and the other benefits of ownership justify the monthly cost premium over renting is a personal financial decision, not a universal answer. Nobody consistently times real estate markets successfully. Rates are influenced by an impossibly complex web of factors: Federal Reserve policy, inflation expectations, global bond markets, geopolitical events, mortgage-backed securities spreads, and investor sentiment. As we have seen in 2026, unexpected events can reverse trends overnight. Those who were confident rates would continue falling in early February found themselves facing the highest rates since late July 2025 by mid-May. The people who benefit most from homeownership are those who buy when they are ready, hold for the long term, and refinance opportunistically when rates improve. # Part 4: Strategies for Buying in a High-Rate Environment If you have decided to proceed with a purchase despite elevated rates, several strategies can help make homeownership more affordable. https://preview.redd.it/57nizuouid2h1.png?width=1025&format=png&auto=webp&s=0a8eee04f14a0b4ae1dc4ce72b21d02d9dcae352 **Buying down the rate with discount points** allows you to prepay interest upfront in exchange for a lower rate. One point (1% of the loan amount) typically reduces your rate by approximately 0.25%. On a $500,000 loan at 6.5%, paying 2 points ($10,000) might reduce your rate to 6.0%, saving approximately $165 per month. Break-even is about 5 years. For buyers who plan to stay 7 or more years, buying down the rate can be an excellent investment. You are essentially prepaying interest at a known return, hedging against the possibility that rates do not drop as much or as quickly as expected. See my post on [Discount Points and Lender Credits](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1pt414p/) for the full mathematical framework. **A 2-1 buydown** temporarily reduces your rate for the first two years of the loan. In year one, your rate is reduced by 2%; in year two, by 1%; in year three and beyond, you pay the full note rate. On a note rate of 6.5%, you pay 4.5% in year one, 5.5% in year two, and 6.5% thereafter. The cost of the buydown (typically 2-2.25% of the loan amount) is almost always paid by the seller as a concession in a buyer-friendly market. Buyers rarely pay for buydowns out of pocket. To clarify a common misconception: the seller's concession does not go to the lender's profit margin. It is deposited into a third-party escrow account at closing, and the servicer draws from that account each month to cover the difference between your temporarily reduced payment and the full note rate payment. If you refinance before the buydown period ends, whatever funds remain in that escrow account are applied to your principal balance. You do not forfeit them. **The critical caveat:** you must qualify at the full note rate (6.5% in this example), not the temporarily bought-down rate. The temporary reduction helps with cash flow in the early years, but your qualification is based on the payment you will eventually make. **Adjustable-rate mortgages** offer lower initial rates than fixed-rate mortgages, though the spread has compressed significantly in the current environment. A 7/1 or 10/1 ARM might be offered at 6.00–6.25% compared to 6.25–6.50% for a 30-year fixed, a much smaller gap than in typical markets. When ARM spreads are this thin compared to 30-year fixed rates, the risk-reward calculus is less favorable than it would be in a more stable rate environment where spreads widen. ARMs work best for buyers who have a defined timeline and are confident they will sell or refinance before the fixed period ends. If you cannot refinance when the adjustable period begins due to credit issues, job loss, or underwater equity, you could face payment shock. **First-time buyer programs** at the state level can offer meaningful savings. Many states offer programs with below-market rates or down payment assistance, typically structured as deferred or shared appreciation second mortgages. Income limits and purchase price caps apply, but for eligible buyers, these programs can provide rates 0.25–0.50% below market and thousands of dollars in down payment assistance. Ask your loan officer about state and local programs in your area, as availability and terms vary widely. **A larger down payment** reduces your loan amount, lowers your monthly payment, and can improve your rate through better LTV pricing. On a $600,000 home, putting 20% down ($120,000) instead of 10% ($60,000) reduces your loan from $540,000 to $480,000. At 6.5%, that is a difference of roughly $380 per month in principal and interest. Additionally, 20% down eliminates private mortgage insurance, which typically costs 0.2–1.0% of the loan amount annually. **Seller concessions** can be a powerful tool in a higher-rate environment where sellers face fewer qualified buyers. Concessions can be applied toward closing costs, discount points to buy down your rate, or a temporary buydown. On conventional loans for primary residences and second homes, seller concessions are limited based on LTV: 3% at 90% LTV or higher, 6% at 75–90% LTV, and 9% below 75% LTV. For investment properties, seller concessions are capped at 2% regardless of down payment. # Part 5: Loan Product Considerations In an uncertain rate environment, the choice between fixed and adjustable rates becomes more consequential. **Fixed-rate mortgages** provide certainty. Your payment never changes (excluding taxes and insurance). If rates drop, you can refinance. If rates rise, you are protected. **Adjustable-rate mortgages** offer lower initial rates but carry rate risk. They work best for buyers who have a defined timeline or who are comfortable with uncertainty. Current ARM margins and caps matter significantly. Understand your worst-case scenario before choosing an ARM. The 15-year versus 30-year decision involves real trade-offs. A 15-year mortgage typically carries a rate \~0.50% lower than a 30-year. In the current environment with excellent credit, that might mean 5.75% versus 6.25%. The trade-off is a significantly higher monthly payment. On a $500,000 loan, the payment difference between a 30-year at 6.25% and a 15-year at 5.75% is roughly $800–$900 per month. For buyers who can afford the higher payment, the 15-year option builds equity faster and saves substantial interest over the life of the loan. But the flexibility of a 30-year term (with the option to prepay) is more prudent for borrowers who value cash flow flexibility in uncertain economic conditions. Government-backed loans often carry slightly lower rates than conventional loans and may be more accessible for borrowers with lower credit scores or smaller down payments. FHA loans require a minimum 3.5% down with a 580+ credit score but carry mortgage insurance for the life of the loan (if under 10% down), which adds materially to the effective rate. This is an important distinction from conventional PMI, which can be canceled. VA loans require zero down payment for eligible veterans with no monthly mortgage insurance, which is a significant advantage. VA loans can carry a funding fee (typically 2.15% for first-time use with no down payment), which is usually financed into the loan amount. Veterans with service-connected disabilities are exempt from the funding fee. For those who qualify, VA loans often represent the best overall deal in any rate environment. USDA loans provide zero down payment for eligible rural properties subject to income limits. # Part 6: The Mindset Shift Many buyers fixate on the rate to the exclusion of other factors. But the rate is just one component of total cost of homeownership, which includes purchase price, interest rate, loan term, property taxes, insurance, maintenance and repairs, HOA fees where applicable, and the opportunity cost of the down payment. A slightly higher rate on a home purchased at a fair price may be a meaningfully better outcome than a lower rate on an overpriced home purchased in a bidding war. Waiting for the "perfect" time to buy often means never buying. There is always something: rates are too high, prices are too high, inventory is too low, the economy is uncertain. For most people, homeownership is about building long-term wealth and stability. The most important factor is buying a home you can afford, in a location that meets your needs, and holding it long enough to benefit from appreciation and principal paydown. Higher rates have also created genuine opportunities that did not exist when rates were at 3%. There is less competition for homes, more negotiating power with sellers, fewer bidding wars, more inventory in many markets, and better inspection and appraisal contingency protection. If you are a well-qualified buyer who can afford today's payments, you may be in a stronger negotiating position than you would have been in a lower-rate, more competitive market. # Part 7: What Is Driving Rates Right Now The connection between the current macro environment and your mortgage rate is worth understanding, though the relationship is never as simple as a single cause producing a single effect. Mortgage rates have been pressured upward by a mix of factors: Treasury yields climbing to their highest level of 2026 as bond investors reassess inflation expectations, April's CPI report released on May 12 showing inflation running at 3.8% annually (the highest reading since May 2023), energy-price concerns from the ongoing Iran conflict keeping oil above $100 per barrel, and broader geopolitical uncertainty weighing on the bond market. These forces are interconnected rather than independent: energy prices feed into inflation expectations, which influence Treasury yields, which pull mortgage rates along with them. It is more accurate to say rates were pressured by this combination than to attribute the move to any single driver. To put the current level in context: rates in the low to mid 6s today for well-qualified conventional borrowers are roughly where they were in mid-to-late 2025, below the 7%+ rates of late 2023 and early 2024, well below the 8% peak of October 2023, and close to the long-run historical average. The February dip into the mid to upper 5s was the outlier. What feels like a painful return is actually a reversion to where the market was before a temporary reprieve. Most forecasters project rates will remain in the 5.75–6.75% range through 2026 and into 2027. Rates in the 5s are a realistic goal, but one that depends heavily on the inflation trajectory and geopolitical resolution, and that could be months away, or longer. # Part 8: When NOT to Buy Despite everything above, there are circumstances where buying in a high-rate environment is inadvisable, and intellectual honesty requires covering them directly. If your debt-to-income ratio is stretched at current rates, waiting may be wise. Being house poor with no financial cushion is risky in any environment and especially so when economic uncertainty is elevated. If layoffs are possible in your industry or your income is irregular, securing stable employment should come first. Missing mortgage payments has severe consequences for your credit and your financial future. Homeownership also locks you into a geographic area. If you might need to relocate for work, family, or other reasons within the next few years, renting preserves flexibility that is worth real money. Similarly, if major life changes are on the horizon (marriage, children, career change, further education), it may be worth waiting until the picture is clearer before committing to a 30-year debt obligation. If the monthly payment on homes you are considering is dramatically higher than your current rent, and refinancing would only marginally improve the situation, the math may not support buying now. Run the numbers carefully. Consider the full cost of ownership including taxes, insurance, maintenance, and opportunity cost on your down payment. Planning for reality in the current environment means buying only if you can comfortably afford the payment at today's rate without assuming any future reduction, locking your rate when you have an acceptable number in hand, budgeting conservatively with room for surprises, and treating any future refinance as a potential bonus rather than a component of your affordability calculation. # Part 9: The Long Game One of the underappreciated benefits of homeownership is forced savings through principal paydown. Every month, a portion of your mortgage payment reduces your loan balance. At a 6.5% rate on a 30-year mortgage, approximately 15% of each payment goes to principal in year one, and that share grows steadily over time. By year 10, approximately 28% of each payment builds equity. By year 15, 40%. By year 20, 55%. This represents wealth accumulation that renters do not achieve regardless of the rate environment. Your mortgage payment is also fixed (on a fixed-rate mortgage) while inflation causes wages and other costs to rise over time. This means your payment becomes relatively more affordable as years pass even without refinancing. Someone who bought a home in 2000 with a $1,500 per month payment found that payment quite manageable by 2010 because their income had grown while their payment stayed the same. This dynamic is especially relevant in an inflationary environment. Higher inflation, while painful in many ways, makes fixed-rate debt more attractive in real terms over time. Owning a home also provides options that renters simply do not have: the ability to refinance when rates fall, extract equity through a cash-out refinance or HELOC, rent the property if you need to relocate, sell and capture appreciation, or leave the asset to heirs as generational wealth. These options have real value even when rates are elevated. # Part 10: Taking Action If you are torn about whether to buy, five questions will clarify the decision quickly. Can you afford the payment at today's rate with a comfortable margin (not at maximum stretch)? Do you plan to stay in this home for at least 5–7 years? Do you have stable income and job security? Do you have an emergency fund beyond your down payment? Have you found a home that genuinely meets your needs? If the answer to all five is yes, current rates should not stop you from buying. In any rate environment, but especially when rates are elevated, **shopping for the best rate is essential**. Studies show borrowers who get quotes from multiple lenders save an average of 0.25–0.50% compared to those who accept the first offer. Get quotes from at least three to five lenders, including banks, credit unions, mortgage brokers, and online lenders. Compare not just rate but also fees, lender credits, and reputation. Two lenders quoting the same rate can have materially different total costs once fees are accounted for. In a volatile market, locking your rate is more important than ever. Lock early if you are satisfied with the rate and uncertain about direction. Given the current inflation environment, uncertainty is the baseline. Float with caution only if you have strong conviction rates will improve and can tolerate the risk of being wrong. Extended locks provide protection if you need more time before closing. Float-down options, where available, let you capture improvements while staying protected from the upside. For a full framework on the lock-or-float decision, see my post on [What Makes Mortgage Rates Move](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1pgmq87/). The best approach given today's environment: buy if you can comfortably afford the payment at today's rate without assuming any future rate reduction. Lock your rate when you have an acceptable number. Budget conservatively. View refinancing as a potential bonus, not a part of your affordability calculation. That framework has served buyers well in every rate environment in the history of the modern mortgage market. **Related posts:** * [How to Read a Refinance Proposal: What Your Loan Officer Should Be Explaining](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1rggehr/how_to_read_a_refinance_proposal_what_your_loan/) * [Discount Points and Lender Credits: The Math Behind Buying Down Your Rate](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1pt414p/) * [What Makes Mortgage Rates Move?](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1pgmq87/) * [The Fed Doesn't Set Your Mortgage Rate](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1pjyx3v/) * [Lock or Float: A Framework for Making the Decision](https://www.reddit.com/r/MortgageRates/comments/1pnj3bu/) *This post is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or lending advice. Mortgage rates, market conditions, and geopolitical situations change constantly. Individual circumstances vary. Consult with a qualified loan officer and financial advisor for your specific situation.*

After Middle East peace deal, crude oil drops 5%, but mortgages stay stuck right at 6.35%. Builders are freezing all projects due to high costs. Families are trapped: gas drops but homes stay completely unaffordable. Partial relief, structural crisis persists. # TOP 20 STORIES 1. **Global Oil Prices Plunge 5% on Breakthrough U.S.-Iran Peace Framework** | June 15, 2026 | 02:35 PM New York Time | Al Jazeera 2. **Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Nudge Down to 6.35%** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 PM New York Time | Norada Real Estate 3. **Homebuilder Sentiment Plummets in June on Rigid Regulatory Pressures** | June 15, 2026 | 02:14 PM New York Time | Reuters 4. **New Fed Chief Kevin Warsh Approaches Debut Press Conference Amid Rate Hike Jitters** | June 15, 2026 | 01:35 PM New York Time | Reuters 5. **Real Inflation-Adjusted Paychecks Fall 0.7% Below Rising Consumer Costs** | June 15, 2026 | 01:35 PM New York Time | WTOP / The Associated Press 6. **University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up to 48.9 as Gas Relief Teases Markets** | June 15, 2026 | 02:31 PM New York Time | The Guardian 7. **Median Home Listing Prices in Secondary Markets Hover At Threatening $440,000 Highs** | June 15, 2026 | 03:35 PM New York Time | Tri-Cities Journal of Business 8. **U.S. Industrial Production Edges Up 0.1%, Signaling Near-Stall Economic Activity** | June 15, 2026 | 03:17 PM New York Time | The Wall Street Journal 9. **15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Provide Shorter-Term Refuge for Affluent Buyers** | June 15, 2026 | 01:35 PM New York Time | Fortune 10. **Personal Savings Rates Crumble to 2.6% Under Severe Everyday Cost Pressures** | June 15, 2026 | 01:25 PM New York Time | LBM Journal 11. **National Average Gas Prices Hover Near $4.17 as Stations Lag Behind Crude Declines** | June 15, 2026 | 02:05 PM New York Time | Finder 12. **First-Quarter GDP Growth Cooled to 2.0% as Geopolitical Conflicts Dented Capital Flows** | June 15, 2026 | 03:34 PM New York Time | The New York Times 13. **Trade Deficit Narrows slightly to $55.9 Billion as Aggressive Tariffs Reshape Retail Sourcing** | June 15, 2026 | 03:17 PM New York Time | Bureau of Economic Analysis 14. **FHA Mortgage Options Track at 6.29%, Offering Narrow Relief Window for Lower-Credit Buyers** | June 15, 2026 | 12:35 aM New York Time | Fortune 15. **Corporate Execs Pivot Hiring Funds to AI Infrastructure, Threatening Wage Growth** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | InvestEd Inc. 16. **Emerging Market Fuel Crises Echo Home, Threading Worldwide Supply Chain Disruptions** | June 15, 2026 | 07:35 AM New York Time | Reuters 17. **VA Home Loans Sit At 6.07%, Remaining Brightest Spot for Eligible Military Families** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Fortune 18. **Treasury Yield Volatility Near 4.5% Keeps Credit Card Interest Rates At Crushing Highs** | June 15, 2026 | 02:35 PM New York Time | Yahoo Finance 19. **Social Security 2032 Funding Deadline Approaches with Little Room for Policy Errors** | June 15, 2026 | 11:35 AM New York Time | Fortune 20. **Conforming Jumbo Loan Limits Hold Firm at $832,750 Amid High-Cost Housing Stagnation** | June 15, 2026 | 11:35 AM New York Time | Fortune # TOP 20 STORIES SUMMARY [**01.Global**](http://01.Global) **Oil Prices Plunge 5% on Breakthrough U.S.-Iran Peace Framework** | June 15, 2026 | 05:35 AM New York Time | Al Jazeera Gas is about to get cheaper at the pump. President Trump announced a peace deal with Iran on social media, and crude prices immediately dropped **5.02%** to **$80.58 a barrel**. That's huge for an economy that's been getting crushed by energy costs for the past three years. For folks in the suburbs and trucking communities, cheaper gas means real relief from those brutal **$4.50 prices** everyone's been dealing with. The catch is it'll take months to clear mines out of the **Strait of Hormuz** and get shipping back to normal. **2.Average 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Nudge Down to 6.35%** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Norada Real Estate Rates dropped, just barely. **30-year mortgages** hit **6.35%**, down **one basis point**. But here's the thing, house prices haven't budged. So you're still getting crushed between high prices and high interest rates. Young families trying to buy their first home are basically maxed out on what they can borrow. The real question is whether dropping energy costs can finally push inflation down enough to help rates keep falling through summer. **3.Homebuilder Sentiment Plummets in June on Rigid Regulatory Pressures** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Reuters Finding a new house is tough. Builders are pulling back hard because tariffs are killing costs, regulations are getting way more expensive, and nobody's shopping. So what are they doing, **35%** are slashing prices, and **62%** are throwing in crazy incentives just to move inventory. For people trying to buy in growing areas, the housing shortage's about to get worse. Developers are basically waiting this out. Meanwhile, Congress is getting hit by over **1,100 groups** demanding an emergency housing fix. [**4.New**](http://4.New) **Fed Chief Kevin Warsh Approaches Debut Press Conference Amid Rate Hike Jitters** | June 15, 2026 | 07:35 AM New York Time | Reuters Your credit card bills and auto loans are about to get decided by a new **Federal Reserve** boss. **Kevin Warsh** takes over tomorrow morning for his first press conference, and the stakes are real. **Inflation's spiking**, but growth is weak. Most economists think rates should go up, but Warsh has always been the **AI-productivity-will-fix-everything guy**. What he decides on interest rates will hit your wallet hard. Markets are betting he holds steady for now, but everyone's watching what he says about the future. **5.Real Inflation-Adjusted Paychecks Fall 0.7% Below Rising Consumer Costs** | June 15, 2026 | 05:35 AM New York Time | WTOP / The Associated Press You're making more money on paper, but you're actually poorer. Wages went up **3.4%**, but **inflation** jumped to **4.2%**, a three-year high. That means your paycheck buys **0.7% less** than it did a year ago. Groceries are killing people's budgets. Everyone's cutting back on non-essentials just to pay for food. The peace deal in the Middle East should help with prices eventually, but that's weeks away. Right now, people are just hurting. [**6.University**](http://6.University) **of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Ticks Up to 48.9 as Gas Relief Teases Markets** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | The Guardian People are slightly less miserable. **Consumer sentiment** climbed to **48.9** from **44.8**, mostly because of the peace deal with Iran. But that's still way below where it should be. Families are still expecting inflation to stay around **4.6%** for the next year. Nobody's spending money because confidence is almost **20% lower** than last year. Everything depends on whether gas prices actually start dropping at the pump soon enough to change people's minds. **7.Median Home Listing Prices in Secondary Markets Hover At Threatening $440,000 Highs** | June 15, 2026 | 05:35 AM New York Time | Tri-Cities Journal of Business Middle-class people can't afford homes anymore. Prices are stuck above **$440,000**, matching the crazy pandemic peak from **2022**. **Mortgage applications** have tanked. Buyers are walking away from single-family homes because they just can't make the numbers work. Cities are scrambling to build townhomes as some kind of affordable option. If you're waiting for rates to crash, don't hold your breath. That's not happening in **2026**. **8.U.S. Industrial Production Edges Up 0.1%, Signaling Near-Stall Economic Activity** | June 15, 2026 | 03:35 PM New York Time | The Wall Street Journal The economy's basically stalling. **Industrial production** barely moved, up **0.1%** when everyone expected **0.3%**. Manufacturing didn't grow at all. Utilities actually shrank. For people working factory jobs, this is bad news. Companies are going to freeze hiring to protect whatever profit margins they have left. If factory orders keep being weak, layoffs could start hitting hard by the end of the year. **9.15-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Provide Shorter-Term Refuge for Affluent Buyers** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Fortune If you're rich enough for huge monthly payments, **15-year mortgages** just got a little cheaper. Rates dropped **13 basis points** to **5.786%**. But jumbo loans for expensive houses went up to **6.615%**. Middle-income people are stuck. You can't afford the **15-year option** because payments are massive, so you're forced into the expensive **30-year jumbo loans**. Rates might keep falling if bonds keep dropping, but that's not helping most people. **10.Personal Savings Rates Crumble to 2.6% Under Severe Everyday Cost Pressures** | June 15, 2026 | 05:35 PM New York Time | LBM Journal Americans are broke. **Savings** hit **2.6%**, the lowest level since **mid-2022**. People are literally draining their emergency funds just to pay bills. One car repair or medical bill away from disaster. Credit card debt is climbing because people have nowhere else to turn. If this keeps going, you're going to see people defaulting on everything. **11.National Average Gas Prices Hover Near $4.17 as Stations Lag Behind Crude Declines** | June 15, 2026 | 05:35 AM New York Time | Finder Gas is still expensive. Yeah, crude prices dropped, but pumps haven't. We're still at **$4.17 a gallon**, up from **$2.81** at the start of the year. Gas stations always drop prices slower than crude falls. People in rural areas are getting killed because they can't avoid driving. Maybe by next month we hit **$3.85**, but sub-three-dollar gas, don't count on it until way into next year. **12.First-Quarter GDP Growth Cooled to 2.0% as Geopolitical Conflicts Dented Capital Flows** | June 15, 2026 | 03:35 PM New York Time | The New York Times The economy grew, but barely. **2.0%** in the **first quarter**, dragged down by **trade shocks** and **shipping disruptions**. That's not enough for companies to start hiring. Workers are seeing fewer job openings and less overtime. The real question is whether the **Iran deal** injects enough momentum to keep us from sliding into a recession. Right now, it's pretty touch and go. [**13.Trade**](http://13.Trade) **Deficit Narrows slightly to $55.9 Billion as Aggressive Tariffs Reshape Retail Sourcing** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Bureau of Economic Analysis The **trade deficit** shrank, but here's the trade-off, everything you buy is more expensive. **Tariffs** are killing supply chains, and companies pass those costs straight to shoppers. Electronics, clothes, appliances, all going up. Seasonal sales are becoming rare, and everyday stuff costs more. Unless the government expands exemptions, you're going to keep paying higher prices even if energy gets cheaper. **14.FHA Mortgage Options Track at 6.29%, Offering Narrow Relief Window for Lower-Credit Buyers** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Fortune If you've got mediocre credit, **FHA loans** are your best shot. Rates dropped to **6.294%**, which is better than traditional banks. The federal government insures these loans, so lenders are willing to work with people who'd normally get rejected. First-time buyers are using **FHA** to save deals. The downside is you need proof of income and **mortgage insurance** adds to your monthly payment. **15.Corporate Execs Pivot Hiring Funds to AI Infrastructure, Threatening Wage Growth** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | InvestEd Inc. Forget about getting a raise. Companies are spending money on **AI** instead of hiring people. They're choosing to **automate** instead of posting job openings. For people in clerical, administrative, and support roles, the job market is brutal. Employers have all the power, and **wages** are getting crushed. This trend isn't stopping anytime soon. **16.Emerging Market Fuel Crises Echo Home, Threading Worldwide Supply Chain Disruptions** | June 15, 2026 | 07:35 AM New York Time | Reuters Developing countries are in **energy crisis**, and that's screwing up supplies here. The **IMF** says fuel and fertilizer costs jumped **50%** in energy-importing countries because of **blockaded trade routes**. That means imported food, winter produce, and components from overseas are all going to stay expensive for months. Your grocery bill stays high even when oil drops because international shipping is still a mess. [**17.VA**](http://17.VA) **Home Loans Sit At 6.07%, Remaining Brightest Spot for Eligible Military Families** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 PM New York Time | Fortune If you served in the military, **VA loans** are your golden ticket. Rates just hit **6.074%**, the best deal in the market. No down payment. No **mortgage insurance**. Veterans are saving thousands compared to regular buyers. Sellers sometimes give **VA offers** a hard time because appraisal standards are strict, but if you qualify, this is the move. **18.Treasury Yield Volatility Near 4.5% Keeps Credit Card Interest Rates At Crushing Highs** | June 15, 2026 | 11:35 AM New York Time | Yahoo Finance Credit cards are still insanely expensive. The **10-year Treasury yield** bounced back to **4.5%**, which means banks are charging crazy interest rates on **credit cards** because the government's deficit is out of control. If you're carrying a balance on credit cards just to pay utilities and groceries, **interest** is eating you alive. You need to get out of **credit card debt** yesterday. [**19.Social**](http://19.Social) **Security 2032 Funding Deadline Approaches with Little Room for Policy Errors** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Fortune **Social Security** is running out of money in **six years**. If Congress does nothing, benefits get cut **22%** across the board. Right now, there's way less room to negotiate than there was in **1983**. **Cost-of-living increases** are burning through the trust fund faster than payroll taxes can refill it. For people planning retirement or already collecting, this is terrifying. Congress is stuck, and nobody wants to make the hard choices. **20.Conforming Jumbo Loan Limits Hold Firm at $832,750 Amid High-Cost Housing Stagnation** | June 15, 2026 | 06:35 AM New York Time | Fortune If you need a loan bigger than **$832,750**, you're getting crushed. **Jumbo loans** charge **6.615%** and demand insane credit scores and massive cash reserves. For people in coastal cities trying to buy anything decent, you're basically locked out unless you can dump a huge down payment. Builders and sellers aren't moving inventory. This whole high-end market is frozen until Congress raises the limit next year. >If you found this content useful, consider joining r/TrumpGlobalWar to stay informed about the latest global developments. And if you think more people should see this, please give it an upvote to help spread accurate information

......This is chapter 11, just scroll down a little beyond the intro and you'll pick up where you left off...... Hey guys, I spent a lot of time writing this book, and I had this subreddit in mind as I was writing it, so I thought I would post it here for you for free. If you want the physical book you can always go on Amazon, but here's my gift to you 😄 I'll include links so you can jump between chapters easily. I hope you find it helpful. # The Strategic First-Time Homebuyer # Start to finish, with strategies to get approved and save thousands in interest, costs, and the down payment. # Contents   [Introduction 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlaie/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 1 How Much Can I Afford? ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlaie/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[3](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlaie/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 2 How Much Cash Do I Need? ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlbu2/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[16](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlbu2/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 3 How To Find The Down Payment ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl1vu/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[30](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl1vu/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 4 Your Debt To Income Ratio ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl3ls/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[41](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl3ls/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 5 Choose Your Lender 69](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl5xy/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 6 You’ve Been Denied (Your Credit) 80](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl8c3/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 7 Selecting a Real Estate Agent 90](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxldzr/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 8 Shopping For a House108](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlga7/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 9 Under Contract: Inspections and Appraisals 121](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxli4z/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 10 Under Contract: Rate Lock and Underwriting 129](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlk9e/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 11 How To Lower Your Rate 144](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlnt4/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 12 Closing 163](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlpp1/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 13 Post Closing 171](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlsiq/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [About the Author 190](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlsiq/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Glossary 191](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlsiq/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) # Chapter 11 Alright, here are the big strategies that will save you thousands of dollars, and over a long period of time, maybe even hundreds of thousands. Here are the strategies I’ll cover * Buydown (yes, I’ll cover this one more time) * Swap Out Equity * Market timing * First-Time Buyer Status (LLPA Waivers) * Your Income * Increase Your Credit Score * Rapid Rescore * Shop Lenders # Buy Down Your Interest Rate Like we’ve covered earlier, you can spend money up front in the form of points or origination fees in order to get a lower interest rate. Here's an example: *(Very hypothetical, not today's rates)* Consider it a menu of rates. Here’s the chart |Rate|Cost| |:-|:-| |8%|$0| |7.5%|$2,000| |7%|$5,000| |6.5%|$10,000| The lender you work with will have a chart like this. It won't have the same rates, and it won't have the same costs. In this scenario, rather than pay an 8% interest rate, you can add $2,000 to your closing costs and snag a 7.5% interest rate. Ask your lender for their rate chart, see if anything on their chart would be worth the cost. # Swap Equity You can do this by exchanging a higher appraised value for seller concessions. If your appraisal comes in high, you might be able to take advantage of it to lower your interest rate. Let's pretend the appraised value comes in at $510,000 but you're under contract for a $500,000 purchase price. You can write an addendum that makes you pay the full appraised value ($10,000 higher than the original contract price), but in exchange the seller will give you $10,000 in a closing cost credit, which you can use to lower your rate. In that chart above, I showed a 6.5% costing $10,000 So rather than pay an 8% rate, you can use a seller credit to secure a 6.5% rate. The tradeoff, you're going to have a loan amount that is about $10,000 higher, which will raise your payment a little bit. But the lower rate might have a bigger impact. In this scenario the seller gets close to the same dollar amount in the net. Builders kind of do this already. Builders have learned that they can make a home more appealing, and more affordable if they give you large concessions (seller credits). Dollar for dollar, the effect it has on your payment is much more substantial than getting a lower purchase price. The catch is they usually require you to use a specific lender. # Market Timing Rates change every day. It can behave erratically like the stock market. I look at it like the weather, because I'm constantly looking at this information. You can kind of get an idea of patterns, and you could guess sunshine most days in an Arizona summer. But every once in a while, people get it wrong. Here's what affects mortgage rates: * Inflation Data * Labor Market Data * Investor Behavior # Inflation Data Not a lot of people watch rates the way I do, but you may notice a trend with gas prices. When oil prices go up, so do mortgage rates. When gas goes down, so do rates. It’s not the sole indicator, and I wish it were that simple. There’s more to inflation than gas. Think CPI reports and other cost of goods reports. # Labor Market Data When people lose jobs, or are unemployed for a long time, it helps mortgage rates go down. The expectation is that the Fed will try to stimulate job growth by lowering rates. When the labor market grows, rates tend to go up too. Here are the reports that the Fed watches: * Jobless claims reports * New jobs added * Payroll reports It isn’t just the Fed watching these numbers. Investors are watching these numbers as well, and move money around in anticipation of what the Fed might do. # Investor Behavior Rather than watching gas prices, inflation, or labor markets, you could watch the 10-year treasury bill instead. The 10-year bond is a similar-enough investment vehicle to the mortgage-backed security (people invest in buying mortgages, and the average time for someone to have a mortgage is 7–10 years) When the 10-year bond rates go lower, mortgage rates go lower as well. When there is a bond auction, if there is a large ‘appetite’ for the 10-year bond, more money flows into it, and when money flows into it, rates go lower. Investor behavior affects this part. If you want an idea of where rates are going, look at the 10-year bond. # You Can’t Really Time The Market When you only have a week or two to decide whether or not you want to lock in a rate, it makes it much more complicated. It's easier to watch longer trends and say "next year, rates should be around here." But day-to-day, if an inflation report comes out tomorrow, and the report looks bad, it could cost you a lot of money if you decided not to lock. So rather than worry about everything that I mentioned about timing the market, here's what you should look into doing. # Use Rate-Locking Strategies Instead Lock whenever you can. Locking in a rate protects you against rising interest rates while you're under contract for a home. Check if the lenders you are working with offer certain rate-lock features # Lock and Shop “Lock and shop” means you can lock in your rate while you shop for a home. Not a lot of lenders offer this, but if you talk to one that does, see if you can lock in a rate over 90ish days as you search for your home. During those 90 days, rates can creep up. But if you've locked it in, you won't have to worry about that. "How'd you get that rate? Rates are 1% higher?" "I locked it two months ago." Now you look like a genius. # Rate Renegotiation If you've locked in a rate, and rates plummet due to some report (check the 10-year treasury yield, see how much it drops to give a clue if it's worth looking into) then check if your lender will still lower your rate. This is called a float down, or rate renegotiation. # Change Lenders Check if a mortgage broker will transfer your loan to another lender. If you're working with a mortgage broker, and if you've locked in a rate, but see that rates fall, see if that broker will help you transfer your loan to a different lender with a better rate. (If the current lender will not renegotiate). Brokers have this ability because they represent several mortgage lenders. So rather than time the market, lock when you can, and make sure there's room to pivot if rates drop. I've seen this tactic protect buyers from getting hit with a 0.5% higher rate during volatile markets. # First-Time Buyer Status (LLPA Waivers) As a first-time buyer, you could possibly get better rates than a second-time buyer. But your income could negate that benefit. (If you make too much money.) # Your Income As long as your income is at 100% or below the AMI (area median income) for your county (or 120% in HCOL areas), then you will get a better interest rate. Here's how to see what the AMI is in your area: [ami-lookup-tool.fanniemae.com](http://ami-lookup-tool.fanniemae.com) If your income is at 80% or lower for the AMI in your county, you may get even better rates than that. Something that a lot of loan officers don't know is that this is ***qualifying income*** not total income. Say you and your spouse want to be on the loan, but together you make 160% of the AMI. You wouldn't get a better interest rate because you make too much money. Here's the fix: Lower your qualifying income. As long as you can still qualify for the mortgage, just remove an aspect of the income that puts you above the limits. Here’s an example: You and your spouse make 160% of the AMI, but you can qualify for a mortgage with just your income. (Pretend your income lands you right at 80% AMI.) You don't need to remove your spouse from the loan, just cut the income from the application. That way, you can lower your qualifying income to snag a better interest rate. Here’s a bonus example: You can do this with certain aspects of your income too. Say you make over 100% AMI with salary + bonus, but if you removed your bonus income, and if your salary lands right under 100% AMI, then you can cut your bonus income from the application. As long as you can still qualify for the mortgage, then use the minimum amount of income needed to get the best interest rate. I've seen this tactic save buyers 0.375% on their interest rate. # Increase Your Credit Score Interest rates, and the costs for interest rates, are determined in tiers of 20 (700–719, 720–739, 740–759, 760–779, etc.). Once you get to a certain level, any improvement on your score might not make a difference. Say your score lands at a 719 and you're 1 point away from better rates, here's what you can do. Ask if the lender will re-pull credit. Depending on how much time you have, you might be able to pay down a credit card balance and increase your score. If the credit card company reports the new lower balance well before your scheduled closing, you might be able to take advantage of a higher score and lower rate. If you have any collections that were placed by mistake or surprise, look at paying it off with an agreement to delete the collection upon payment. Delete it like it never happened. That reports quickly. Once that's removed from your report, you should see your score jump, and your interest rate drop. I’ll give you a real example:  I had a collection account after I moved addresses. It was my internet bill. I did my part and called them before moving. I asked “Do I owe you anything? Am I clear?” The representative said I was fine, so it was out of my mind. Then Credit Karma told me that I had a collection account. My score had dropped from somewhere in the mid-to-high-700s to 660. A brand new collection dropped my score by about 100 points! I called the collection agency. They told me I owed a stupid small amount like $100. So I either asked or told (I was polite) “If we can delete this collection account like it never happened, I’ll pay right now.” The important part is deleting. If they only mark it as paid, then your score will continue to suffer. It needs to be wiped out like it never existed. They agreed to delete it, they sent me a letter for confirmation, and my score went back to its previous number. Your loan officer will have your credit report. Ask for a copy of it (they’re charging you for it, over $100, so you’d better get a copy.) Review it, check for higher credit card balances, mistaken collections, or anything else you might be able to do to get your score to the next tier up. # Rapid Rescore If the credit card company or collection company will take too long to report it to the bureaus, then check if your lender will do a rapid rescore. With a rapid rescore, you pay off the balance, you get a letter from the creditor stating the new balance, and you get a new credit score in a week or two. Depending on the jump in score, you may be able to save 0.125% - 0.5% on your rate. # Shop and Negotiate With Lenders A lot of people get squirmy when it comes to negotiating. But here’s the easy part: all loan officers are selling the exact same thing. It’s not like they’re selling a product that has different terms. If you’re looking for a 30 year conventional mortgage, then one loan officer’s 30 year conventional mortgage won’t have different terms. They’re all fixed for 30 years. So I’ll walk you through the easiest way for you to compare a lender’s offer with another. So it comes down to numbers: Rates and lender fees. # “But I don’t want everyone pulling my credit.” You might say. That’s valid, except here’s a tip about shopping for a loan: The credit bureaus want to make a lot of money. They charge lenders for credit reports, and they encourage you to get your credit pulled more. So they’ve made a rule that if you get your credit pulled for the exact same product (like a mortgage) within 14 days, it won’t impact your score. So once your credit is pulled, you have two weeks to check out other lenders and their offer without getting your credit dinged or donged. # Quote Using The Same Document Your job is to keep the offer as “apples to apples” as possible. Here’s what I mean: If one loan officer is using their own spreadsheet, and the other officer is using his own software, you’ll see different formats, and it will be confusing to tell whose fees are higher. But there is a document that all lenders legally need to provide, and that’s the official loan estimate. Comparing the same document between two lenders simplifies the shopping process. But there’s more you can do to make it easier to compare. # Quote The Same Product If one loan officer is showing you a conventional mortgage and the other is showing you an FHA loan, it’ll be impossible to tell which lender has better rates. Have the loan officer make their case for why FHA is better, and if you agree with it, then have the other loan officer give you an official loan estimate for their FHA loan too. # Quote The Same Rate This might confuse people, because you thought we were shopping rates. How can you shop rates if they offer the same rate? Remember that menu of rates that I covered earlier? It’s the chart that shows you which rate comes with a buydown cost, and which rate doesn’t. Each lender has their own chart. Let me give you an example: Lender 1’s Chart |Rate|Cost| |:-|:-| |6.625%|$0| |6.500%|$1,000| |6.375%|$3,000| Lender 2’s Chart |Rate|Cost| |:-|:-| |6.750%|$0| |6.625%|$1,000| |6.500%|$3,000| It would be pretty safe to assume Lender 1 has the better offer. If you were to ask a lender if they have a better rate than 6.625% then the lender might take advantage and assume you don’t know about buydowns, and say “I have a 6.5%.” But you know what to check. Make them both quote you at the 6.625% and you’ll see that Lender 1 is charging $0 in buydown, while Lender 2 is charging $1,000 for the same rate. You just saved $1,000. How does it feel? Let’s say you’d rather have the lowest rate, and you’ve budgeted about $3,000 in buydown costs. You’ve already established Lender 1 as the better offer, so then you ask, “can I have a rate with about $3,000 in buydown cost?” With Lender 1, you can get 6.375% while Lender 2 was offering 6.5% at the same cost. Lender 1 saved you 0.125% on your rate. That’s how you can shop rates. First you shop lender fees, determine who the better lender is, and then you can drop the rate with the better lender. Now let’s take it a step further. You might assume that Lender 1 has the better offer, but we need to look at the numbers more carefully. On page two of your official loan estimate you will see your closing costs itemized. Don’t get confused here, because some lenders will overestimate property taxes or homeowners insurance. Don’t hold that against them. Those costs will be the same, regardless of the lender. So you can’t say “Lender 2 has better homeowners insurance, I’ll go with Lender 2.” That wouldn’t make sense because the lender doesn’t pick who you use for homeowners insurance. You pick that. So you’ll compare only 3 sections: 1. Section A 2. Section B 3. Section J Let’s say both lenders are quoting the 6.625% rate. # Lender 1 Section A: * $3,000 Origination fee * $1,200 Underwriting fee * $0 Points Section B * $600 Appraisal * $700 Processing * $200 Credit Report Section J * No lender credits Lender 1’s total: $5,700 # Lender 2 Section A: * $0 Origination fee * $1,100 Underwriting fee * $1,000 Points Section B * $600 Appraisal * $0 Processing * $135 Credit Report Section J * No lender credits Lender 2’s total: $2,835 When you zoom out you’ll see that Lender 2 actually has the better offer. Some lenders will hide the fact that they’re charging an origination fee, but not buydown points. So you’ll want to add it up like this. Lenders might not charge a fee in one place, like points, but they might make up the cost elsewhere by charging an origination fee. Remember: have the lenders quote the same rate, the same product, get a loan estimate, and compare sections A, B, and J on page 2. # One More Step If you want to take the negotiating an extra step, do a little back and forth. Send the competing loan estimates to the competing lenders. Show them “This is what I was offered, would your company be able to offer anything lower?” If they do, then you send that Loan Estimate to the other competing loan officer. Make sure they’re sending loan estimates, not just promises. The back and forth will frustrate loan officers, but if you’re up front with them from the start, telling them “I’m shopping around, looking for the best offer.” Then they’ll be more understanding, or at least they should be. # How I Would Shop I don’t like shopping much. I tried it once for solar panels. I picked the more affordable option (same product) and it also came with a roof warranty, so I picked it. The company ended up going bankrupt mid-project and I had to pay extra to finish it. You’ll want to vet the lender’s ability as well. If your lender came with a recommendation from your agent, then I’d lean toward that lender, just because there’s real proof that the specific loan officer can deliver. I would probably do one round of shopping, see what’s out there, then pass that loan estimate to the recommended lender and ask if he can match. If he can match, then I’d be done. I don’t like the back and forth, and I’d want to make the decision within a day or two of being under contract. I don’t like making people do a lot of work for nothing. So I’d keep it quick. *One more tip:* *Don’t worry about hurting people’s feelings. The loan officer you don’t pick will cry a few tears, and will forget about you the following day.* *And one last tip:* *If you don’t know where to shop for loan offers, visit* [*tools.newbhomebuyer.com/loanshop*](http://tools.newbhomebuyer.com/loanshop)*, and ask for a second opinion.* By doing these steps, you’ll end up with a much lower rate, saving you thousands in interest, or you’ll save thousands of dollars in up front costs. When you buy your house, I want you to celebrate hard for me. Get that fancy food or drink because you saved thousands of dollars by reading a book. # Contents   [Introduction 1](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlaie/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 1 How Much Can I Afford? ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlaie/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[3](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlaie/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 2 How Much Cash Do I Need? ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlbu2/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[16](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlbu2/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 3 How To Find The Down Payment ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl1vu/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[30](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl1vu/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 4 Your Debt To Income Ratio ](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl3ls/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)[41](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl3ls/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 5 Choose Your Lender 69](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl5xy/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 6 You’ve Been Denied (Your Credit) 80](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxl8c3/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 7 Selecting a Real Estate Agent 90](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxldzr/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 8 Shopping For a House108](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlga7/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 9 Under Contract: Inspections and Appraisals 121](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxli4z/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 10 Under Contract: Rate Lock and Underwriting 129](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlk9e/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 11 How To Lower Your Rate 144](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlnt4/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 12 Closing 163](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlpp1/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Chapter 13 Post Closing 171](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlsiq/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [About the Author 190](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlsiq/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/) [Glossary 191](https://www.reddit.com/r/NewbHomebuyer/comments/1sxlsiq/a_firsttime_homebuyers_guide_start_to_finish_the/)

[“Those who do not understand the true pain of a “Bear market can never understand the true peace that exists within a “Bull Market”](https://preview.redd.it/ay3lmcyycfm91.jpg?width=1280&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=be02c434e8bdefe2a3a16e844aa07ce06406ecec) &#x200B; **Disclaimer :** &#x200B; >*"I really really really wanna apologize to you all guys because i was suppose to send this newsletter first thing on Monday. But unfortunately i got caught up in the Chess drama that is taking place in the Sinquefield cup 2022"* &#x200B; So moving on... &#x200B; * This post is not about making lambo profits in a day but instead what we do here is we come with unthinkable tactical trading styles like what we do in chess that will help us navigate this “Stagflationary” and then later on “Forgotten Depressionary” stock market. Yes guys our situation is that messed up. * Also you’re advised to “Do your own research” and not to take this post seriously to a point that you sell your house and start taking trades with me. I don’t provide financial advice here. We just analyze stock market using Naruto references w/o even mentioning Naruto as a figurehead anywhere. * Spoiler alert : He will arrive once i think we are close to bull market. xD &#x200B; &#x200B; **Intro : ( A conversation for fun and entertainment purposes only. )** &#x200B; *\* Enter Conference room 1* &#x200B; Me : “Good morning gentlemen. I think i came up with an interesting idea while i was all high and drunk this weekend” Investors : “Really whenever you get all high and drunk we tend to make a whole lot of money. Haha” &#x200B; Me : “Guys, it's gonna be a bold statement but I think we are finally heading to our next stage called stagflation. So we might wanna change our strategy that we normally did after 2008 Gfc” Investors : “What ? Are you sure about that? How confident are you in your analysis ?” &#x200B; [Most important research paper from Jackson Hole. Read \\"Four Research paper\\" post.](https://preview.redd.it/3wwiu3yglfm91.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=520f4048d3e65563e6e86fee23833bb2ba4f6957) &#x200B; Me : “So i read this paper at Jackson hole symposium that if there is no coordination b/w the government and the Fed then due to fiscal spending the trend based component of inflation will actually move in opposite direction. Adding people/company expectations of the Fed to pivot will cause even more inflation. The Fed is also hiking rates in a recession which at some point is gonna cause unemployment to rise up to "NAIRU" which according to my friend Larry Summers is at 5%. Investors : “Interesting. But you see we have never ever everrrr heard on Wall Street of raising rates causing inflation to trend up even more higher or remain stable. How is that even freakin possible ? Did you fail your economics class young man? ” &#x200B; Me : “Just so you guys know I only went to my Ecom 101 class and skipped the rest but you see I am pretty confident of the Math done by Francheso and Leonardo. Earlier I had my doubts because Milton Friedman used to tell us inflation is always a monetary phenomenon. I even told Francheso on twitter that. But after getting high this weekend I think these guys are right. This inflation is very different compared to any we have ever experienced before due to high debt/gdp ratio. Investors : “You’re crazy. We are not confident with this investment” &#x200B; Me : “I have full autonomy with the investment strategy. You guys already signed the agreement when you used my Wall Street Newsletter analysis” Investors : “Do not throw our agreement in our face, Uchiha. We had an underlying understanding that you wouldn't act like a goddamn crazy man. But you always do after watching too many anime. Who even names himself after some cartoon character” &#x200B; Me : “ Look guys. This is not crazy. It’s very logical” Investors : “So you want us to buy metals, commodities or defensive stocks and eat losses instead of Dcaing index or growth stock until this magical stagflation period not only arrives but stays longer than everyone is expecting. This has only happened just once in history before” &#x200B; Me : “That’s correct” Investors : “You’re out of your f mind\*\* Walk away from the conference room. &#x200B; Me : \*Sitting alone. Ringtone buzzing… “Hello” Secretary : “They are here” &#x200B; &#x200B; Me : “Okay tell them to wait in conference room 2. I am coming” &#x200B; [Strategist vs Trader ](https://preview.redd.it/m4zn1meslfm91.png?width=1878&format=png&auto=webp&s=63f7fa5ee768594e1af71766086c9bb30fd35041) &#x200B; *\* Enter conference room 2* &#x200B; Me : “Sit down. Nobody talks today” Traders : “He is not greeting us today” &#x200B; Me : “Divide yourself into two groups of traders who took trades and profited & the ones who missed entry” Traders : ….. …… &#x200B; Me -> Traders who missed entry “Guys how could you miss the f’in entry when i clearly told you the levels to place your shorts before Jackson Hole. I even told you that there will be a bull trap rally first. I mean guys c'mon was the "Danzo vs Sasuke" video reference not enough for y'all. How will you ever make money ? &#x200B; &#x200B; [Newsletter and the comment that Trader 1 is arguing about.](https://preview.redd.it/hofz49fkmfm91.png?width=1842&format=png&auto=webp&s=020072f323cbd4e63d0e1962704df3184aac67df) &#x200B; Trader 1 : “But sir although you nailed the first peak and the levels perfectly but you missed the second peak by one day in wall street newsletter 10 ( Predicted august 29/30 i.e. monday/tuesday dump but dump happened on friday aug 26 ) and told us nothing will happen in Jackson Hole in later on non numbered newsletter” ( in comments ) &#x200B; Me : “ You know what you’re absolutely f’in right trader 1. I am so so stupid that i relied only on my crystal ball 2-3 months ago. Should’ve also consulted with an astrologer too. Maybe I would have nailed the second peak perfectly to the date. Trader 1 : “Yes sir. We need an astrologer. I heard billionaires have theirs too” &#x200B; Me : “Are you f’in stupid. That was sarcasm. Nobody can time the market. Period. Nobody, me including me. God you folks will make me lose my mind. Also you might wanna take that back. Yes I told some individuals that I'm not expecting anything from Powell but I never mentioned such things in a non numbered letter. I only gave you the levels. You could have bought inverse etf’s to prevent theta decay. Did you ? Trader 1 : \* Silent &#x200B; Me : “Yah i guessed so. \*\*After calming down Me : “Look guys. I love you guys so much. More than you believe. But if you keep using my letters for timing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to perfect day and levels then you’re gonna miss out on so many easy trades. You have to use these letters just for reference and implement it in your own trading style and not copy pasting it. Guys I am not gonna be right 100% of the time. Just look no further than last week. I said $4017 and $4058 are two profit taking zones and the levels to deploy short. Only the first order and bear short got executed but the second take profit got stopped at breakeven due to some bad economic data. So I think I have cleared some confusion that I wanted to but couldn’t as we were all on a break. Now c'mon guys cheer up. Yes you missed out on XXXXXXXX profits but think of this way you didn’t lose money. As Peter Lynch always used to say “Don’t let yourself down just because you missed a 10 bagger stock like microsoft or any other. There will be thousand more investing opportunities in the future” In our case it's thousand more trading zones. I hope you guys learned your lesson so i give you 5 stars out of 10 for your trading performance. Now you can go and have snacks first. “ &#x200B; Me -> Traders who made profits. Trader 2 : “haha. Sir we made a killing in powell week by buying itm and atm puts at your levels.” Me : “You guys get 4 stars on trading performance just because you followed a cartoon newsletter advice and profited. Get back to work now” &#x200B; Moral of the story is based on your interpretation. :) Apologies if that interpretation may have hurt your feelings. That was clearly not my intention. &#x200B; &#x200B; So at last finally moving on... **Respected Investors and Traders,** &#x200B; [\\"Pain = Gain\\" if you're bearish. XD](https://preview.redd.it/az0icb97nfm91.png?width=997&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a1388bb30c6ceafc10c5eab79d0abb668acba63) &#x200B; How are you doing folks? I hope you guys enjoyed and partied this long weekend. If you didn’t well then if you found something interesting in your research then do share in the comments section. I read all of them. xD God it has been quite a while hasn’t it. Some of you guys wanted the newsletter back because season 1 was quite a massive hit on Wall Street. So here I am back with season 2 weekly content. I got many Dm’s that people made profits/ recovered losses with our trading strategies. I just wanna say guys “ Thank you. But in all honesty we were just lucky. So be careful from now on. Things are about to spiral out of control coz Sept + Q4 is apporaching” Guys I am gonna try to live up to season 1 standards which i understand is already gonna be a huge challenge for me. 3 wins 1 draws 0 losses is not easy score to beat. But i will try. Let’s see how it goes. &#x200B; &#x200B; **Recap : ( Yes folks. Long Cnbc weekly recaps are back with my commentary xD )** &#x200B; [The news i want to see but down below is the news i get. xD ](https://preview.redd.it/ewiphroqdfm91.png?width=1005&format=png&auto=webp&s=5b7295d7263696c81e59dfb50425426865323f99) &#x200B; * U.S. needs a 'miracle' to avoid recession, warns Stephen Roach ( You're damn right ) * Banks should grow earnings through the next recession, says Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo ( Get liquidated first xD ) * Energy markets on edge as violence erupts in Baghdad ( Hmm ) * This market requires patience, do not pay attention to day-over-day changes: Citi's Kristen Bitterly ( That's why i do weekly and monthly analysis. Cant trust daily ) * Small business still not showing strong recession signals, says Paychex CEO. * ESG policies are a 'huge problem' and create investment risk, says Sen. Steve Daines ( Climate change is real but these people pushed ESG narrative down our throats just like Internet Dot com times ) * Exxon Mobil escalates dispute with Russia after government blocks exit from oil and gas project ( Putin doesn't like you ) * Wolfe Research's Chris Senyek weighs in on the impact of Fed rate hikes on the real economy * Goldman Sachs anticipates housing market growth to slow sharply ( Ofc it will when mortgage rates are flying over 5%) * Consumption declining as a result of China's zero-covid policy, says MSA Capital managing partner * Lucid files new $8 billion offering ( Who ? I just know only Tesla and Ford xD ) * Cloud is a once-in-a-generation transformation, says VMware's CEO, Rangarajan Raghuram. * Metaverse faces hardware headwinds for VR future ( We need Quantum computing now ) * Oil supply in Q4 looks to be ahead of demand, says Clearview Energy Partners' Kevin Book ( Don't copy me ) * Restaurants rely on automation to offset labor shortages ( Did Tesla optimus bot dropped early xD ) * Equity and credit markets are underpricing recession, says Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management. * We think we're close to the end of this rate hike cycle, says Sand Hill's Vingiello ( Tbh guys 2yr fwd hence is matching 2 yr nominal. My old pal Alan Greenspan used to do just one rate hikes after this matching thing ) * Crowdstrike beats expectations, shares lower despite strong guidance * Chewy misses revenue expectations and lowers guidance as stock tumbles in after-hours trade * EV makers need enormous amounts of cash to reach mass appeal goals, says fmr. Ford CEO Mark Fields * Celsius Holdings CEO on how Amazon helps drive sales and the benefit of Pepsi's investment (Why are you jealous) * Jackson, Mississippi, has no water to bathe, cook or flush the toilets ( For those who don't know Burry was investing in water ) * California passes landmark fast food workers bill ( Who else is applying for work in MacD job ) * Goldman Sachs lifts all Covid protocols; requires workers to return to the office ( I am not coming xD ) * BYD shares sink in Hong Kong after Warren Buffett's Berkshire trims stake ( I love investing in Hong kong index ) * I would not count on Iran oil to ease market tightness, says Energy Intelligence's Amena Bakr * We're interested in small and mid-cap equities, says JPMorgan's Elyse Ausenbaugh ( Guys do you know in 70's decade small cap performed well ) * European markets extend losses as Russia halts gas supplies ( Wen crash ? ) * Market volatility has to pick up in the coming months, says RBC's Amy Wu Suliverman ( Ofc it has to considering its mid terms yr ) * Snap plans to cut 20% of employees in hopes of saving $500 million annually. * New York City employers are ready for the post-pandemic phase, says Kathryn Wylde * It's going to be a tight oil market this winter, says Husseini Energy's Sadad Al Husseini * Fed Chair Powell is winning with commodities, says Jim Cramer ( Inverse it ) * Fed's Loretta Mester sees a benchmark rate above 4% ( 4% by dec is what she not saying xD ) * A squeeze on systematic strategy positioning drove the recent rally, says Deutsche's Chadha ( No dummy it was all planned ) * The ad market may not be as bad as people thought, says Oppenheimer's Helfstein ( First i want influencers and financial gurus recession xD ) * As demand weakens, there will be more margin and pricing pressure for HP, says Wells Fargo's Rakers * Domestic airfare prices drop after a red-hot summer ( Cool. Euro parity vacation is on ) * We continue to see very strong demand for our products and services, says HPE CEO * Investors getting too defensive could be a big mistake, says Wilmington Trust's Shue ( Dude chill we will play offense ) * Take advantage of energy undersupply if there's demand destruction , says SVB's Saccocia ( wtf ) * PayPal gets an upgrade from Bank of America ( who remembers my portfolio ) * Defense stocks still have more upside, says RBC Capital Markets' Ken Herbert ( Dont go too defense xD ) * Pure Storage is a clear winner in a beaten down tech sector, says Simpler Trading's Danielle Shay * Pearson CEO on student loan debt relief: It's a step in the right direction ( Debatable topic ) * We see volumes normalizing, says Georgia Ports Authority director * There's better place to play in payments than networks like Visa, says Mizuho's Dolev ( Paypal > Visa for me ) * There's going to be plenty of online real estate touring but not as many deals, says Redfin CEO ( so lower the housing prices a--h--e ) * I think Snap is making the right moves, says MKM's Kulkarni * We're seeing core categories trend in the right direction, says Chewy CEO * DSW expanded thanks to expanding share in athleisure wear, says Designer Brands CEO * Target could capture 25 percent of sales if BBBY continues store closures, says UBS' Michael Lasser * The removal of Fed puts has caused these bear market challenges, says Ritholtz CEO Josh Brown ( For those who dont know Fed put hint = bullish , Fed call hint = bearish ) * PayPal will see tailwinds in 2023, says Aureus Asset Management's Karen Firestone * Rates will need to go higher for longer, says JPMorgan's Gabriela Santos ( Yes everyone knows that ) * FirstMark's Rick Heitzmann on Snap's restructuring: Smart move the best companies have been making ( I just hope Miranda doesn't leave him ) * The Chartmaster updates his big 'sell all Apple' call after its recent drop. ( It was so obvious ) * Jim Cramer says Cheniere and Tellurian are two pure-play LNG stocks to consider ( Hello Inverse although need to do homework first ) * CrowdStrike CEO talks about the growth of its identity protection business and cyber spend resiliency ( Why isn't cybersecurity stock doing well ? Hmm ) * U.N. inspectors arrive at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant ( Need chernobyl season 2 ) * Life expectancy in the U.S. drops again * First-ever housing development powered heated and cooled by geothermal technology ( cool ) * Pres. Biden declares federal emergency over water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi * Nvidia, AMD stocks fall on U.S. orders to cease all sales of key AI chips to China ( Trade war back on ) * Kleintop: Dividend payers have been outperforming all year in the U.S. and Europe * MicroStrategy shares take hit after DC AG accuses founder Michael Saylor of tax fraud ( Just like dotcom times xD ) * California's over-reliance on renewables is costly and unreliable: Heritage Foundation's Morgan ( Do you guys know california tax people more who uses green energy for electricity. xD ) * Investors should play a long game with a dollar-cost averaging strategy, says Sylvia Jablonski ( This is why you get paid big bucks to Dca. xD ) * China locks down 21 million people in southwest city Chengdu. * Tesla files lawsuit challenging Louisiana's dealership model. * Wall Street still needs a 'proper' bear market, says Bryn Mawr Trust's Jeff Mills ( The word he should be using is secular bear market ) * New study shows no-fee trading may be costing investors $34 billion ( Mf's how much money do you guys need ) * China has become a more complicated place to invest, says David Rubenstein ( Max fear = take my money. xD ) * Texas vs. Big Banks: Tracking the cost of anti-ESG laws. * Europe is in a 'dangerous' situation with Russia over energy, says former U.S. Energy Secretary ( oh now you get it ) * It's too early for investors to pile into the market, says G Squared's Victoria Greene ( March 2023 is when you pile ) * I would expect more and more subsidies to come to chip makers, says Citi's Danely. * Microsoft's Activision Blizzard deal faces more scrutiny in the U.K. * August ISM Manufacturing index comes in above expectations. * We see a lot of opportunities in chip stocks as long-term investors, says Brad Slingerlend ( me too ) * Fixed income as a way to manage risk looks good in your portfolio, says JPMorgan's Camporeale ( Before FI = risk free now FI = too much risk free ) * Fed rate outlook surges after Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's comments. * We are seeing continued strong demand for child care, says Bright Horizons CEO. * Lagging wage growth has the same recessionary effect as high unemployment, says Veritas' Greg Branch. * Market bottom will be around 3,800, says Oppenheimer's Ari Wald. * Stay defensive in a recession, says Permanent Portfolio's Michael Cuggino. * Hybrid work is now the lead job type, says Recruiter.com's Evan Sohn. * Water crisis in Mississippi's capital gets even worse ( :\_( ) * We're seeing the intersection of climate change and aging water infrastructure, says Xylem CEO. * U.S. restricts chip exports to China as Bernstein lowers Nvidia price target ( To $127 we go ) * We want to stay relatively short in the equity markets says Captrust cio. ( Welcome to bear club ) * Door-dash is more innovative than Uber says JMP securities Andrew Boone. ( What ? ) * Banks are more focused on what rate hikes mean for credit quality says Key Corp Ceo. * We are the beginning of a protracted multi year growth cycle says Chargepoint CEO ( We are in 7yr, 40yr, 95yr, 100yrs, 400yr, cycle ) * Starbucks news CEO Laxman Narasimhan takes helm in April 2023. * Fundamentals will start improving after September CPI reports says Ed Yardeni. ( Guys Bear market rally 3 will start this month ) * Business travel demand ramp up this fall should boost airline stocks, JP morgan predicts. * Motorola solutions CEO says this is the strongest demand environment he has ever seen. * Cramer : I prefer Pioneer Natural Resources over Marathon Oil. * Options action : Big bets against Okta. ( Hi ha ha SS ?) * Pollak : The surprisingly strong labor market has been the bright spot in this economy. * Well Fargo : It maybe difficult to get a substantial bounce in equities the rest of the year. ( Really i just said above we bounce ) * Hansen : Potential competition for LNG from Asia could keep the energy crisis elevated in Europe. * China covid lockdowns have spooked energy markets says Energy aspects Amrita Sen. ( Haven't they saved you ) * The US needs to find a way to coexist with China says former US commerce secretary. * Shenzhenn fears complete Covid lockdowns as cases increase. * Lululemom shares jump on earmings. * The economy will go into recesion and earnings will fall says Even flow Macro's Marc Sumerlin. ( Well someone is smart ) * Market will see higher 10-yr treasury yields says Komal Sri Kumar. &#x200B; * Jobs report : Job growth unexpectedly surges in August as payrolls grow by 315,000 Unemployment rises from 3.4% to 3.7% in August. No wage inflation. &#x200B; * Ford-150 lightning sales best in August since its launch. ( cool ) * The job's number don't indicate a soft landing says Roger Fergurson. * Russell Wilson and Carrier partner for clean air. * We now have the tools to lower inflation says White house economist Brian Deese. ( Yes you used Volcker ) * July factory orders fall short of expectations ( This caused the downturn ) * Fed could step down from 75 to 50bps after Friday job's report says Goldman's Hatzius. * Avelo Airlines Ceo says people will not give up their trips but might travel less. ( What ? ) * Today's job report is best of both worlds for the Fed says Stifel's Pigeza. ( wanna know what he said in market close ) * Labor union chief Mary Kay Henry weighs in on California fast food bill. * There's a ton opportunity in the Vertical software space, says Wolfe Research's Munda. * We expect to be profitable by Q4 this year and full year FY24 says PagerDuty Ceo' * Jim Cramer says unprofitable stocks especially tech may have even more room to fail :) * Market respond to Apple's upcoming release. ( 6.5% of Spy, 11% of QQQ ) * Significant gains made in fixing Jackson, Mississippi's River. * Three stock lunch : Tesla , Zoom , Roku ( The guy adores Cathie ) * Inflation could be falling far faster than expected, says Tom Lee ( Even if the Sun disappeared this mf would still be bullish ) * Jobs report was Goldilocks : UBS : Fed should do another 100bps by Dec. Our base case is further volatility, earnings downgrades, and higher than exp default rates over course of next year. * Meta secures new partnership deal with Qualcomm ( I told you so ) * Investors favor stocks with stable, visible cash flows, says Bryn Mawr Trust's Jeff Mills. * High rates are driving consumers to rental properties, says Black Knight's Andy Walden. * I would caution people to not read into Friday's market moves, says Keith Fitz-Gerald. * Inflation reduction act could push workers toward the climate industry. * Recession is starting us in the face because the Fed's actions havent kicked in says Dave Rosenberg ( Rates are lagging ) * People are going out because gas prices are down and the job market's healthy says Wedbush's Setyan. * Don't fight the fundamentals or the Fed says Satori Fund's Niles. * We look at Crude oil and say it could go much higher says Opis Kloza. * The Monday holiday is a factor in late day sell off says Bleakley's Boockvar. * Watch what Apple's doing, they're the bellwether says Jmp Mark Lehman. ( September 7 guys ) * You can start to dip your toes into biotech here, says Jefferies Yee. Ex : Vertex Pharma, Gilead Sciences, Immunocore Holdings, Ventyx Biosciences. * US economy doesnt turn on a dime talk to me in six months says Solus Dan Greenhaus. * Americans are more optimistic about the economy for the first time in 4 months. Consumer confidence is up! * Stock picks for tough month (dividend stock ) : CVX (Kevin Simpson) , ABBV (Andrew Graham) * Investors should expect a rainbow after the September storm. \~ Jessica Inskip Options play director of product and education ( ofc jessica Bear market rally rainbow ) * Inflation hits back to school shopping as parents look to second hand clothes :\_( * Spaceports pop up around the country and not all communities are happy about it. ( Really pop at my place. Our community will be so much happy ) &#x200B; &#x200B; >*Omfg. That was super boring as hell. Sorry guys if i made you sleepy. If you manage to make it this far trust me from here things will be interesting :)* &#x200B; &#x200B; **Different type of people using different type of styles on Wall Street :** https://preview.redd.it/nqebgpdgnfm91.jpg?width=852&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fa1a68b5cbdc8e96daaf9e9dd318defa9b925566 &#x200B; Normally these are the 12 different type of people on Wall Street. **1.** ***Johnny Wall Street*** If you live in New York or are just passing through, you know this guy. He wears custom-made shirts with a dark Prada suit... no tie. In his office, he tells his co-workers to protect him on a lunch print, his cool way of ordering lunch. Johnny Wall says he's a size buyer when he sees a hot chick. He's the last one to show up at his high school reunion driving his newly leased BMW convertible and checking his Rolex. My friends and I just call him "J Wall" for short. &#x200B; **2.** ***Lax Boy*** This guy is in his late 20s or early 30s and you can bet he grew up in Jersey, Long Island or maybe Westchester. You'll overhear him talking about how he crushed it in Vegas last weekend or how the hostess at Stanton Social was "vibing" him last night. He refers to everyone as Bro, Pal, Chief, Guy or Boss. &#x200B; ***3. The Bionic Woman*** I wouldn't be surprised if she had nunchucks in her Celine bag. She answers your question before you even ask it. She works harder than the men in her office and is on top of everything. She's impeccably dressed and you'd never know she's already had two babies. The click of her Louboutins on the pavement echo for blocks. &#x200B; ***4. The Guy without a GPS*** He took a wrong turn after college. He has a perpetual scowl on his face. He hates Wall Street, but makes more money now than he could by doing anything else. His dad got him the interview and it snowballed from there. He has a girlfriend with pouty lips, but she's on the other side of the bar with her friends. &#x200B; ***5. The Crusty Old Dude*** Crusty has white hair and a custom-made suit. Tawny liquor flows like a swirling sculpture in a rocks glass in front of him. He doesn't talk about stocks or bonds; he's more concerned about flow charts and restructuring upper management on a cocktail napkin. When you try to give him money for your drinks he just holds up his hand and looks insulted. &#x200B; ***6. Somebody's Sister*** She doesn't try to use sex appeal to further her career - just the opposite. She saves that for the weekends. She shows up every day ready to work and never appears hungover. She can be spotted crossing the avenue holding a salad and a kale shake. &#x200B; ***7. The Really Good Looking Bad Boy*** He was valedictorian, three-sport captain in high school and majored in charm. With his modelesque features and charismatic smile, he'll steal your heart - and your 401(k). Do you really think the Devil would dress like the Devil if he were actually the Devil? &#x200B; ***8. The Husband Hunter*** This girl has no desire to climb the corporate ladder. She's on Wall Street for one reason and one reason only: fishing in a husband hatchery. She doesn't care about Sheryl Sandberg; the only reason she's leaning in is to show you her cleavage. (Call me.) &#x200B; ***9. The Stephen Hawking and Bridget Jones Love Child*** He made it to Wall Street because he's scary smart - and you want him on your team - but he's so socially awkward it's painful. He can even sneak the word "duration" in explaining how long it took him to go to the bathroom. Still, there's something lovable about him. &#x200B; ***10. Austin Powers*** He's just a dude - laid back and works relatively hard. But he's undercover. You can't catch him talking about business unless he's at a steakhouse with other suits. He secretly rolls his eyes at Wall Street jargon and it's hard to catch. He won't mention he works on Wall Street until the third date - but that's why she falls for him. &#x200B; ***11. I'm Doing God's Work Man*** He's the busiest guy on Wall Street - just ask him. He wears his uniform proudly and acts like trading stocks is as important as finding a cure for cancer. He can be found yelling at his wife through his cell phone at all hours of the day. &#x200B; ***12.*** ***The Unusual Suspect*** He's a family man. His office is adorned by 3rd grade artwork and soccer photos. He'll kick back a couple drinks with you at a bar near Pier 11, Grand Central or Penn Station. But once the clock strikes 6 p.m., he'll limp out of the bar like Keyser Soze, then gradually pick up the pace to a full on sprint when he hits the sidewalk to catch the next train. &#x200B; Whatever i told you above is pure trash. As Gandhiji used to say, "Hear out the bad information from one ear and throw it outside from the other ear". Reason being this is what "they" wanted to tell us through yahoo and cnbc articles. Allow me to show you my perspective which btw is totally crazy. So choose whichever article you want to believe. &#x200B; **Have you guys ever heard of Dreamwalk ?** ( If anyone knows Mr Wonderful "Kevin O' Leary" tell him to get a medical diagnosis. Dude was in my dreams instead of Taylor swift ) &#x200B; Well if you didn't that's what we will be doing today is deep diving inside the minds of four different types of people using trading strategies in the stock market. &#x200B; It is very important to know who you’re trading against and their styles because you never know when this information may come in handy. Think of it like a game of chess where you study your opponent's moves and then come up with a plan beforehand to gain a slight edge over him. ( That is how my friend beat Carlsen. But the question is was the info leaked? ) &#x200B; &#x200B; **1.** ***Retail / FI / Youtube & Twitter guru’s trading strategy :*** &#x200B; [SPY](https://preview.redd.it/s751y2wtnfm91.png?width=1917&format=png&auto=webp&s=e93beace8ae97b4c73ba6128579ac74be57422ba) [QQQ](https://preview.redd.it/zi07hbwtnfm91.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=600ab012158cb037b129846265cc08757e07dedc) Theory : This is what I called a retail level based analysis. The retail people use their beloved SPY and QQQ chart and assume that there are major supports and resistances in the chart with a crayon trend line slicing those moving averages. For indicators they use stochastic rsi / rsi with macd and see whatever works. But these types of analysis never give you the time or perfect levels to buy but yah DCAing multiple levels look like a good strategy to them. But unfortunately these people don't know when to sell. ( They only know catching a falling knife ) &#x200B; So currently a retail is bearish ( coz Fed pivot got smashed by powell and 200dMA f’ed them bad ) and would say SPY Buy : $369, 362, 339 QQQ Buy :$269, 237, 231 &#x200B; &#x200B; ***2. HF’s and institutions trading strategy :*** &#x200B; [sp500Candles\(\) : This function is being followed right now](https://preview.redd.it/b87waz0gqfm91.png?width=1848&format=png&auto=webp&s=13a0ce9f71fa2e0d17b7e47205c2575c434c579e) [nasdaqCompositeCandles \(\) : This can happen if sept 20-21 is crazy event.](https://preview.redd.it/ibezj21gqfm91.png?width=1822&format=png&auto=webp&s=c468ade732b413c9c00d446fb983550a94fe76c5) &#x200B; So Hedge funds and Institutions know what the perfect levels are gonna be for bounces but that service is only available to premium members aka cheaters. Also they come on Cnbc and Bloomberg to confuse people and speak sh9t. Normal people who work in their office just code stuff or receive calls from clients to take trades. So here i will write a simple algo on a high level w/o getting involved in deep details &#x200B; *USA stock market Algorithm ( For fun and entertainment purpose only )* &#x200B; String Powell = “ “; // Current status : Himself Int u = x; ( x = current cpi ) If ( Powell = “Himself” ){ copytrade(sp500Candles() ); // Two touch crash starts from November 2/3rd week ( Most likely ) } else if ( Powell = “Volcker” ){ copytrade(nasdaqCompositeCandles () ); // One peak i.e. fast crash starts from Sept fomc. } else if ( Powell = “ArthurBurns”){ if( u < 8.6 ) { NasdaqUp( ); // 1971-72 times ( Disinflation ) SpxUp( ); } else { NasdaqDown( ); // 1970-71 times ( Reinflation ) SpxDown( ); } } &#x200B; Note : Sorry to harm your feeling "Algo traders" Please don't take this seriously. &#x200B; &#x200B; **3.** ***Cheaters trading strategy : Let’s cheat ( ) = sp500candles(); / nasdaqCompositeCandles();*** &#x200B; [Higher TF analysis of sp500Candles\(\) on weekly time frame](https://preview.redd.it/qr5vbkvtnfm91.png?width=1825&format=png&auto=webp&s=9eee5c3c8671cbb3926bad05c062a651bda1d58b) I don’t wanna call these people out but you guys already know who uses this trading strategy. I love this style because I outsource all the dirty work to investment bankers. So the cheaters call your Jamie Dimon and other ceo of banks to forward them the levels to buy and sell. The technicians in the respective banks make the different charts according to the data that will be coming. But all charts reach the same conclusions i.e. the levels to buy and sell. Finally these levels are forwarded to the signal app chat of the cheaters. Apparently the signal ceo and I are friends so we just read their message and take trades. xD &#x200B; Buy zones : Spx : 200wMA ie. $3400-3600 at oct 1 or 2nd trading week. And just buy nasdaq when spx hit these levels. I am not giving a Nasdaq sheet. I gotta keep something for me :) Sell zones : Spx : x.xx% retrace at November 2 or 3rd trading week. &#x200B; Note : Everybody knows this technique by now that 2008 = 2022 be it vix or s&p500. That’s why i am so bored and have lost interest in markets. &#x200B; &#x200B; Now at last i guess things to make even more unpredictable we have. &#x200B; ***4. Illuminati trading strategy :*** ( Fyi dont copy this technique. Just smile when it happens. Only few people know about the Gann Law of 7 but every f body uses Gann law of 3 ) &#x200B; So as you all know my brother Itachi wrote “Stock market is about to collapse in 47days” and predicted atleast a W bottom is coming. Max scenario levels he didn't mentioned coz he never tells the whole part of the story. But i will. &#x200B; Let's study their last 7 big hits aka -18%+ crash just so everyone is one the same page. &#x200B; \- 2015 : Chinese market plunged -30% in three weeks. ( I am not gonna show this Dyor ) &#x200B; [2008 vs 2001](https://preview.redd.it/58ilkne9rfm91.png?width=1817&format=png&auto=webp&s=b7ed7be2c07a522f8398090707aac22695eb6bd8) \- 2008 : Usa stock market collapsed in september. \- 2001 : Usa stock market collapsed in september. &#x200B; [1994](https://preview.redd.it/xe44p70drfm91.png?width=1812&format=png&auto=webp&s=424f5656891a9386dfd0d0e6d9da314f38464191) \- 1994 : Bond slaughterfest. ( We went -54% to complete this carnage full on ) &#x200B; [1987 vs 1980](https://preview.redd.it/ud1nv1aerfm91.png?width=1812&format=png&auto=webp&s=3cdb115503e4776f1dd82e0e0944ea4ee39d160e) \- 1987 : Black Monday crash \- 1980 : Volcker crash &#x200B; [1973 vs 1966](https://preview.redd.it/u7ffr5afrfm91.png?width=1802&format=png&auto=webp&s=008e1c315e7b8529e0a39d4de29159bcccb2c55d) \- 1973 : Arthur got burned \- 1966 : Vietnam/Korean war. &#x200B; Note : The difference is always 7 and the accelerated crash happens over the span of 1 month. So if you wanna apply this technique then prepare yourself for a -20% from $4300 ( we covered this level ) to $3400-3500 by oct 2nd week. Funny thing is it matches with our banking cheat sheet. So maybe even worse than this ig ie. $2875 my 100mMA. :) &#x200B; **Note :** I have discounted the **"Noob level strategy"** by people who just buy and sell based on other people analysis or by Yolo'ing. &#x200B; &#x200B; **Result :** *How to use this info ?* We attack first by our shorts. Also i am not giving you guys exact date because of the story above. Just range will do for now. But i will give you exact levels of top of Bear market rally 3 but first i need to see the bottom of this leg down. I hope you are understanding all of this and not getting even more confused than before. &#x200B; [He played with \\"Black\\" btw and attacked.](https://preview.redd.it/flbn1qb4ofm91.jpg?width=676&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=304f4d18f5590761bed31c8a9ac1cec0f9a5c395) &#x200B; **1.** ***Strategy 1 : Roy Lopez ( No risk, good reward )*** Well if i were you trynna play safe, I would just sell the rumor 75bps and buy it when we hit Fed Fomc sept 20 but not necessarily long again. Then i will continue to wait for top of bear market rally. If it comes good then i short at top. If it doesn't well then i will still be happy to buy at such ridiculous discount and adding to my value stocks. I am not sharing what those are. Dyor and maybe this season i might share it and then we shall see if there are some common stocks we share. &#x200B; Shorting zone : Anything above $3900 Spx Target : Fed Fomc sept 20. and then short again november 2nd - 3rd week &#x200B; ***2. Strategy 2 : Evan's Gambit ( Medium risk, high reward )*** ***I love this strategy*** &#x200B; Shorting zone : Anything above $3900 Spx Target : 200wMA ( Should come by oct 2nd week if shmita doesnt happen ) and then long in oct 1-2nd week till november 2-3rd week. &#x200B; ***3. Strategy 3 : King's Gambit/Fried Liver attack ( Maximum Risk, Max reward )*** &#x200B; Shorting zone : Anything above $3900 Spx Target : 100mMA ( Should come by oct 2nd week if shmita happens ) not longing here until we get those f'ing numbers. &#x200B; Note : Many people are speculating longing after Cpi 13th or Sept 20 Fomc but we are not doing that. Why? Because we don't copy others. &#x200B; &#x200B; **Risk of September 2022 :** &#x200B; * Michael burry is calling every bears in town. No he doesn't call us but rather he tweets two times to show he is serious. Apple buy the rumor sell the news event ft. Perma Bears. &#x200B; https://preview.redd.it/av8jxl5uafm91.png?width=1918&format=png&auto=webp&s=0c4e54c7f2b1119ce6173ca28c078d5fd1292ae0 * Powell is coming to give a speech. Today it starts with Fed chair Brainard and then tomorrow we hear from Powell &#x200B; * Then we CPI coming on 13th. So watch out for Bloomberg estimates coz they get priced into the markets. &#x200B; * Then we have our September Key fomc due to economic projections. I am praying to god powell rugpull us and take Goldman and JP morgan traders to hell with them coz those guys will long after this event. And if the Illuminatis do show up will take trades opposite them since they need humungous liquidity to execute order 666. &#x200B; https://preview.redd.it/ugw2bq8wafm91.jpg?width=1242&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c2f626e65cec1c59fcacf2ad3491363bfffbca5e * September 25 : "End of Elul" so exp idk something on september 26 or september 23. &#x200B; * Final est of Gdp idk last week with Core PCE. Not a big event imo coz all the fireworks will happen before. &#x200B; &#x200B; &#x200B; So guys again I am gonna warn you that "Bank runs are coming by March 2023". So be careful of not leaving your money in the bank. xD &#x200B; Be humble ! Stay safe ! Eat healthy ! &#x200B; Thank you Regards Uchiha &#x200B; P.s. I know this post suck so much that i too wanna vomit because these things are already repeated. But that is exactly i wanna teach you. Keep believing these analysis and the prophecy might just come true :) &#x200B; [Calling to Kei : How do i bring my motivation back. :\(](https://preview.redd.it/i1z0h62vbfm91.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=c4ead5bc0fbd1f5cd833b72ad152c0bc5f3caadf)

Equities have quietly shifted from a “buy-anything-growth” tape to a choppier, inflation‑haunted regime where defensive leadership and sticky rates demand more selective, volatility‑aware risk taking. Having a decision framework that walk you through the funnel from macro-to meso-to micro is essential in these environments: not to predict a crash or melt‑up, but to force you to align environment, participation, risk, and allocation before you press any trades.​ # 1. Environment: Risk is no longer cheap The first question is blunt: should risk be taken at all?​ Recent data say the cost of risk just went up: * January U.S. producer prices surprised to the upside, stoking fears that inflation progress is stalling and pushing back hopes for easier Fed policy. * Major U.S. indices slipped into late February as that “hot PPI” print hit the tape, with the Dow down over 500 points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also finishing lower. * Commentary around rates has shifted toward “higher for longer” and an elevated term premium, hinting that long yields may have a floor even if growth cools.​ Through my lens, that’s a **selective** environment, not outright “risk off” and definitely not “anything goes.” Breadth is still functional in places, but the macro backdrop now demands that any equity risk be justified by participation and volatility rather than by macro optimism alone.​ Structurally, that argues for: * Staying engaged with equities, but * Raising your threshold for what “good enough” looks like in participation, and * Embedding volatility and rate uncertainty into position sizing and holding periods.​ # 2. Participation: Capital is rotating, not retreating The second question: if risk is on, where is it being rewarded?​ The last month answered that clearly: * Defensive sectors have led: Utilities rallied roughly double‑digits in February, their best run since the early 2000s. * Consumer Staples and Energy also outperformed, with Energy sitting at or near the top of the year‑to‑date performance tables. * Growth and high‑beta tech have wobbled, with notable pressure as inflation and rate expectations reset, even though AI‑linked names still show idiosyncratic strength. https://preview.redd.it/3gissw76jimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=3dedf55bc108ea114d4d4d69a272600fb6e62322 To me, participation has **rotated** rather than vanished. Capital is still in the pool; it has simply moved toward sectors that either:​ * Benefit from rate and inflation uncertainty (Energy, some value and cash‑flow rich names), or * Offer perceived safety and stable cash flows (Utilities, Staples, parts of Health Care).​ That’s important structurally: you don’t treat this like a liquidity vacuum or a credit event. You treat it as a regime where your benchmark for “leadership” has shifted from hyper‑growth to defensive yield plus quality cyclicals.​ https://preview.redd.it/7vtsq8s7jimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4ea48a68858a77f5e49e4368bed4fca7aaa3db43 # 3. Momentum Emergence: Leadership is defensive, but still moving Next layer: where is leadership gaining or losing speed right now?​ The tape tells a nuanced story: * ROC‑style moves have flipped: what used to be “boring” (Utilities, Staples) has become the source of positive surprise, with multi‑standard‑deviation weeks to the upside. * High‑beta tech and speculative pockets have seen downside ROC outliers, especially around inflation data and rate repricing days. * Within Energy and AI‑infrastructure, individual names still show upside impulses, but they live in a more volatile macro container. https://preview.redd.it/oxpxok3ajimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=c20445a7af6f66df8244fe898306c3781e4149f1 From a momentum‑emergence standpoint, the **impulse** has rotated into defensives and quality cyclicals, while prior leaders now show more mixed, choppy trend profiles.​ For structural posturing, that favors: * Leaning into sectors where ROC is positive and persistent (defensives and select value), and * Treating tech momentum as tactical and event‑driven rather than as the default core.​ # 4. Risk Validation: Volatility is a veto, not a detail I treat risk validation as a veto layer: is volatility confirming or contradicting what price and participation suggest?​ Right now, the cross‑market read is: * Volatility has expanded episodically around inflation and Fed repricing; risk assets sell off together when the data hit, then sort themselves out as the dust settles. * Sector‑level “RV ratios” conceptually are rising in the growth and high‑beta complex and less so in defensives, which tend to experience more orderly advances and smaller drawdowns.​ * Beta to SPY remains high in many tech names; Utilities and Staples have delivered equity‑like returns with lower incremental volatility over the recent window. Within the funnel, this says: * You can be long equities, but you cannot ignore tape risk. * Any trade that depends on “vol will stay low” in high‑beta growth should be sized and timed as if that assumption is fragile.​ * Ideas in sectors where RV ratios are compressing (defensives, quality yield) pass the veto more easily than ideas in sectors where volatility is expanding.​ https://preview.redd.it/py6hzxvbjimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fac5a70b1113e61799719889b8f99c7751eb32b7 Structurally, you want **risk‑weighted** exposure: think “equity beta of 0.7–0.9 with better Sharpe” rather than max‑beta leverage into a choppy macro tape.​ # 5. Allocation: What actually deserves capital? The allocation stage reframes the question from “what’s moving?” to “what deserves capital now?”​ Overlaying the recent macro and sector behavior on this framework: * From my personal dashboard, synthetic sector indices and RS vs SPY show defensives and Energy as relative winners, and a chunk of growth under relative pressure.​ * Given upcoming macro catalysts—CPI, PPI, employment, retail sales, and the next FOMC decision in March—the risk of further rate repricing remains elevated. * Earnings season is not over; major tech, financials, and cyclicals still have reports lined up through March, keeping single‑stock gap risk high. https://preview.redd.it/7lnonscdjimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=e4672868255024df2f79332fa4cd02ad6726b510 Within that backdrop, a consistent **structural posture** might look like: * Overweight: Energy, Utilities, Staples, and selective Health Care—sectors with improving RS, positive ROC, and healthier volatility profiles.​ * Neutral to modest underweight: broad tech and high‑beta growth, with exposure concentrated in names where earnings visibility and AI/infra secular stories are actually being confirmed by numbers, not just by narrative. * Underweight: most speculative pockets where ROC has turned negative and RV ratios are expanding into macro uncertainty.​ https://preview.redd.it/z642iqvejimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b665192615ee89830a17662b38a58a9fa5bddd7a Conceptually, your benchmark‑aware book should tilt toward **quality yield and cash flow** while preserving optionality in AI and select tech, rather than the other way around.​ # 6. Execution Context & Trade Sourcing: How to express this now Execution context then asks: am I early, late, or aligned—and how hard should I press?​ https://preview.redd.it/qx675xegjimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=ed755e2df670742d89374354cba51c30fe7c0505 In this tape: * Weekly sector returns have already priced a meaningful rotation into defensives and Energy; you’re not early there. * However, macro path‑dependency (CPI, PPI, jobs, FOMC) means these leadership trends can persist if inflation keeps surprising on the sticky side and the Fed stays cautious.​ * Beta spreads versus SPY argue for expressing risk with **measured aggressiveness**—tilting toward lower‑beta leaders and using high‑beta names as satellites, not as the core.​ https://preview.redd.it/7bgw032ijimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=366f2e467d86561c5ee5576225aaa91d1c60c359 What does positioning actually look like: 1. **Core book** * Run a barbell of defensives and quality cyclicals versus the index, leaning into sectors where RS, participation, and volatility are aligned: Energy, Utilities, Staples, selective Health Care.​ * Target slightly lower portfolio beta than SPY, but maintain full notional exposure so you participate in upside without max‑drawdown behavior.​ 2. **Satellite book** * Maintain a curated basket of AI‑infrastructure and high‑quality tech names with upcoming catalysts you understand, funded by underweights in weaker RS sectors.​ * Treat these as trades, not as blind long‑term holds—use STIX momentum and risk validation layers to step in after volatility events, not ahead of them.​ 3. **Risk and sizing** * Let RV ratios and beta vs SPY determine size and leverage. Where vol is compressing and RS is strong, you can lean in; where vol is expanding, you scale down and shorten your holding period.​ * Use upcoming macro and earnings dates as hard constraints on position size; you should know which positions are “event bets” and which are structural.​ If you’re not interested in all the technical scaffolding, here is the "quick and dirty" version from my dashboard that compresses the entire decision funnel into a simple sector score—"**green** good, **red** bad". It tells you which sectors are currently institutionally endorsed, so you’re putting capital where the big money is actually leaning, not where it's leaving. https://preview.redd.it/ovao2gojjimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=fc7c145cec438c232957d8d74958bdeda0c1b828 From there, just have a look at top tickers in each favored sector via the Sector Leaders list, so the odds for long setups are stacked in your favor rather than left to gut feel. If you run with a short bias instead, you can do the same thing in reverse: look at what surfaced as the weakest names in the weakest sectors, so you can fade strength and press shorts where the tape and the institutions already agree. https://preview.redd.it/74ljo82ljimg1.jpg?width=1080&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=264c3e1734f8712a00f873ba90fab49201610841 The current “state of the union” is not bearish so much as **conditional**: the market is still paying you to take risk, but it is paying more for cash flow, resilience, and defensive participation than for raw growth beta.​ Good luck!

When a new customer signs on, the first few weeks of the relationship are make-or-break. As the founder of Satrix Solutions, I’ve seen time and again that a client’s early experiences will heavily influence their long-term loyalty. One of the most effective ways to ensure those early experiences are positive – and to address any hiccups quickly – is through a [well-crafted onboarding survey](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/programs/onboarding-implementation-survey/). In this post, I’ll share best practices for onboarding surveys, drawn from years of guiding B2B companies through customer experience improvements. We’ll cover what onboarding surveys are, why they matter so much (especially in B2B), and how to design and deploy them for maximum impact. Along the way, I’ll also discuss how these surveys fit into a broader Voice-of-Customer program, alongside other feedback channels like [win-loss analyses](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/programs/sales-win-loss-analysis/), [churn interviews](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/programs/customer-churn-analysis/), and [Customer Advisory Boards](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/programs/customer-advisory-board/). My goal is to provide you a comprehensive, insight-driven guide – in a conversational yet professional tone – that you can put to use immediately to strengthen your customer relationships. >Evan Klein, Founder – Satrix Solutions Effective onboarding surveys can truly be the linchpin of customer success. Let’s dive into the best practices, but first, we need to clarify exactly what we mean by an onboarding survey in a B2B context. # What Is a Customer Onboarding Survey? A customer onboarding survey is a feedback tool used to gauge a new client’s experience shortly after they’ve started using your product or service. In other words, once the implementation or onboarding phase is complete – whether that’s after a software go-live, completion of a training period, or the first 30 days of service – you reach out to the customer and ask: “How did we do? Did the onboarding meet your expectations and set you up for success?” This is not to be confused with an employee onboarding survey (which companies use to gather feedback from new hires about their job onboarding). Here, we’re focused on B2B customer onboarding surveys, targeting your clients (the companies you serve) and the key stakeholders who were involved in starting up your solution. The purpose is to capture their candid impressions about the onboarding process while the experience is still fresh. A typical onboarding survey will cover aspects like the quality of support and guidance provided, clarity of communication, and whether the delivery aligned with the promises made during sales. Essentially, you want to know if the customer’s early expectations were met and where there were gaps. Did the implementation go smoothly? Was the customer properly trained? Were there any unpleasant surprises or delays? This early-stage feedback provides an unfiltered view of where any handoffs or execution might have broken down. It’s like an initial report card on your onboarding: if there were mistakes, you learn about them immediately, and if things went well, you get positive reinforcement and possibly a new promoter for your business. At Satrix Solutions, we implement Onboarding and Implementation Survey programs for our B2B clients that run continuously. Rather than a one-off survey here or there, these are ongoing programs designed to capture feedback from each new customer shortly after they go live. This approach ensures you are continuously listening and improving. The survey itself is usually short and to the point – after all, your new client likely just invested significant time in onboarding, so you want to be respectful of their time now. But as we’ll discuss, short doesn’t mean shallow. The best onboarding surveys ask focused, relevant questions that yield actionable insights. In summary, a customer onboarding survey is your early warning system and opportunity for quick wins. By formally asking new clients “How did we do in onboarding?” you show them you care about their experience and you gain intelligence to refine your process. Next, let’s explore exactly why these surveys are so critical in the B2B world. # Why Onboarding Surveys Are Critical in B2B Customer Success Onboarding surveys matter because first impressions in B2B are everything. Unlike a casual consumer purchase, B2B engagements usually come with higher stakes – bigger price tags, longer commitments, complex integrations, and multiple stakeholders. If the onboarding phase of a B2B product or service goes poorly, the damage can be hard to undo. In fact, research confirms what many customer success professionals intuitively know: problems in onboarding are a strong predictor of future churn. Consider this striking statistic: 43% of client churn occurs within the first 90 days of the relationship. Think about that – nearly half of all churned customers leave in the first three months, essentially before they’ve even fully ramped up. Why? Because if a customer doesn’t see value early, or encounters lots of friction during implementation, their confidence in the partnership plummets. They may start seeking exit options or alternative providers almost immediately. Another industry analysis found that “over 20% of voluntary churn is linked to poor onboarding”. In other words, a weak onboarding process is one of the top (if not the top) reasons B2B customers decide to walk away and cancel. These numbers underscore a critical point: the onboarding period is the most critical window to get things right. A smooth, positive onboarding builds trust and momentum. The customer feels validated in their decision to choose your company. They start seeing the promised value of your solution, which in turn makes them more likely to stick around, adopt more features, and even become a champion for your product. Conversely, a rough onboarding (missed deadlines, poor communication, unmet expectations) plants seeds of doubt and regret. It can set a negative tone that even the best Customer Success Manager will struggle to overcome later. In B2B SaaS especially, we often talk about “time to value” – how quickly a customer realizes the benefits of the product. Onboarding is all about accelerating time to value. A strong onboarding experience has been directly linked to lower churn rates downstream, as vendors who get customers to value faster tend to retain them longer. As Peter McCoy of Baton (an implementation software platform) noted in a conversation I had with him: “It’s not surprising that software vendors who accelerate time-to-value via an improved implementation experience also lower churn rates”. Your onboarding survey helps you measure whether you are achieving that accelerated value delivery from your customer’s perspective. Beyond churn prevention, onboarding surveys signal to your clients that their voice matters from day one. You’re essentially saying: “We’re not just here to cash your check and move on; we’re invested in making you successful, and we’re humble enough to ask how we did and where we can improve.” This builds credibility. Many of our clients at Satrix Solutions find that simply deploying an onboarding survey program improves customer perceptions, because customers see that the company is eager to listen and improve. Finally, insights from onboarding surveys feed continuous improvement. They reveal patterns of over-promising or misalignment in the sales-to-service handoff. For example, if multiple new customers comment that certain promised features were missing or that training wasn’t sufficient, those are red flags that sales messaging and implementation need better alignment. Catching these issues early means you can fix the root cause before it affects more customers or leads to eventual churn or negative word-of-mouth. In summary, onboarding surveys are critical because they directly influence retention, [customer satisfaction](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/programs/customer-satisfaction-survey/), and long-term advocacy. They help you deliver on the promise you made during the sales cycle. As I often remind the companies we work with: you never get a second chance at a first impression. An onboarding survey is how you inspect and perfect that first impression in a structured way. Now that we’ve covered the “why,” let’s get practical about when and how to conduct these surveys for best results. # When to Send an Onboarding Survey to New Clients Timing is a crucial element of onboarding survey best practices. Send the survey too early, and the customer might not have fully formed an opinion or experienced enough to give meaningful feedback. Send it too late, and the rosy glow (or fresh frustrations) of the onboarding experience will have faded, or worse, small issues may have already grown into big problems. So, what’s the sweet spot? For most B2B scenarios, the ideal time to survey a customer is immediately after the onboarding or implementation phase is complete. That often translates to about 30 days after go-live for a software product, or after roughly one month of using the service. In some cases, it might be 60 or 90 days if your solution’s value takes longer to materialize. The key is to define what “onboarding complete” means in your context – it could be after the customer’s team has been trained and the product is fully deployed, or after the first successful use case is achieved. At that point, the customer can assess the onboarding journey holistically. For example, in one SaaS company we advised, the trigger was 14 days post-implementation, because their product’s onboarding was fairly quick and they wanted to address any issues before the third week of usage. Another enterprise software client waited 45 days after go-live, so that the users had a chance to really dig in and the initial support period had passed. My rule of thumb: survey as soon as the customer can reasonably answer questions about the onboarding experience, but not before. It’s also important that onboarding surveys become a standard, ongoing practice and not a one-off project. Best-in-class companies integrate onboarding surveys into their customer journey map as a permanent checkpoint. Every new client who passes milestone X (X = end of onboarding) gets the survey. This ongoing programmatic approach ensures you’re continuously gathering that early feedback. In fact, Onboarding Survey programs are often run year-round, capturing feedback from each cohort of new customers. This cadence is something we emphasize at Satrix Solutions – treat it like part of the product launch process for the customer. As soon as they’ve launched, the feedback loop launches too. One more nuance on timing: If your onboarding process is lengthy or phased, you might consider a pulse survey at multiple stages. For instance, a complex implementation might include a survey after the initial kickoff or after a training session, as well as a survey at final go-live. However, be careful not to over-survey and overwhelm a new customer. If you choose multiple touchpoints, keep them very short and manage expectations (“This 2-question check-in helps us ensure we’re on track”). Otherwise, a single survey after the full onboarding is usually sufficient. In terms of day-to-day timing, send the survey when the customer’s workload allows focus. Avoid sending it on a chaotic go-live day or quarter-end. Many teams send onboarding surveys via email a week or so after the last onboarding task is done, and often on a Tuesday or Wednesday morning when recipients are more likely to have a few minutes to respond. Lastly, pair timing with personal context: have the customer’s Account Manager or Customer Success Manager let them know to expect the survey. A heads-up like “We’d love your feedback on the onboarding in a brief survey next week” during your final onboarding meeting can increase response rates because the customer is primed for it. By sending the survey at the right moment – when the experience is fresh but the stress of onboarding has slightly abated – you maximize the chances of getting thoughtful, actionable feedback. Next, we’ll look at what exactly to ask in that survey and how to design it for success. # How to Design an Effective Onboarding Survey Designing the onboarding survey is where art meets science. You need to ask the right questions in the right way to uncover meaningful insights without tiring or irritating the respondent. Here are the core best practices for survey design: # Keep the Survey Short and Focused An onboarding survey should be concise. I generally recommend aiming for about 5 to 10 questions total. Remember, your clients are busy, and at this stage they may already have spent significant time with your team during onboarding. Respect their time by only asking what you truly need to know. A focused survey tends to yield higher response rates and more thoughtful answers to each question. It’s better to have five golden questions that most customers answer, than twenty questions that many abandon halfway. Focus on the critical aspects of the onboarding experience: was the customer’s objective achieved? Did your team meet expectations? Are there any unresolved issues? # Ask Clear, Relevant Questions Covering Key Topics Your questions should zoom in on the essential elements of the onboarding process. Based on our earlier discussion and Satrix’s methodology, the survey should cover: # Overall Satisfaction with the Onboarding “How satisfied are you with the overall onboarding experience?” (Likert scale or 1-10 rating) # Quality of Support/Guidance “Did our team provide the support and guidance you needed during implementation?” This addresses the human element – were your onboarding specialists knowledgeable, responsive, and helpful? A positive comment here like “the implementation team was very knowledgeable and well prepared” is gold, whereas a critique like “support was weak post-launch” flags a problem. # Quality of Support/Guidance “Did our team provide the support and guidance you needed during implementation?” This addresses the human element – were your onboarding specialists knowledgeable, responsive, and helpful? A positive comment here like “the implementation team was very knowledgeable and well prepared” is gold, whereas a critique like “support was weak post-launch” flags a problem. # Clarity of Communication “How clear and effective was our communication during onboarding?” Miscommunication or silence during onboarding is a common pain point you want to catch. # Expectation Alignment “Did the onboarding deliver on the expectations set during the sales process?” This question is crucial. Often in B2B, sales teams promise the moon. An onboarding survey can reveal if the customer felt they got what was sold. (One client of ours learned from survey feedback that several customers felt the process was not as seamless as promised and training was too limited, indicating over-promising by sales and a need to adjust pre-sale messaging or improve training.) # Time-to-Value “Do you feel you started realizing value from our solution within an appropriate timeframe?” This probes whether the onboarding was efficient or if delays harmed the experience. # Open-Ended Question Always include at least one open text question such as “What could we have done better to improve your onboarding experience?” or “Any additional comments on your onboarding?” This is where you often get the most candid and specific feedback – the unvarnished truth or a great quote. For example, one might say, “The process was more complicated than it needed to be, slowing down our time to launch” or “We were impressed that the implementation finished ahead of schedule.” Both comments are incredibly valuable in understanding what’s working and what’s not. Make sure each question is worded simply and unambiguously. Avoid internal jargon or overly technical language unless you’re sure the customer speaks it fluently. A clear question yields a clear answer. # Include a Mix of Rating and Open-Ended Questions As hinted above, a good mix might be a few rating-scale questions for [quantitative tracking](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/research-methods/surveys/) and one or two open-ended responses for [qualitative insight](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/research-methods/qualitative-in-depth-interviews/). For instance, a 0-10 scale question on overall satisfaction will let you quantify trends over time and even correlate onboarding satisfaction with eventual renewal rates. Meanwhile, an open-ended follow-up captures the “why” behind those numbers. This combination is powerful: the numbers tell you if there might be an issue, the comments tell you what the issue is. # Align Questions with Onboarding Stages or Milestones If your onboarding has distinct phases (e.g. kickoff, implementation, training, go-live), ensure the survey touches on the most salient ones. You might even structure a question per phase – “Rate your experience during the kickoff phase,” “How was the training session?” etc. – though only do this if each phase is significant and you intend to act on that specific feedback. Otherwise, stick to high-level facets that encompass the whole journey. # Maintain a Neutral Tone and Anonymity Option To get honest feedback, questions should be phrased neutrally (avoid leading language like “How excellent was our training?” – that biases the answer). Also consider whether the survey should be confidential or anonymous to the delivery team. In many B2B contexts, the customer knows their responses will likely be seen by their CSM or onboarding manager. If you worry that might make them hold back, you can either assure them that feedback is aggregated, or even use a third party to administer the survey. As an unbiased partner, Satrix Solutions often conducts these surveys on behalf of our clients specifically to encourage candid feedback – customers tend to be more frank with a neutral intermediary. By following these design principles, you’ll craft an onboarding survey that is straightforward for the customer and insightful for you. Every question should have a purpose. If you read through your survey draft and can’t immediately think of how you would act on each answer, that question might not be needed. Design is only half the battle – you also need people to respond. In the next section, we’ll discuss tips for maximizing those response rates and getting robust feedback. # Maximizing Onboarding Survey Response Rates Even the best-designed survey is useless if nobody fills it out. Getting busy executives or end-users to respond to an onboarding survey can be a challenge, but there are proven tactics to boost participation: # Make It Personal and Predicated on Improvement A generic “Dear customer, please take our survey” email might get ignored. Instead, have the request come from a person they recognize and trust. For example, a note from the Customer Success Manager or even a senior executive (like a VP of Customer Success or the CEO for a small client list) can go a long way. The message should convey: “We genuinely value your feedback and will use it to improve.” One approach I’ve seen work is mentioning that the team will discuss the feedback in an upcoming internal meeting to make enhancements – this signals that their time won’t be wasted. In B2B relationships, customers are often happy to help you improve, especially if framed as “help us help you better in the future.” # Keep It Short (Reiterating for Response Rate) We said this in design, but it bears repeating: advertise up front that the survey is brief. For instance: “It’s 5 questions and will take about 3 minutes of your time.” Busy professionals appreciate knowing it won’t be a 30-minute ordeal. And then ensure you live up to that promise. # Timing and Channels Matter for Response Send the survey at a time when the respondent is least occupied. Avoid end of quarter or major holidays. Mid-morning on a weekday often works, but know your audience – if they tend to travel Monday, maybe Wednesday is better. Also, consider sending a **calendar invite** or including the survey link in a follow-up to a meeting when the experience is fresh. Some companies even have the CSM do the survey together with the client as part of an onboarding review call (though this might reduce candor on sensitive points). Email is the standard channel, but for some client bases, a quick phone call or in-app notification could supplement it. Use whatever channels you’ve observed get the best engagement from that customer. # Follow-Up, but Lightly It’s okay to send a reminder if you haven’t heard back in, say, a week. Often, people intend to respond but it slips their mind. A polite follow-up that says, “We’d still love to hear your thoughts; the survey link is here again for your convenience,” can bump your response rate by a good margin. However, don’t badger the customer with too many reminders – one, or at most two, gentle nudges suffice. # Offer to Share What You Learned One ethical incentive for B2B surveys is telling customers you will share aggregate findings or key changes made as a result of the feedback. For example, “We’ll be compiling the feedback and will report back to our clients what we’re improving.” This creates a sense of collaboration and accountability. Clients feel their input will not vanish into a black hole. Be sure to follow through: if customers took the time to give feedback, closing the loop by saying “Here’s what we heard and what we’re changing” not only encourages future responses, it builds trust. # Third-Party Administration for Candor and Convenience I mentioned earlier that using a third-party like Satrix Solutions to conduct the survey can increase candor. It can also sometimes increase response rates because the request is coming from an independent voice specializing in feedback collection, which might feel more confidential. One of our advantages is achieving high response rates due to our tailored approach and neutrality. We often introduce ourselves to our clients’ customers as a partner dedicated to gathering their honest input. Customers appreciate that the company invested in an outside expert to listen to them – it underscores how seriously their feedback is taken. By implementing these strategies, you can typically achieve a strong response rate for onboarding surveys. In many B2B programs we manage, response rates of 50-75% are attainable (depending on how many individuals are surveyed at each client). Remember, quality of response is as important as quantity – a thoughtful answer from the key decision-maker is more valuable than 10 perfunctory checkbox responses from less engaged users. So target the survey to the right people (usually the primary stakeholder in the onboarding, plus perhaps a few end-users or the project manager on the client side), and make your outreach count. Okay, so you’ve got good survey design and people are responding. Now comes the most important part: doing something with those responses. We’ll turn to how to act on the feedback next. # Acting on Feedback: Using Onboarding Survey Results to Drive Improvement Collecting feedback is only worthwhile if you act on it. In fact, asking for feedback and then ignoring it can be worse than not asking at all, because it breeds cynicism. So, what should you do once the onboarding survey responses start coming in? # Acknowledge and Close the Loop with Clients For every respondent who gives substantive feedback, especially if they raised a concern or issue, have someone reach out to thank them and address their specific comments. This might be a direct phone call or email from the Customer Success Manager saying, “Thank you for completing our onboarding survey. We noticed you were dissatisfied with the training materials. I want you to know we take that seriously. Our team is already discussing improvements, and I’d love to hear any suggestions you have. Also, I can provide you with additional training on topics X and Y to ensure you’re fully comfortable.” Such follow-up shows the client that their voice was heard and that you’re committed to making things right. It’s a critical step in turning a neutral or unhappy customer into a satisfied one. Even for those who were happy, a thank you note and a bit of “glad to hear it went well; we’re here if you need anything” goes a long way. # Identify Themes and Root Causes Don’t view each survey in isolation. Compile results over a quarter or two and look for patterns. Do 3 out of 10 clients mention that the onboarding felt rushed? Did multiple people say communication was unclear at a certain stage? Are your satisfaction scores consistently lower on “delivery aligns with expectations” than on other items? These themes point to broader issues. Maybe your onboarding process is overly complicated or slows down time-to-value. Perhaps there’s a systematic misalignment where Sales is promising things that Implementation struggles to deliver. Or maybe your support team isn’t as responsive during onboarding as they should be, leading to comments like those we’ve seen: “post-launch customer service is weak”. Each theme you discover is pure gold, because it gives you a clear mandate on where to improve. When analyzing, I find it helpful to categorize feedback into buckets like: Process Issues, Communication Issues, Product Gaps, Training/Support Issues, Expectation Mismatch, and Praise/Positives (don’t ignore those; they tell you what to keep doing well!). For each category that has multiple mentions, dig into the root cause. For instance, if “training was insufficient” comes up often, root cause might be that your training session is too short, or the documentation is lacking, or the trainer wasn’t given enough resources. Fixing the root cause might involve the training team updating materials or adding a session. # Share Insights Across the Organization Onboarding touches many parts of your company – Sales (who set expectations), Product (which must work as advertised), Implementation/Professional Services, Support, maybe even Finance (if contracting or invoicing is part of early impressions). It’s vital to socialize the feedback internally. I recommend having a regular meeting or report where you present onboarding survey findings to all stakeholders. Highlight the positive feedback to give teams a pat on the back, and spotlight the negative or constructive feedback to drive home what needs to change. If your survey uncovered, say, that “the handoff from sales to onboarding was messy”, bring Sales and Delivery leads together to brainstorm solutions (maybe a formalized handover meeting or document). If customers say “the product didn’t meet our expectations in X area”, take that to the product management team to investigate if requirements were missed or if Sales misunderstood the capability. A great practice is to take one improvement action for each major theme and track it. For example, if the theme is “client didn’t feel informed during onboarding,” an action could be “implement a weekly progress update email during projects.” Then, on subsequent onboarding surveys, watch if scores/comments improve on that front. This is continuous improvement in action. # Leverage Positive Feedback for Advocacy Don’t forget to celebrate wins! If a client praises your onboarding in the survey – perhaps they said something like, “The implementation was very smooth compared with prior experiences”, or they gave a 10/10 score – that’s an opportunity. You might ask that client for a testimonial or case study down the line, given their great experience. And internally, recognize the team members who delivered that stellar onboarding. At Satrix, when we capture glowing comments for our clients like “the team was flexible to accommodate our short timeline”, we encourage them to share those comments in team meetings or newsletters. It boosts morale and reinforces the behaviors that led to success. # Incorporate Feedback into Onboarding Process Improvements Make the feedback actionable. If multiple surveys point out issues in onboarding documentation, commit to revamping those materials. If clients are asking for more integration help during onboarding, maybe that becomes a new step in the process. Essentially, use the survey results as a checklist for enhancing your onboarding playbook. Some companies create a formal action plan after each quarter’s worth of onboarding feedback, detailing what will be changed or experimented with in the next quarter’s onboarding. This kind of responsiveness can dramatically improve your onboarding effectiveness over time. >Evan Klein, Founder – Satrix Solutions By diligently acting on onboarding survey feedback, you effectively create a feedback-driven improvement loop. Each new customer’s input helps make the next customer’s onboarding experience even better. Over time, this can become a competitive advantage – your onboarding becomes a well-oiled machine that buyers have heard good things about. In fact, I’ve observed cases where prospects chose a provider because they had a reputation for great onboarding and support. That reputation often starts with listening and improving continuously based on surveys and interviews. Now that we’ve covered how to use the feedback in the context of onboarding itself, let’s zoom out and see how onboarding surveys integrate into the bigger picture of a Voice of Customer program. # Integrating Onboarding Surveys into a Holistic VoC Program Onboarding surveys are a key piece of the puzzle, but they’re still one piece of a larger customer feedback mosaic. In a robust Voice of Customer (VoC) program, you gather insights at multiple touchpoints throughout the customer lifecycle. It’s important to connect the dots between these different feedback sources to get a 360-degree view of customer experience. Here’s how onboarding surveys fit in alongside a few other critical VoC components that many B2B companies (and certainly Satrix Solutions clients) utilize: # Win-Loss Analysis Long before onboarding happens, a win-loss analysis program is examining why deals are won or lost. You might wonder, how is that relevant to onboarding? Well, insights from win-loss interviews can help you understand the expectations set during the sales process and what prospects care about. That in turn informs how you onboard. For example, if win-loss interviews reveal that prospects who didn’t buy were worried about a difficult implementation, you can double down on making your onboarding a selling point. Conversely, things you learn in onboarding surveys (like common implementation challenges) can be fed back to the sales process to avoid overpromising in those areas. Win-loss interviews target decision-makers after a deal closes (won or lost) to uncover perceptions of the sales experience and reasons for the decision. By linking win-loss data with onboarding feedback, you ensure that any gaps in what Sales sold versus what Delivery delivered are addressed systematically. It’s all about consistency across the customer journey. **Customer Churn Analysis** On the opposite end of the lifecycle, churn analysis digs into why customers leave. We conduct churn interviews (or surveys) with recently lost customers to identify the drivers of their departure. Not surprisingly, issues with onboarding often surface in churn interviews. If a customer didn’t get value or felt neglected early, it might contribute to their decision to exit later. In fact, as we discussed, a significant portion of churn is linked back to the onboarding stage. So, by comparing notes between onboarding survey responses and churn reasons, you can validate if the red flags raised early (but perhaps not addressed sufficiently) turned into reasons for churn. For instance, if your onboarding surveys consistently indicated “the product didn’t meet expectations” and churn interviews later cite “product lacked expected features,” you have a straight line connecting the two – and a clear mandate to fix that gap far before more customers churn. Customer churn analysis programs aim to uncover those root causes of attrition, and ideally, your onboarding improvements will reduce the frequency of seeing certain causes in the churn reports. As a best practice, many companies treat onboarding survey data as predictive churn data – if a new client rates onboarding poorly, that account might need extra attention to prevent them from becoming a churn statistic. # Customer Advisory Boards (CABs) While onboarding surveys capture the new customer perspective, Customer Advisory Boards capture the perspective of your long-term, strategic customers. A CAB is typically a forum of select executive clients who meet with your leadership a couple of times a year to provide high-level feedback and discuss strategic direction. CABs are an excellent complement to surveys: they allow deep dive discussions, future-looking insights, and validation of ideas. The reason they belong in this conversation is that a holistic VoC program ensures you’re listening at all stages – new customers (onboarding), at-risk or former customers (churn analysis), ongoing satisfaction (regular [NPS®](https://www.satrixsolutions.com/programs/net-promoter-score/) or relationship surveys), and top customers (CABs). Parchment, one of our clients featured in a success story, exemplifies this holistic approach – they have an NPS program plus a robust Customer Advisory Board and even an annual user conference to gather feedback. These channels together provide a continuous feedback loop from day 1 to year 5 and beyond. How do you integrate them? It can be as simple as cross-referencing insights. If CAB members (your veteran customers) are all pointing out a weakness in your product, ensure you’re asking about that in onboarding surveys too (to see if new customers spot it immediately). Or use CAB meetings to share what you’ve learned from onboarding surveys across many customers – your CAB can then advise if those onboarding pain points resonate with their own memories or if they have suggestions to address them. Another integration point: have the findings from win-loss, onboarding, regular health surveys, and churn all feed into one unified voice-of-customer dashboard or report. We often help clients build VoC dashboards that show, for example, the customer satisfaction trajectory from onboarding to year 1 to year 2, correlated with retention outcomes. This can reveal powerful insights like “Customers who reported a smooth onboarding have a 90% renewal rate, whereas those who were unhappy in onboarding have only a 60% renewal rate.” Such evidence can rally executive support for investing in better onboarding processes or resources. In practice, aligning these feedback programs might involve an internal VoC committee or regular cross-functional meetings (Customer Success, Sales, Product, etc.) to review all feedback data holistically. The bottom line is that onboarding surveys should not live in a silo. They are one of the earliest signals in your customer experience journey. When combined with later signals (like usage data, support tickets, NPS scores, CAB insights), you get a richer picture. And many times, improving something at onboarding will have ripple effects that improve those later-stage metrics as well (for example, better onboarding might lead to higher product adoption, which leads to higher NPS, which leads to more upsells – a virtuous chain). A holistic approach also prevents tunnel vision. You don’t want, say, the onboarding team optimizing one aspect of experience at the expense of another that Sales or Support cares about. The voice of customer needs to be unified. At Satrix Solutions, we pride ourselves on helping companies knit these pieces together. It’s gratifying to see our clients use onboarding survey results alongside win-loss and churn findings to craft comprehensive action plans that touch all stages of the lifecycle. That’s when customer experience management really becomes strategic. Alright, we’ve covered a lot of ground – from definition and importance of onboarding surveys to the nitty-gritty of executing them and integrating them into broader programs. Let’s wrap up with a few final thoughts. # Onboarding Surveys as a Foundation for Long-Term Customer Success Every B2B company wants loyal customers who stick around, grow their business with you, and sing your praises to others. While many factors influence that loyalty over the years, a solid foundation is laid in those first few weeks or months after the deal is signed. Onboarding surveys are one of the most potent tools you have to ensure that foundation is strong. By following the best practices we’ve discussed – timing the survey right, crafting clear and relevant questions, driving high response rates, and crucially, acting on the feedback – you create a feedback-driven onboarding process that continuously gets better. You’re essentially building an early warning system for customer health. Issues that might have silently festered (and later caused dissatisfaction or churn) are brought to light when there’s still time to fix them. Successes that might have gone unappreciated are recognized, allowing you to replicate and scale what’s working. Let me share a brief anecdote: A client of ours was experiencing a puzzling churn problem – they had a trickle of customers leaving at around the one-year mark, citing that the product “never fully delivered the promised impact.” We implemented an onboarding survey for them, and within a couple of months a pattern emerged in the feedback: new customers felt overwhelmed during implementation and weren’t fully using the product’s key features. Essentially, they never reached first value, so a year later they’d churn. By catching this theme early, the company revamped their onboarding training, added a midpoint check-in survey, and provided extra hand-holding on feature adoption. The result? Their onboarding satisfaction scores rose, and churn at one year dropped significantly. The onboarding survey program directly contributed to improved retention and customer lifetime value. It’s a testament to how listening early can change the trajectory of a customer relationship. In closing, think of an onboarding survey as both a mirror and a bridge. It’s a mirror because it reflects back how your team performed during a critical stage – sometimes the reflection is flattering, sometimes it shows warts that need removing. And it’s a bridge because it connects you to your customer’s mindset and emotions at a pivotal moment, strengthening the relationship through communication and action. When customers see you implementing their feedback, that bridge leads to trust and loyalty.

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